Monte Carmelo is now PNN Sports
Hope everyone enjoyed the All-Star break. We've been quiet for good reason: Monte Carmelo is officially rebranding as PNN Sports — short for Prediction News Network Sports.
This newsletter is now part of Prediction News Network, a new brand connecting the news to prediction markets. Every headline has a price now — sports, politics, culture, weather — all tradable on Kalshi, and PNN covers it all at PredictionNewsNetwork.com and on @watchPNN on X and YouTube, where video is a big focus. This newsletter is the sports arm: daily picks, write-ups, and the best way to trade every game — get in, take profit, get out, no white-knuckling a ninth-inning collapse.
A sincere thank-you to our partners at Inside Edge, whose data powered much of our newsletter. Going forward, our picks will be entirely in-house — our own AI systems and proprietary approach.
We're starting with baseball as the second half resumes tonight, and there's exactly one game on the slate: Mets–Phillies. Let's get into it.
Today's Picks
Over 9.5 Runs
Nola is in bad form at a hitter-friendly park: He enters at 3-6 with a 5.75 ERA, has allowed 12 earned runs over his last three starts (6.61 ERA) — including a seven-earned-run blowup vs. Pittsburgh with two homers in 4.1 innings.
Both bullpens are exposed: Scott hasn't gone past 5 innings or ~90 pitches in any recent start, forcing the Mets to lean on Devin Williams (4.83 ERA), Senga (8.69 in relief), Pérez (5.75), and Myers (6.26); Philly counters with Alvarado (6.82 ERA) plus Mayza and Lazar, who just gave up eight runs in two innings combined on July 10.
Christian Scott Over 5.5 Strikeouts
Elite strikeout rate, trending up: Scott has 65 K in 54 IP this season (~10.8 K/9) and 18 K in 13.1 IP over his last three starts (12+ K/9), clearing this line in two of the three — 7 K vs. Atlanta and 6 K vs. Philadelphia — while the miss (exactly 5) came in just five innings.
He's already done it to this exact lineup: On June 27 he struck out six Phillies in only 4.1 innings, proving he doesn't need length to clear the number against this team.
Game to Watch
Mets @ Phillies · 7:10 pm ET
The second half opens where the All-Star festivities just wrapped: Philadelphia. Aaron Nola takes the ball for the Phillies against Christian Scott and the Mets in a divisional matchup.
Check out PredictionNewsNetwork.com for the full slate of PNN content — politics, culture, weather, and everything else with a price on it. Follow @watchPNN on X and subscribe on YouTube. It pays to read our news. ⚡