Game: Hawks vs Heat

Pick: Over 227.5 Total Points

Why: Atlanta’s up-tempo approach under Trae Young consistently pushes the pace, creating more possessions and high-scoring potential. At the same time, the Hawks’ spotty interior defense—especially when Onyeka Okongwu rests—gives Miami’s increasingly confident shooters room to exploit. With both teams chasing crucial playoff positioning, expect a back-and-forth battle that includes late-game fouling and enough offensive surges to clear the 227.5-point threshold.

Game: Lakers vs Bulls

Pick: Under 241.5 Total Points

Why: The Lakers may opt for a more deliberate tempo to conserve energy after a grueling schedule, using half-court sets to let LeBron James orchestrate. Both teams are still jockeying for playoff positioning, which typically means heightened defensive intensity and tighter rotations. Because 241.5 is such a lofty total, one cold-shooting quarter or slowed pace in crunch time can easily keep the final score below that number.

Game: Mavs vs Magic

Pick: Over 219 Total Points

Why: Dallas has soared above the 219 mark in 10 straight games, propelled by a potent perimeter attack and shaky defense. Orlando’s offense, led by rising star Paolo Banchero, has embraced a faster pace that feeds into high-scoring outcomes. Neither team is known for a lockdown defensive identity, making a final tally north of 219 points all the more probable.

Game: Spurs vs Cavs

Pick: San Antonio Spurs +13.5

Why: The Spurs have shown flashes of competitiveness lately and are often undervalued by the betting market. Cleveland is missing a key interior presence in Evan Mobley, and the Cavs haven’t consistently covered large spreads this season. With a back-to-back looming for Cleveland, minute-management and potential complacency could open the door for a Spurs backdoor cover.

Game: Houston Rockets (45-20) at Utah Jazz (20-45), 9:00 PM ET
Pick: Houston Rockets -12.5
Why: Houston is on a 10-of-11 tear, while the Jazz have dropped 13 of their last 14 and are missing key players like Lauri Markkanen, John Collins, and Jordan Clarkson. The Rockets’ balanced offense—anchored by Jalen Green, Alperen Sengun, and Fred VanVleet—can exploit Utah’s patchwork lineup. With Houston motivated by playoff seeding and Utah prioritizing development, look for the Rockets to roll by double digits

Game: Memphis Grizzlies at Oklahoma City Thunder, 8:00 PM ET
Pick: Oklahoma City Thunder -10.5
Why: The Thunder have a league-best +12.9 point differential and consistently dominate on both ends of the floor. With Ja Morant out, Memphis lacks the high-level shot creation needed to keep pace with Oklahoma City’s explosive offense. The Thunder’s strong home-court advantage and recent string of double-digit victories make them the more reliable side to cover this spread.

1) Arizona at Duke
Top-seeded Duke and fourth-seeded Arizona collide in a Sweet 16 rematch, with the Blue Devils owning the nation’s top KenPom offense and an average NCAA Tourney margin of +33.5. Cooper Flagg and Tyrese Proctor fuel Duke’s firepower (15th in offensive rebounding), but they must contend with a resurgent Caleb Love (29 points last round) and Arizona’s own glass-eating attack (15th in O-boards). Expect an up-tempo clash (Duke ranks 56th) where perimeter defense (Duke 314th, Arizona 351st in 3PT D) and free-throw prowess (Arizona 77.6%) could decide who dances on. 🔥🏀

2) Arkansas at Texas Tech
No. 3 Texas Tech meets No. 10 Arkansas in a thrilling Sweet 16 showdown at Chase Center, as the Red Raiders ride a potent offense (10.1 threes per game at 37.1%) and a +13.2 scoring margin. JT Toppin (25 pts, 12 reb vs Drake) and Darrion Williams (28 pts) anchor Tech’s attack, ranked 5th in spacing and 12th in rim pressure per ShotQuality. Coach John Calipari’s Razorbacks counter with a top-7 transition offense, featuring freshman Billy Richmond (16 pts last upset), hoping to outrun Tech’s sharpshooters. 🔥🏀

3) BYU at Alabama (Version 1)
No. 6 BYU battles No. 2 Alabama in a lightning-fast Sweet 16 clash, featuring the nation’s top tempo (ShotQuality #1) and monstrous scoring (over 90 points per game) on the Crimson Tide side. While Alabama excels at finishing inside (60.2% on twos) and pushing pace, BYU counters with a rim-attacking (4th) and floor-spacing offense that has topped 85 points in seven of its last 10 games. With both squads ranking top 10 in offensive efficiency but struggling from the arc (Bama 348th in 3PT D, BYU 22nd in 3PT attempts), expect a high-scoring thriller decided by who locks down late. 🔥🏀

4) BYU at Alabama (Version 2)
In another Sweet 16 showdown, No. 6 BYU (9th in adjusted offense) collides with No. 3 Alabama (4th in adjusted offense), both primed for a scoring frenzy. The Crimson Tide’s top-ranked tempo and rim pressure meet the Cougars’ sixth-ranked effective field goal percentage and 74th-rated pace, setting the stage for a shootout. With both teams yielding quality perimeter looks (Bama 340th, BYU 248th in 3PT defense), it’s likely the last squad standing in the final minutes marches on. 🔥🏀

5) Maryland at Florida
Top-seeded Florida (32-4) locks horns with No. 4 Maryland (27-8) in a Sweet 16 duel at Chase Center, showcasing the Gators’ second-ranked offense and fierce offensive rebounding (4th). Walter Clayton Jr. (23 points vs UConn) leads Florida’s attack (29th in 3PT shooting, 22nd attacking the rim), while Derik Queen and Julian Reese anchor Maryland’s sixth-ranked defense and deliver clutch moments. Look for a test of depth versus star power as Florida’s nine-man rotation meets a Terrapins squad that leans heavily on its starters in this high-stakes battle. 🔥🏀

Cubs vs. Diamondbacks
Arizona opens its season at home against the Cubs, with Zac Gallen facing off against Justin Steele. The Cubs hope to spark their offense after two early losses to the Dodgers in Tokyo, bolstered by a power injection from new arrival Kyle Tucker. Meanwhile, Arizona’s offense remains formidable even after roster changes, led by Corbin Carroll and Ketel Marte. Bettors may eye the strong Under trend in their head-to-head matchups, though both lineups have star potential.

Twins vs. Cardinals
Pablo Lopez squares off against Sonny Gray to begin this three-game set in St. Louis. Both pitchers struggled in spring but carry track records of success, setting the tone for a competitive opener. Minnesota looks to rebound after a disappointing finish in 2024, while St. Louis aims to build on an 83-win season. Key trends point toward Cardinals success at home openers, yet the Twins’ powerful lineup can shift the balance.

Tigers vs. Dodgers
Detroit opens its season by challenging the reigning champion Dodgers at Dodger Stadium, featuring Cy Young winners Tarik Skubal and Blake Snell on the mound. Los Angeles already holds a 2-0 record after two wins in Tokyo, powered by Shohei Ohtani’s early production. The Tigers return several emerging stars from a surprise playoff run last season, hoping Skubal can cool the potent Dodgers bats. Despite LA’s home dominance, head-to-head trends give the Tigers some reason for optimism.

Brewers vs. Yankees
Freddy Peralta and Carlos Rodón headline Milwaukee’s season opener against the Yankees at Yankee Stadium. New York, fresh off a World Series appearance, reshaped its roster with notable additions like Paul Goldschmidt. The Brewers look to defend their NL Central crown, relying on Peralta’s strikeout prowess to silence the Yankees’ bats. Both teams made key offseason moves, setting a marquee pitching matchup to start the season.

Phillies vs. Nationals
Zack Wheeler takes the hill against MacKenzie Gore as Philadelphia visits Washington. Wheeler, a Cy Young contender last season, leads the Phillies’ powerful offense featuring Trea Turner, Kyle Schwarber, and Bryce Harper. The Nationals hope young talents step up for a rebuilding club. Early odds favor Philly’s explosive lineup against a developing Washington roster.

Orioles vs. Blue Jays
Zach Eflin and José Berríos kick off the season in Toronto, where Baltimore aims to build on last year’s 91-win campaign. The Blue Jays endured a tough 74-88 season but retooled their roster, adding power in Anthony Santander and an ace in Max Scherzer. Despite losing key slugger Anthony Santander, the Orioles still boast young stars like Gunnar Henderson. Both teams look to make a statement in a division where momentum is crucial.

Guardians vs. Royals
Tanner Bibee and Cole Ragans meet in Kansas City for an AL Central showdown. Both teams made the playoffs last year, with Cleveland winning the division and the Royals earning a Wild Card. José Ramírez and Bobby Witt Jr. anchor two dynamic offenses, but each club’s pitching could shape the outcome. Early odds tilt slightly to Kansas City at home, though Cleveland’s rotation depth remains a threat.

Braves vs. Padres
Chris Sale, fresh off an NL Cy Young campaign, leads Atlanta against Michael King and the Padres in San Diego. The Braves want to avenge last year’s playoff loss to the Padres, who fell to the Dodgers in the NLDS. Sale’s dominance and King’s consistency tee up a high-level pitching duel. Historically, San Diego has the edge in their matchups, setting up a compelling series opener.

Pirates vs. Marlins
Paul Skenes clashes with Sandy Alcantara in Miami, showcasing two electric arms on Opening Day. Skenes excelled in 2024, while Alcantara returns from Tommy John after his 2022 Cy Young season. Both teams struggled last year but hope their young talent propels them forward. Though Pittsburgh is favored, Miami’s home-field advantage and Alcantara’s proven track record could tip the scales.

Giants vs. Reds
Logan Webb faces Hunter Greene at Great American Ball Park in a duel of strikeout-heavy pitchers. The Giants seek better results after an 80-82 finish, bolstered by newcomers like Willy Adames. Cincinnati, led by new manager Terry Francona, aims to improve on 77-85 with a youth-centric roster headlined by Elly De La Cruz. While the Giants have recent success in this matchup, Greene’s overpowering arsenal gives the Reds hope.

Red Sox vs. Rangers
Garrett Crochet and Nathan Eovaldi square off in Arlington as the Red Sox face the reigning World Series champion Rangers. Boston missed the playoffs last season but upgraded its bullpen and retained a balanced lineup. Texas still relies on veterans Marcus Semien and Corey Seager, though offensive concerns remain. Early lines lean toward the Red Sox, yet Eovaldi aims to pitch the Rangers to a strong title defense opener.

Angels vs. White Sox
Yusei Kikuchi toes the rubber for the Angels against rookie Sean Burke of the White Sox at Rate Field. Los Angeles seeks to end its lengthy playoff drought, boosted by Mike Trout’s return and offseason additions. Chicago comes off a historically bad season with 121 losses, giving Burke a chance to secure a rotation role. Although the Angels are favored, the White Sox did sweep them at home late last year.

Mets vs. Astros
Clay Holmes makes his Mets debut against Framber Valdez in Houston. New York’s offense looks formidable with Juan Soto joining Francisco Lindor and Pete Alonso, though Holmes transitions from a bullpen role into a starter’s job. The Astros lost key contributors like Kyle Tucker but retain Yordan Alvarez and a winning pedigree. Valdez’s elite ground-ball rate and Houston’s well-rounded attack provide a stern Opening Day test for the revamped Mets.