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🔥 Top Picks
Tigers/White Sox Under 7.5 (-123) – 6:10 PM ET
Both starters boast sub-2.20 ERAs, and Chicago ranks last in the AL in slugging vs righties (.368). With Skubal's 216 Ks and Detroit’s 25% SP strikeout rate (second-best in MLB), runs should be scarce.
Dodgers/Orioles Under 7.5 (-104) – 7:05 PM ET
Rogers has allowed one run or fewer in 7 straight starts, and Yamamoto's coming off 10 Ks in his last outing. Both teams are trending Under, combining for 13 straight Unders at their respective venues.
Red Sox ML (-119) @ Diamondbacks – 8:10 PM ET
Giolito’s in strong form (2 straight QS, 1 ER last outing), while Pfaadt brings a 5.33 ERA and just got lit up by the Dodgers. Boston’s bullpen (.648 OPS allowed) is elite and should close this out late.
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⚾ Game Previews
Toronto Blue Jays (82-59) @ New York Yankees (78-63) – 1:05 PM ET
🔥 Top Pick: Over 10.0 (-109)
🔹 Chris Bassitt (TOR): 11-7, 4.10 ERA – 9 HR allowed in last 49 IP
🔹 Luis Gil (NYY): 2-1, 3.68 ERA – 5.12 xERA, .272 BAA
🔍 Toronto has won 7 of its last 8 vs New York and owns MLB’s best batting average (.270). Meanwhile, the Yankees lead MLB in slugging (.457). With both starters allowing damage, expect fireworks.
💰 Odds: Yankees -143, Blue Jays +117 | Total: 10.0
Washington Nationals (56-84) @ Chicago Cubs (81-60) – 2:20 PM ET
✅ Best Bet: Over 9.0 (-109)
🔹 Brad Lord (WSH): 4-8, 4.34 ERA – 14 ER over last 2 starts
🔹 Matthew Boyd (CHC): 12-7, 2.94 ERA – 4.54 ERA in August
🔍 The Cubs are 54-10 when scoring at least five runs and just launched four HRs in Friday’s win. With Lord imploding recently and Boyd struggling in August, expect both offenses to cash.
💰 Odds: Cubs -272, Nationals +216 | Total: 9.0
Philadelphia Phillies (82-59) @ Miami Marlins (65-76) – 4:10 PM ET
✅ Best Bet: Phillies ML (-164)
🔹 Jesús Luzardo (PHI): 12-6, 4.05 ERA – faces former team
🔹 Sandy Alcantara (MIA): 8-11, 5.66 ERA – 6 ER in last PHI start
🔍 Philly is 7-2 vs Miami this season and leads MLB in first-pitch batting average (.382). Alcantara has dropped three straight vs the Phillies, and Miami’s .341 SLG vs lefties is tied for worst in baseball.
💰 Odds: Phillies -164, Marlins +134 | Total: 8.0
Chicago White Sox (54-88) @ Detroit Tigers (81-61) – 6:10 PM ET
🔥 Top Pick: Under 7.5 (-123)
🔹 Martín Pérez (CWS): 1-3, 2.16 ERA – 0.98 WHIP
🔹 Tarik Skubal (DET): 12-4, 2.18 ERA – 216 SO, 0.87 WHIP
🔍 Chicago ranks last in AL slugging vs righties (.368), and Detroit’s starters have the second-highest K-rate in MLB (25%). With both arms in elite form and the Tigers cold offensively (3-7 in last 10), this sets up as a classic Under.
💰 Odds: Tigers -308, White Sox +242 | Total: 7.5
New York Mets (76-65) @ Cincinnati Reds (70-71) – 6:40 PM ET
✅ Best Bet: Over 9.0 (-108)
🔹 Jonah Tong (NYM): 1-0, 1.80 ERA – second MLB start
🔹 Brady Singer (CIN): 12-9, 4.08 ERA – 8 scoreless vs NYM in 2023
🔍 91% of bets are on the Over, and the Reds have blown leads in 9 of their last 13 losses. With a rookie starter and shaky bullpen situations, this one leans high scoring.
💰 Odds: Mets -136, Reds +112 | Total: 9.0
Milwaukee Brewers (87-55) @ Pittsburgh Pirates (64-78) – 6:40 PM ET
✅ Best Bet: Under 8.0 (-119)
🔹 Brandon Woodruff (MIL): 5-2, 3.69 ERA – 7-3, 3.25 ERA career vs PIT
🔹 Mitch Keller (PIT): 6-13, 4.21 ERA – allowed 6 ER vs MIL on 8/13
🔍 Milwaukee leads the National League in OBP (.332) and owns MLB’s second-best ERA (3.62). Pittsburgh’s .660 OPS is worst in baseball. This matchup profiles as a low-scoring division grind.
💰 Odds: Brewers -145, Pirates +118 | Total: 8.0
Los Angeles Dodgers (78-63) @ Baltimore Orioles (65-76) – 7:05 PM ET
🔥 Top Pick: Under 7.5 (-104)
🔹 Yoshinobu Yamamoto (LAD): 11-8, 2.82 ERA – 10 K in last start
🔹 Trevor Rogers (BAL): 8-2, 1.39 ERA – 7 straight starts with ≤1 ER
🔍 The Dodgers and Orioles have combined for 13 straight Unders at home/road, and both starters are locked in. LA has lost 6 of 7 and is missing key bats, so expect a quiet scoreboard.
💰 Odds: Dodgers -150, Orioles +123 | Total: 7.5
Cleveland Guardians (70-70) @ Tampa Bay Rays (71-70) – 7:05 PM ET
✅ Best Bet: Over 8.0 (-115)
🔹 Tanner Bibee (CLE): 9-11, 4.77 ERA – 5.64 road ERA
🔹 Shane Baz (TB): 9-11, 4.98 ERA – 6.47 home ERA
🔍 Bibee and Baz have combined for a 9.75 ERA in recent starts, and Cleveland’s bats woke up Friday. With both arms hittable and offensive upside from Caminero and Ramírez, Over looks right.
💰 Odds: Rays -143, Guardians +118 | Total: 8.0
San Francisco Giants (72-69) @ St. Louis Cardinals (70-72) – 7:15 PM ET
✅ Best Bet: Over 8.5 (-105)
🔹 Justin Verlander (SF): 3-10, 4.29 ERA – 10 K in last start
🔹 Andre Pallante (STL): 6-13, 5.38 ERA – 8.67 ERA in August
🔍 These starters have combined for an 11.01 ERA in their respective home/road splits. Eight of the last nine matchups between these teams have gone Over. Ride the trend.
💰 Odds: Giants -132, Cardinals +108 | Total: 8.5
Houston Astros (77-65) @ Texas Rangers (73-69) – 7:15 PM ET
✅ Best Bet: Over 7.0 (-104)
🔹 Hunter Brown (HOU): 10-7, 2.34 ERA – just 1 win in last 10 starts
🔹 Jacob deGrom (TEX): 11-6, 2.69 ERA – 1.29 ERA vs HOU this year
🔍 Houston’s bats have gone Over in 4 of 5 and Texas in 3 of 5. With late-season fatigue, even elite arms might crack here.
💰 Odds: Rangers -119, Astros -102 | Total: 7.0
Minnesota Twins (62-79) @ Kansas City Royals (72-69) – 7:15 PM ET
✅ Best Bet: Under 8.0 (-111)
🔹 Joe Ryan (MIN): 13-7, 3.08 ERA – 1.34 ERA, 8-0 in 10 career starts vs KC
🔹 Stephen Kolek (KC): 4-5, 3.99 ERA – 7.62 ERA at home
🔍 KC has scored just 14 runs over its last 7 games, and Ryan has owned this matchup. A suppressed scoring environment at Kauffman adds support to the Under.
💰 Odds: Twins -116, Royals -104 | Total: 8.0
Seattle Mariners (73-68) @ Atlanta Braves (64-77) – 7:15 PM ET
✅ Best Bet: Under 9.0 (-106)
🔹 Bryce Miller (SEA): 4-5, 5.71 ERA – 2.70 ERA in 2 career starts vs ATL
🔹 Hurston Waldrep (ATL): 4-0, 1.01 ERA – 1.01 ERA in August
🔍 Waldrep is dominating, and Seattle has lost 13 of its last 16 road games. This one shapes up as a tight, low-scoring tilt.
💰 Odds: Braves -131, Mariners +107 | Total: 9.0
Boston Red Sox (78-64) @ Arizona Diamondbacks (71-71) – 8:10 PM ET
🔥 Top Pick: Red Sox ML (-119)
🔹 Lucas Giolito (BOS): 10-2, 3.38 ERA – 6 IP, 1 ER last outing
🔹 Brandon Pfaadt (ARI): 12-8, 5.33 ERA – 8 H, 4 ER in last start
🔍 Giolito is trending up while Pfaadt has been vulnerable, and Boston’s bullpen ranks second-best in MLB in SLG allowed. Look for a bounce-back win for the Sox.
💰 Odds: Red Sox -119, Diamondbacks -102 | Total: 9.0
San Diego Padres (76-65) @ Colorado Rockies (40-101) – 8:10 PM ET
✅ Best Bet: Over 12.0 (-107)
🔹 Randy Vásquez (SD): 3-6, 3.96 ERA – 4.17 ERA on road
🔹 McCade Brown (COL): 0-2, 8.22 ERA – .323 opponent AVG
🔍 Brown's been crushed, Colorado’s bullpen is thin, and 3 of the last 4 H2Hs have gone Over. Coors Field + weak pitching = classic Over spot.
💰 Odds: Padres -198, Rockies +160 | Total: 12.0
Athletics (65-77) @ Los Angeles Angels (66-75) – 9:38 PM ET
✅ Best Bet: Over 8.5 (-122)
🔹 J.T. Ginn (OAK): 2-6, 5.17 ERA – 2.02 HR/9
🔹 Yusei Kikuchi (LAA): 6-10, 3.83 ERA – 7.01 ERA in last 5 starts
🔍 Ginn and Kikuchi have been vulnerable, and the A’s are averaging 5.6 runs/game over their last 10. Both teams hit righties well—this has fireworks potential.
💰 Odds: Angels -118, Athletics -103 | Total: 8.5
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