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🔥 Top Picks
Mets/Phillies Over 9.0 (+100) – 6:45 PM ET
Aaron Nola’s 6.78 ERA and .304 opponent average at home set the stage for fireworks against a Mets lineup slugging .445 vs righties. With McLean sharp and Soto scorching hot, this one still profiles as a run-fest.
Brewers ML (-122) @ Rangers – 8:05 PM ET
Milwaukee’s elite .344 OBP on the road (best in MLB) meets Jacob Latz, who’s posted a 40.50 ERA in two outings against the Brewers. With Quintana sporting a 2.57 ERA away from home, this Wild Card battle leans Milwaukee.
Nationals/Marlins Under 8.0 (-105) – 6:40 PM ET
Four of the last five meetings between these teams have stayed under the total, and neither offense is consistent. Cavalli’s HR struggles and Washington’s MLB-worst bullpen ERA point toward a lower-scoring night.
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⚾ Game Previews
Kansas City Royals (73-70) @ Cleveland Guardians (72-70) – 6:40 PM ET
✅ Best Bet: Under 8.0 (-119)
🔹 Ryan Bergert (KC): 2-1, 2.61 ERA, 65 SO — 2 ER or fewer in every start
🔹 Slade Cecconi (CLE): 5-6, 4.78 ERA — 7 ER allowed in last outing
🔍 Kansas City and Cleveland are separated by just one game in the standings, but both rank near the bottom in scoring—KC 28th, CLE 27th. Bergert has been stellar since joining the Royals, while Cecconi enters cold after a 6.31 August ERA and a rough start vs Boston.
💰 Odds: Guardians -111, Royals -109 | Total: 8.0
Washington Nationals (58-84) @ Miami Marlins (66-77) – 6:40 PM ET
🔥 Top Pick: Under 8.0 (-105)
🔹 Cade Cavalli (WSH): 2-1, 4.85 ERA — 6 HR allowed in 29.2 IP
🔹 Janson Junk (MIA): 6-2, 4.09 ERA — first start since August 23
🔍 The Marlins have dropped four of their last five and the Nats’ bullpen owns a 5.25 ERA, worst in MLB. But recent matchups have trended low-scoring: four of the last five have gone under, and the previous series totaled just 39 runs in three games.
💰 Odds: Marlins -132, Nationals +109 | Total: 8.0
New York Mets (76-67) @ Philadelphia Phillies (83-60) – 6:45 PM ET
🔥 Top Pick: Over 9.0 (+100)
🔹 Nolan McLean (NYM): 4-0, 1.37 ERA — shut out PHI over 8 IP earlier
🔹 Aaron Nola (PHI): 3-8, 6.78 ERA — 18 ER in last 19.1 IP
🔍 New York has won 7 of 9 against Philly and just completed a sweep in which they outscored the Phillies by 17 runs. Nola’s been shaky at home (6.55 ERA), and Mets hitters lead MLB with a 47% hard-hit rate while slugging .445 vs righties.
💰 Odds: Mets -126, Phillies +104 | Total: 9.0
Chicago Cubs (81-62) @ Atlanta Braves (64-79) – 7:15 PM ET
✅ Best Bet: Cubs ML (-121)
🔹 Shota Imanaga (CHC): 9-6, 3.15 ERA — 2.45 ERA vs ATL
🔹 Bryce Elder (ATL): 6-9, 5.54 ERA — 6.98 ERA at home
🔍 The Cubs are 42-19 following a loss this year, best mark in MLB, and they send out Imanaga, who already beat Atlanta once. Elder has struggled mightily at home, giving Chicago a strong edge in this series opener.
💰 Odds: Cubs -121, Braves -101 | Total: 8.5
Milwaukee Brewers (89-55) @ Texas Rangers (74-70) – 8:05 PM ET
🔥 Top Pick: Brewers ML (-122)
🔹 Jose Quintana (MIL): 11-5, 3.72 ERA — 2.57 ERA in 11 road starts
🔹 Jacob Latz (TEX): 1-0, 3.15 ERA — 40.50 ERA vs MIL in 2 outings
🔍 The Brewers lead MLB in road OBP (.344), while the Rangers will be without Adolis Garcia and turn to Latz, who’s been hammered by Milwaukee in two prior relief stints. Quintana has quietly dominated on the road.
💰 Odds: Brewers -122, Rangers +101 | Total: 8.5
Minnesota Twins (63-80) @ Los Angeles Angels (67-76) – 9:38 PM ET
✅ Best Bet: Over 9.5 (-110)
🔹 Simeon Woods Richardson (MIN): 5-4, 4.53 ERA — 5.95 ERA on road
🔹 Caden Dana (LAA): 0-0, 4.91 ERA — 6 ER in 11 IP
🔍 The Angels allowed 27 runs in two games vs Oakland before salvaging the finale, and Minnesota has allowed 11+ runs in three of their last six. Add in bullpen trouble from both sides and the Over has room to cash.
💰 Odds: Angels -123, Twins +101 | Total: 9.5
Cincinnati Reds (72-71) @ San Diego Padres (78-65) – 9:40 PM ET
✅ Best Bet: Under 7.5 (-110)
🔹 Nick Lodolo (CIN): 8-7, 3.22 ERA — .193 BAA, 2.52 ERA on road
🔹 Yu Darvish (SD): 3-5, 5.75 ERA — gone 4 IP or fewer in 3 of last 4
🔍 Despite some shaky outings from Darvish, the Padres' bullpen has locked things down with a .214 BAA and .331 SLG, both best in MLB. Lodolo’s road dominance plus Petco’s spacious layout push this toward the Under.
💰 Odds: Padres -144, Reds +118 | Total: 7.5
St. Louis Cardinals (72-72) @ Seattle Mariners (75-68) – 9:40 PM ET
✅ Best Bet: Under 7.5 (-113)
🔹 Miles Mikolas (STL): 7-10, 4.89 ERA — 4+ ER in 4 of last 7 starts
🔹 Bryan Woo (SEA): 12-7, 3.02 ERA — 169 SO, 0.97 WHIP
🔍 Seattle’s offense just exploded for 18 runs, but Woo’s command and T-Mobile Park’s 0.843 run factor make scoring tough. Cal Raleigh (53 HR) adds intrigue, but the setting favors the Under.
💰 Odds: Mariners -232, Cardinals +187 | Total: 7.5
Arizona Diamondbacks (72-72) @ San Francisco Giants (72-71) – 9:45 PM ET
✅ Best Bet: Over 7.5 (-115)
🔹 Nabil Crismatt (ARI): 2-0, 2.14 ERA — 2 ER allowed in last start
🔹 Logan Webb (SF): 13-9, 3.17 ERA — 2.46 ERA in 13 career starts vs ARI
🔍 Five of the seven matchups between these teams this season have cleared 7 runs, and San Francisco’s last six wins have all gone over double digits. This rivalry has been sneaky high-scoring despite solid pitching.
💰 Odds: Giants -188, Diamondbacks +153 | Total: 7.5
Boston Red Sox (79-65) @ Sacramento Athletics (66-78) – 10:05 PM ET
✅ Best Bet: Under 9.0 (-111)
🔹 Garrett Crochet (BOS): 14-5, 2.67 ERA — 218 SO in 178.1 IP
🔹 Luis Morales (OAK): 3-0, 1.59 ERA — 17 hits allowed in 28.1 IP
🔍 Morales has impressed since debuting August 1, while Boston’s bullpen (.647 OPS allowed) ranks second in MLB. Add Crochet’s swing-and-miss stuff and this leans low-scoring.
💰 Odds: Red Sox -176, Athletics +144 | Total: 9.0
Colorado Rockies (40-103) @ Los Angeles Dodgers (79-64) – 10:10 PM ET
✅ Best Bet: Over 9.0 (-121)
🔹 Chase Dollander (COL): 2-12, 6.77 ERA — .316 BAA on road
🔹 Tyler Glasnow (LAD): 1-3, 3.41 ERA — 2.89 ERA at home
🔍 The Dodgers are 8-2 vs Colorado and average 5.58 runs/game at home, while Rockies hitters have the lowest OBP (.266) and OPS (.604) in MLB on the road. Glasnow is solid, but LA’s .811 home OPS points toward the Over against Dollander.
💰 Odds: Dodgers -343, Rockies +266 | Total: 9.0
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