We deliver concise MLB previews with key takeaways for every matchup, so you’re informed without the hassle. Our AI-driven analysis simulates sports traders’ betting strategies to identify the best bets.
We’re most active on Twitter. Reply to this email with your thoughts, bets, or anything else — we respond to every reply.
🔥 Top Picks
Tigers/White Sox Over 9.0 (+100) – 1:40 PM ET
Charlie Morton has a 5.51 ERA and is coming off a six-run outing. With Chicago’s weak .368 SLG vs righties (2nd-worst in MLB) and Detroit ranking 8th in runs, there’s value on a crooked scoreboard.
Padres -1.5 (-115) @ Rockies – 3:10 PM ET
Dylan Cease draws a Rockies team with the league’s worst strikeout rate (17%) and worst ERA (6.03). San Diego just erupted for 10 runs on 16 hits and should steamroll behind their ace.
Under 8.5 (-118) Guardians @ Rays – 12:10 PM ET
Cleveland bats .185 vs righties (lowest in MLB), and Tampa Bay’s bullpen owns a 26% strikeout rate. With Rasmussen posting a 2.74 ERA and Messick returning to Florida, this lines up as a low-scoring battle.
Sponsored
Built for Managers, Not Engineers
AI isn’t just for developers. The AI Report gives business leaders daily, practical insights you can apply to ops, sales, marketing, and strategy.
No tech jargon. No wasted time. Just actionable tools to help you lead smarter.
Start where it counts.
🎯 Boost Your Edge with Novig
Looking for better odds and a smarter way to play? Check out Novig — the #1 Sports Prediction Market in the U.S.
🧠 On Novig, you trade, not bet. That means:
You play against other users, not the house
You can set your own odds or take the best available
You can play with Coins for fun, or trade Cash for the chance to win real rewards
💸 Use code MONTE on your first purchase to get a 50% match up to $25.
✅ Available in 42 states | Must be 21+ | No purchase necessary
Join the future of sports trading → Join Novig
⚾ Game Previews
Seattle Mariners (74-68) @ Atlanta Braves (64-78) – 12:05 PM ET
🔹 Luis Castillo (SEA): 8-8, 3.94 ERA, 138 SO — past the 5th inning once in last 6 starts
🔹 Joey Wentz (ATL): 5-5, 5.12 ERA, 75 SO
✅ Best Bet: Over 10.0 (-115)
Seattle drilled five homers in Saturday’s 10-2 rout and leads MLB in slugging on first pitches (.708). Castillo has struggled for depth, and Wentz faces a Mariners lineup with 205 home runs. Expect runs early.
Cleveland Guardians (71-70) @ Tampa Bay Rays (71-71) – 12:10 PM ET
🔹 Parker Messick (CLE): 1-0, 2.08 ERA, 14 SO — allowed 9 hits in 3.2 IP vs BOS last time
🔹 Drew Rasmussen (TB): 10-5, 2.74 ERA, 115 SO — 4-game unbeaten streak
🔥 Top Pick: Under 8.5 (-118)
Cleveland has MLB's lowest team AVG (.224) and worst mark vs righties (.185). Tampa Bay’s bullpen ranks among the best in K-rate and limits damage with two strikes. Good pitching should rule here.
Los Angeles Dodgers (78-64) @ Baltimore Orioles (66-76) – 1:35 PM ET
🔹 Clayton Kershaw (LAD): 9-2, 3.28 ERA, 61 SO — 5-0 in August, 4 ER in last start
🔹 Tomoyuki Sugano (BAL): 10-7, 4.41 ERA, 95 SO — 11 ER in last 9.1 IP
✅ Best Bet: Under 8.5 (-105)
The Dodgers’ starters hold opponents to a .462 OPS with two strikes (best in MLB). Despite Baltimore's five-game win streak, Kershaw’s command and the Dodgers' pitching metrics favor a tight game.
Toronto Blue Jays (82-60) @ New York Yankees (79-63) – 1:35 PM ET
🔹 Max Scherzer (TOR): 5-2, 4.11 ERA, 62 SO — 3.43 ERA last 7 starts
🔹 Max Fried (NYY): 15-5, 2.98 ERA, 159 SO — 0.90 ERA over last 3 starts
✅ Best Bet: Under 8.0 (-105)
Both starters are in strong form heading into this AL East rubber match. Toronto leads MLB in AVG (.269) and is hardest to strike out (18%), but the Yankees limited them to 5 runs over their last 2. A crisp duel looms.
Milwaukee Brewers (88-55) @ Pittsburgh Pirates (64-79) – 1:35 PM ET
🔹 Jacob Misiorowski (MIL): 4-2, 4.50 ERA, 69 SO — 8.59 ERA in last 4 starts
🔹 Bubba Chandler (PIT): 2-0, 2.25 ERA, 9 SO — first career MLB start
✅ Best Bet: Over 8.0 (-102)
Misiorowski has been knocked around lately, and Chandler transitions from relief to starting duties. With Milwaukee’s bullpen stretched thin by injuries, both sides could pile on some early runs.
New York Mets (76-66) @ Cincinnati Reds (71-71) – 1:40 PM ET
🔹 Brandon Sproat (NYM): MLB debut — 3.41 ERA over last 14 Triple-A outings
🔹 Hunter Greene (CIN): 5-4, 2.70 ERA, 101 SO — back from 2-month injury
✅ Best Bet: Under 8.5 (-104)
Sproat brings swing-and-miss potential, and Greene's recent 1-run outing vs an AL leader shows he's healthy. Both offenses are streaky, and this total is high for what profiles as a pitching matchup.
Chicago White Sox (54-89) @ Detroit Tigers (82-61) – 1:40 PM ET
🔹 Davis Martin (CWS): 6-9, 4.06 ERA, 89 SO — 8 quality starts in 21 outings
🔹 Charlie Morton (DET): 9-10, 5.51 ERA, 140 SO — 6 ER in 3.2 IP in last start
🔥 Top Pick: Over 9.0 (+100)
Morton’s ERA sits at 5.51, and Detroit ranks 8th in runs scored. The White Sox are swinging it better lately, with Colson Montgomery homering five times in his last 10 games. Plenty of slug potential.
Philadelphia Phillies (83-59) @ Miami Marlins (65-77) – 1:40 PM ET
🔹 Taijuan Walker (PHI): 4-7, 3.92 ERA, 75 SO — 6-3 career vs MIA
🔹 Tyler Phillips (MIA): 2-1, 3.15 ERA, 43 SO — steady over 3 starts
✅ Best Bet: Over 9.0 (-115)
The Phillies have racked up 13 runs in the first two games of this series. With Miami losing five straight and Walker allowing 5 ER in his last start, expect more crooked numbers.
Minnesota Twins (62-80) @ Kansas City Royals (73-69) – 2:10 PM ET
🔹 Bailey Ober (MIN): 4-7, 5.23 ERA, 99 SO
🔹 Michael Lorenzen (KC): 5-9, 4.54 ERA, 105 SO — KC won last 3 at home
✅ Best Bet: Under 8.5 (+100)
Minnesota's offense ranks 29th in late-inning scoring (1.14 runs per game) and the team is on a 6-game losing streak. Kansas City has outscored opponents by 13 in their last 10 games and could control tempo again.
San Francisco Giants (72-70) @ St. Louis Cardinals (71-72) – 2:15 PM ET
🔹 Kai-Wei Teng (SF): 2-3, 7.23 ERA, 20 SO — 9 H in 5.1 IP vs COL
🔹 Sonny Gray (STL): 12-8, 4.43 ERA, 173 SO — 7 ER in last start
✅ Best Bet: Over 8.0 (-103)
Teng’s 7.23 ERA and Gray’s recent blow-up suggest plenty of run potential. The Giants had scored 46 runs over five games before Saturday’s cold night. Offense should return.
Washington Nationals (57-84) @ Chicago Cubs (81-61) – 2:20 PM ET
🔹 Andrew Alvarez (WSH): 1-0, 0.00 ERA — 5 scoreless in MLB debut
🔹 Drew Pomeranz (CHC): 2-1, 2.40 ERA — working as reliever
✅ Best Bet: Over 7.5 (-105)
Cubs likely go bullpen-heavy with Pomeranz opening, while Washington’s bullpen owns MLB’s worst ERA (5.27). Despite strong Wrigley winds, both staffs offer chances for runs.
Houston Astros (78-65) @ Texas Rangers (73-70) – 2:35 PM ET
🔹 Framber Valdez (HOU): 12-8, 3.40 ERA, 166 SO — 6.14 ERA last 5 starts
🔹 Patrick Corbin (TEX): 7-9, 4.48 ERA, 114 SO — 4+ ER in 3 of last 4
✅ Best Bet: Over 8.5 (-108)
Both starters come in struggling, and Houston just blasted Texas 11-0. Each of Houston’s last four road favorite games and four of Texas’ last five day games vs AL West foes have gone over.
San Diego Padres (77-65) @ Colorado Rockies (40-102) – 3:10 PM ET
🔹 Dylan Cease (SD): 6-11, 4.81 ERA, 190 SO
🔹 Tanner Gordon (COL): 5-5, 6.07 ERA, 41 SO
🔥 Top Pick: Padres -1.5 (-115)
Colorado has MLB’s worst K-rate (17%) and highest ERA (6.03), while San Diego dropped 10 runs on 16 hits Saturday. This is a mismatch by every metric — Padres should cruise.
Oakland Athletics (66-77) @ Los Angeles Angels (66-76) – 4:07 PM ET
🔹 Luis Severino (OAK): 6-11, 4.65 ERA — 2.17 ERA over last 5 vs LAA
🔹 Mitch Farris (LAA): 1-0, 1.80 ERA — first start
✅ Best Bet: Over 9.5 (-105)
Oakland exploded for 17 runs on 20 hits Saturday and has covered the run line in 8 straight vs AL teams with losing records. With Farris debuting and LAA’s swing-and-miss tendencies (30th in K), expect more fireworks.
Boston Red Sox (78-65) @ Arizona Diamondbacks (72-71) – 4:10 PM ET
🔹 Brayan Bello (BOS): 11-6, 3.07 ERA, 112 SO — 2.85 ERA on the road
🔹 Ryne Nelson (ARI): 7-3, 3.57 ERA, 115 SO — 18 ER over last 35.1 IP
✅ Best Bet: Under 9.0 (-112)
Boston has scored just seven total runs over their last three games, and Arizona hasn’t scored more than five in five of their last six. With Bello’s road numbers, this profiles as a low total game.
👀 New to Monte Carmelo?
Preview every MLB game today with our short-form write-ups. Each newsletter has:
🔮 Best Bets at the top.
📊 Game Previews below.
👀 Plus, we’re building tools to let you experiment on your own - more coming soon…
Are you a sportsbook operator? Reply to this email to discuss integrating our live game write-ups into your platform or explore our B2B site: montecarmelo.info
Interested in making your own newsletter? Use the link below to receive a 30-day trial + 20% OFF for 3 months on Beehiiv! Reply to this email, and we’ll even help you get started with AI tips and tricks to jumpstart your journey