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🔥 Top Picks
Tigers/Yankees Over 8.5 (-102) – 7:05 PM ET
Both teams crush lefties—New York leads MLB in slugging vs. LHP (.455) and Detroit ranks second at .453. Will Warren has allowed five total runs in each of his last five outings, and the public is all over the Over.
Cubs ML (-112) @ Braves – 7:15 PM ET
Cade Horton has posted a 1.23 ERA over his last 11 starts and held Atlanta hitless through five innings last time out. Strider, meanwhile, owns a 9.13 ERA across his last five starts.
Padres ML (-195) vs Reds – 9:40 PM ET
Michael King has a 1.95 ERA at Petco Park, and San Diego’s bullpen leads MLB in slugging allowed (.330). The Padres have won three straight and sit one game behind the Dodgers in the NL West.
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⚾ Game Previews
Pittsburgh Pirates (64-80) @ Baltimore Orioles (66-77) – 6:35 PM ET
🔥 Top Pick: Under 8.0 (-111)
🔹 Mike Burrows (PIT): 2-4, 4.08 ERA — Likely limited to ~60 pitches
🔹 Kyle Bradish (BAL): 0-1, 3.60 ERA — 39% K rate, 2.37 xERA
📉 Baltimore has won five of six, and Pirates hitters are slugging just .354 vs RHP, the lowest in MLB. Bradish’s elite swing-and-miss stuff gives this a strong Under profile.
💰 Odds: Orioles -158, Pirates +129 | Total: 8.0
Kansas City Royals (73-71) @ Cleveland Guardians (73-70) – 6:40 PM ET
✅ Best Bet: Under 7.5 (-112)
🔹 Noah Cameron (KC): 7-6, 3.03 ERA — 2.94 ERA in 9 road starts
🔹 Joey Cantillo (CLE): 4-3, 3.73 ERA — 1.62 ERA in last 3 starts
📉 Both starters are in excellent form and KC ranks second in MLB in strikeout avoidance (18%). Progressive Field should help keep the scoring down in this Wild Card chase.
💰 Odds: Guardians -121, Royals -101 | Total: 7.5
Washington Nationals (59-84) @ Miami Marlins (66-78) – 6:40 PM ET
✅ Best Bet: Over 9.0 (-109)
🔹 Mitchell Parker (WSH): 7-15, 5.87 ERA — 0-5, 9.28 ERA in last 7
🔹 Adam Mazur (MIA): 0-2, 5.74 ERA — 6.55 ERA vs WSH in 2 starts
📈 Parker and Mazur have both struggled, and Miami’s pitching staff has allowed a .312 average with RISP, highest in the majors. Monday’s 15-run outburst adds confidence to the Over.
💰 Odds: Marlins -123, Nationals +101 | Total: 9.0
New York Mets (76-68) @ Philadelphia Phillies (84-60) – 6:45 PM ET
✅ Best Bet: Under 8.0 (-111)
🔹 Sean Manaea (NYM): 1-2, 5.60 ERA — hasn’t completed 6 IP since July
🔹 Ranger Suárez (PHI): 11-6, 2.89 ERA — 0.50 ERA in last 3 starts
📉 The Mets have scored just five runs in their last three games, while Philly has gone Under in 8 of their last 10. Suárez gives the Phillies a strong edge in a game both teams need.
💰 Odds: Phillies -132, Mets +108 | Total: 8.0
Detroit Tigers (82-62) @ New York Yankees (80-63) – 7:05 PM ET
🔥 Top Pick: Over 8.5 (-102)
🔹 Casey Mize (DET): 13-5, 3.87 ERA — Tied for 5th-most wins in MLB
🔹 Will Warren (NYY): 8-6, 4.28 ERA — 5 total runs allowed in 5 straight
📈 The Yankees and Tigers rank 1st and 2nd in MLB in slugging vs LHP, and 90% of bets are on the Over. Detroit took 2 of 3 from NY earlier this season.
💰 Odds: Yankees -163, Tigers +133 | Total: 8.5
Houston Astros (78-66) @ Toronto Blue Jays (82-61) – 7:07 PM ET
✅ Best Bet: Under 8.5 (-119)
🔹 Luis Garcia (HOU): 1-0, 4.50 ERA — 6 IP, 6 K in first start post-surgery
🔹 Shane Bieber (TOR): 2-1, 4.15 ERA — 21 SO in limited innings
📉 These clubs have hit the Under in 7 of their last 10 meetings, and Houston held Toronto to just two total runs in a 3-game sweep earlier this year.
💰 Odds: Blue Jays -157, Astros +129 | Total: 8.5
Chicago Cubs (81-63) @ Atlanta Braves (65-79) – 7:15 PM ET
🔥 Top Pick: Cubs ML (-112)
🔹 Cade Horton (CHC): 9-4, 2.78 ERA — 1.23 ERA over last 11 starts
🔹 Spencer Strider (ATL): 5-12, 4.97 ERA — 9.13 ERA in last 5 starts
📉 Horton held ATL hitless through five innings in their last meeting, while Strider continues to struggle post-UCL surgery. Chicago is 78% winners when scoring first (best in MLB).
💰 Odds: Cubs -112, Braves -108 | Total: 8.5
Tampa Bay Rays (71-72) @ Chicago White Sox (55-89) – 7:40 PM ET
✅ Best Bet: Under 8.5 (-119)
🔹 Rays SP: TBD
🔹 Yoendrys Gómez (CHW): 3-2, 4.79 ERA — 3.42 ERA in 5 starts since recall
📉 The Rays’ bullpen has allowed a .199 OBP and .403 OPS with two strikes (best in MLB), and Chicago has struggled against quality relief despite a recent 7-1 stretch.
💰 Odds: Rays -143, White Sox +118 | Total: 8.5
Milwaukee Brewers (89-56) @ Texas Rangers (75-70) – 8:05 PM ET
✅ Best Bet: Over 8.5 (-102)
🔹 Chad Patrick (MIL): 3-8, 3.60 ERA — Brewers lost last 8 of his starts
🔹 Jack Leiter (TEX): 9-8, 3.74 ERA — 2.89 ERA in last 12 starts
📈 Milwaukee leads MLB in road OBP (.343) and walks, while Leiter walks 4.4 per 9 innings. Patrick’s poor team results give this game Over appeal in a playoff-implicated battle.
💰 Odds: Brewers -110, Rangers -111 | Total: 8.5
Minnesota Twins (64-80) @ Los Angeles Angels (67-77) – 9:38 PM ET
✅ Best Bet: Over 9.0 (-116)
🔹 Zebby Matthews (MIN): 4-4, 4.73 ERA — 6 IP, 1 ER in last start
🔹 Kyle Hendricks (LAA): 6-9, 4.81 ERA — 5.05 ERA over last 7 starts
📈 The Angels strike out in 27% of PAs (worst in MLB), and have a team walk rate of 10%, second-highest in MLB. Twins have outscored LAA 33-7 in the season series.
💰 Odds: Twins -121, Angels -101 | Total: 9.0
Cincinnati Reds (72-72) @ San Diego Padres (79-65) – 9:40 PM ET
🔥 Top Pick: Padres ML (-195)
🔹 Zack Littell (CIN): 9-8, 3.81 ERA — 5 ER in last start
🔹 Michael King (SD): 4-2, 2.81 ERA — 1.95 ERA at Petco
📈 San Diego’s bullpen leads MLB in lowest slugging allowed (.330), and the team is surging with three straight wins. King returns to the rotation in a favorable spot.
💰 Odds: Padres -195, Reds +158 | Total: 7.5
St. Louis Cardinals (72-73) @ Seattle Mariners (76-68) – 9:40 PM ET
✅ Best Bet: Under 7.5 (-102)
🔹 Matthew Liberatore (STL): 7-11, 4.15 ERA — 109 K in 136.2 IP
🔹 George Kirby (SEA): 8-7, 4.47 ERA — allowed 8 ER in last outing
📉 STL is hitting just .219 with two outs this season (2nd-worst in MLB), and Seattle ranks second in MLB in first-pitch average (.373). Pitcher-friendly park supports the Under.
💰 Odds: Mariners -217, Cardinals +175 | Total: 7.5
Arizona Diamondbacks (72-73) @ San Francisco Giants (73-71) – 9:45 PM ET
✅ Best Bet: Under 7.5 (-115)
🔹 Zac Gallen (ARI): 11-13, 4.77 ERA — 0 ER in last 2 starts (12 IP)
🔹 Robbie Ray (SF): 10-6, 3.31 ERA — 2-0 vs ARI this year, 171 K total
📉 Oracle Park ranks 23rd in run factor, and Arizona’s bullpen has posted a 5.50 ERA in close/late spots (worst in MLB). Monday’s slugfest isn’t likely to repeat.
💰 Odds: Giants -145, Diamondbacks +119 | Total: 7.5
Boston Red Sox (80-65) @ Oakland Athletics (66-79) – 10:05 PM ET
✅ Best Bet: Over 10.5 (-105)
🔹 Dustin May (BOS): 7-11, 4.96 ERA — 5.40 ERA with BOS
🔹 Jeffrey Springs (OAK): 10-10, 4.13 ERA — 0-3 in last 6 starts
📈 Sutter Health Park has played offensively, and May has struggled since the trade. Boston is 22-1 when Trevor Story homers, including Monday's win in Sacramento.
💰 Odds: Red Sox -113, Athletics -107 | Total: 10.5
Colorado Rockies (40-104) @ Los Angeles Dodgers (80-64) – 10:10 PM ET
✅ Best Bet: Over 9.0 (-106)
🔹 Germán Márquez (COL): 3-12, 6.19 ERA — COL SPs have .315 BAA
🔹 Emmet Sheehan (LAD): 5-3, 3.59 ERA — 60 K in 67.2 IP
📈 Colorado owns MLB’s worst ERA (6.03) and lowest strikeout rate (17%), while the Dodgers’ offense ranks 3rd in OPS. Over has appeal despite LA’s recent scoring dip.
💰 Odds: Dodgers -337, Rockies +262 | Total: 9.0
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