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We're building one-click trade execution straight to your Polymarket/Kalshi account — reply if you want early access.

Player Prop Picks

Giancarlo Stanton OVER 0.5 Hits
Stanton is clearing 0.5+ hits in 80% of games across every window — last 7 days, last 30, and 2026. He's averaging 0.9 H/G at Yankee Stadium over his career. All 4 reasons favor the over.

Starling Marte OVER 0.5 Hits
Marte is clearing 0.5+ hits in 67% of games across every window — last 7 days, last 30, and 2026. He's averaging 1.8 H/G at Kauffman Stadium over his career. All 4 reasons favor the over.

Nolan Arenado OVER 0.5 Hits
Arenado is clearing 0.5+ hits in 64–67% of games across every window — last 7 days, last 30, and 2026. He's averaging 0.8 H/G at Citi Field over his career. All 4 reasons favor the over.

Best Buys

Inside Edge x Monte Carmelo
Today's Plays
Thursday, April 9 · Prices via Polymarket
Over 7.5 +9%
Reds at Marlins · 12:10p ET
Buy at 53¢ or lower. IE true odds are ~62%. Target a sell at 66¢ or hold through.
Lowder owns the lowest strike rate when behind in the count among qualified starters (51%). Meyer throws his slider 62% of the time when behind — highest in MLB — and opponents bat .301 against his non-fastballs (third-worst). Both starters leak contact in hitter's counts, and IE's over-8 confidence sits at 62%.
Over 8.5 +7%
Athletics at Yankees · 1:35p ET
Buy at 46¢ or lower. IE true odds are ~53%. Target a sell at 57¢ or hold through.
Judge slugged .498 on non-fastballs last season (15th-best) and Springs throws off-speed 52% of the time (9th-highest among qualified SPs). Jazz Chisholm has a 32% miss rate on outside fastballs and Springs locates away 68% with two strikes — highest in MLB. 62% of Grisham's Ks are looking, and 56% of Springs' Ks are looking. Lots of zone-edge chess, lots of damage when contact lands.
Under 8.5 +5%
Tigers at Twins · 1:40p ET
Buy at 48¢ or lower. IE true odds are ~53%. Target a sell at 57¢ or hold through.
Flaherty locates his fastball down 40% of the time (11th-highest) and throws low pitches 65% against right-handers (highest in MLB). Buxton strikes out 27% of PAs and has the worst miss rate on fastballs down in the league. Flaherty's breaking-ball usage reaches 44–49% in key counts. IE's under-8 confidence is 53% — the extra half-run at 8.5 adds cushion.
Kansas City −0.5%
Moneyline vs White Sox · 7:40p ET
IE true odds are 62.5% and market is at 63¢. Fairly priced. Buy & hold at 62¢ or lower.
Lugo has posted a 69% strike rate (5th-highest among qualified SPs) and allowed just a .111 OBP the first time through the order (tied-4th-best). He throws 56% of pitches in the zone versus lefties (tied-2nd-highest). Chicago's Sosa and Vargas struggle on breaking pitches, and Lugo leans on his curve heavily. No edge at current price, but dominant matchup if it dips.
San Diego −2.4%
Moneyline vs Rockies · 9:40p ET
IE true odds are 61.6% but market is at 64¢. Wait for a dip to 60¢ or lower before buying.
Vasquez has limited right-handed batters to a .143 SLG this season (tied-7th-best). Jordan Beck is slugging just .120 (10th-worst). Colorado's contact-oriented approach meets a pitcher with a 16% miss rate — the lowest among qualifiers — making this a grind rather than a blowout. IE likes San Diego but the market's already there.
New York Yankees −4.6%
Moneyline vs Athletics · 1:35p ET
IE true odds are 62.4% but market is at 67¢. Wait for a dip to 61¢ or lower before buying.
Yankees are 8-3 and the matchup favors them — Judge's power versus Springs' off-speed approach is volatile. But at 67¢ the market has overshot IE's 62.4% confidence. The total is where the value lives today (see Over 8.5 above). Patience on the moneyline.
New York Mets −5.6%
Moneyline vs Diamondbacks · 7:10p ET
IE true odds are 55.4% but market is at 61¢. Wait for a dip to 54¢ or lower before buying.
McLean has allowed just a .139 average and .229 OPS the first time through the order, but walks 37% of batters to three-ball counts (highest among qualified SPs). Rodriguez has allowed a .681 SLG to leadoff batters (2nd-highest) and opponents hit .301 on his non-fastballs. Lindor and Bichette own the matchup edges, but IE's 55.4% is well below the market — too rich at 61¢.

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All Games

Thursday, April 9 · 6 games · Prices in ¢ = implied win probability · Polymarket
Day
Game Time ML Spread O/U
CIN @ MIA 12:10p MIA 53¢ CIN +1.5 @ 64¢ 7.5 · O 53¢
ATH @ NYY 1:35p NYY 67¢ ATH +1.5 @ 51¢ 8.5 · O 46¢
DET @ MIN 1:40p DET 55¢ DET -1.5 @ 42¢ 8.5 · O 47¢
Evening
Game Time ML Spread O/U
AZ @ NYM 7:10p NYM 61¢ AZ +1.5 @ 59¢ 7.5 · O 45¢
CWS @ KC 7:40p KC 63¢ CWS +1.5 @ 54¢ 9.5 · O 47¢
COL @ SD 9:40p SD 64¢ COL +1.5 @ 54¢ 8.5 · O 45¢
Prices in ¢ = implied win probability. Green = 56%+ favorite. Source: Polymarket US

Best Games to Live Trade

The 4-7 Athletics send Jeffrey Springs against Ryan Weathers and the 8-3 Yankees. Springs is a crafty lefty who gets better as the game goes on — hitters batted just .181 against him the third time through last season — and he attacks with his slider when behind (41%, 2nd-highest among SPs). Weathers is hittable early (.533 SLG allowed first time through) and leaks too much with two strikes. The bullpen gap is massive: Oakland's pen has the worst OBP allowed in baseball and a 9.20 ERA at home, while New York's relievers lead MLB with a 55% two-strike K rate.

» Buy NYY at 66¢ or lower — if Springs shuts down early innings and the line dips, that's your entry. Once Oakland goes to the pen, price should climb, sell there or hold through.

ATH @ NYY · 1:35p ET

Colorado sends lefty Brennan Bernardino to Petco against righty Randy Vasquez and the Padres. Vasquez is a ground-ball machine — 69% rate against righties (2nd-highest among SPs) — and punishes first-pitch aggression (.227 opponent avg on pitch one). Colorado's offense has been the weakest early-game group in the NL, scoring the fewest runs through five innings since 2024. San Diego crushes left-handed pitching — lowest K rate in baseball against lefties (18%) — and Machado, Merrill, and Laureano all feast on the curveball that Bernardino throws 31% of the time.

» Buy SD at 63¢ or lower — Vasquez should keep Colorado quiet through five, and if the Padres lead at that point, price climbs. Sell there or hold through: San Diego's pen allows just .614 OPS vs. righties (best in MLB) and strikes out 47% of two-strike hitters. Don't chase if Colorado leads early — their pen walks very few (5%, 2nd-best) and could keep it close.

COL @ SD · 9:40p ET

Player Trends

🔥 Kyle Schwarber has a 10-game streak of reaching base safely, starting on March 29th.

🔥 George Springer has a 11-game streak of reaching base safely, starting on March 28th.

🔥 Matt Wallner has a five-game hit streak, starting on April 4th.

🧊 Rafael Marchan is hitless in his last 13 ABs dating back to March 30th.

🧊 Heliot Ramos has no extra-base-hits in his last 42 at-bats.

🧊 Julio Rodriguez has no extra-base-hits in his last 52 at-bats.

Fantasy Picks

Josh Bell · MIN · 1B · vs Jack Flaherty
Bell has an OPS of .935 in 78 AB's against right-handers who depend on the fastball like Flaherty over the last 2 seasons.

Francisco Lindor · NYM · SS · vs Eduardo Rodriguez
Lindor is slugging .535 in his last 48 PA's against bottom tier left-handers like Rodriguez over the last 2 seasons.

Bo Bichette · NYM · SS · vs Eduardo Rodriguez
Bichette has taken Rodriguez deep 2 times in his last 14 PA's against him.

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