Today's MLB Preview + Best Bets (9/4)

We deliver concise MLB previews with key takeaways for every matchup, so you’re informed without the hassle. Our AI-driven analysis simulates sports traders’ betting strategies to identify the best bets.

We’re most active on Twitter. Reply to this email with your thoughts, bets, or anything else — we respond to every reply.

Under 7.0 (-122) – Dodgers @ Pirates – 6:40 PM ET
Skenes owns a 1.65 ERA at home and blanked LA earlier this year, while Snell has allowed just 12 earned runs across his last 6 starts. With the Pirates' offense ranked last in OPS and two frontline arms on the mound, this profiles as a tight, low-scoring game.

Under 8.0 (-119) – Phillies @ Brewers – 4:10 PM ET
Freddy Peralta dominated August with a 0.32 ERA and now faces a Phillies offense that ranks fourth in wRC+ since August 15 but went 1-for-8 with RISP on Wednesday. Ranger Suárez brings strong command, and this series finale shapes up as a low-scoring playoff-style matchup.

Under 8.5 (-116) – Guardians @ Rays – 7:35 PM ET
Cleveland ranks last in MLB in batting average (.224) and second-worst in OPS (.663), while Tampa’s bullpen has been dominant with a .405 OPS allowed with two strikes. With Ryan Pepiot riding a 3.25 ERA in August and Cleveland’s offense sputtering, this matchup favors the Under.

In a world of sensational headlines and shallow takes, The Daily Upside stands apart. Written by former bankers and veteran journalists, it delivers crisp, actionable insights that top execs use to make smarter decisions. Over 1M readers — boardrooms to corner offices — trust it every morning. Join them. Free, no fluff, just business clarity.

Join them. Free, no fluff, just business clarity.

Philadelphia Phillies (80-59, .576) @ Milwaukee Brewers (86-54, .614) – 4:10 PM ET
🔥 Top Pick: Under 8.0 (-119)
🔹 Ranger Suárez (PHI): 10-6, 3.02 ERA, 124 SO — 4.10 ERA in August, multiple blow-up outings
🔹 Freddy Peralta (MIL): 16-5, 2.58 ERA, 168 SO — 0.32 ERA in August, NL Pitcher of the Month
🔍 Milwaukee went 21-9 in August behind red-hot Brice Turang, while Peralta was nearly untouchable. Philly’s offense has surged (133 wRC+ since Aug. 15), but it stranded key runners on Wednesday. With both pitchers trending opposite directions, the Under is well-supported.
💰 Odds: Brewers -131, Phillies +107 | Total: 8.0

Los Angeles Dodgers (78-61, .561) @ Pittsburgh Pirates (63-77, .450) – 6:40 PM ET
🔥 Top Pick: Under 7.0 (-122)
🔹 Blake Snell (LAD): 3-3, 2.41 ERA, 38 SO — allowed 3 ER over 5⅓ IP vs ARI last time out
🔹 Paul Skenes (PIT): 9-9, 2.05 ERA, 187 SO — 1.65 ERA at home, shut out LA earlier this year
🔍 Skenes has been dominant at PNC Park and already blanked the Dodgers once. LA has dropped 4 of 5, while Pittsburgh is surging and chasing a sweep. With MLB’s worst OPS offense and two sharp arms, this game leans solidly Under.
💰 Odds: Dodgers -123, Pirates +101 | Total: 7.0

Cleveland Guardians (69-69, .500) @ Tampa Bay Rays (70-69, .504) – 7:35 PM ET
🔥 Top Pick: Under 8.5 (-116)
🔹 Logan Allen (CLE): 7-10, 4.42 ERA, 105 SO — winless since July 29, allowed 4 ER in last TB start
🔹 Ryan Pepiot (TB): 10-10, 3.70 ERA, 155 SO — 4-1, 3.25 ERA in August
🔍 Tampa enters on a six-game win streak, while Cleveland is just 6-12 over its last 18. Pepiot has a 2.25 ERA in three career outings vs the Guardians, and TB’s bullpen dominates with two strikes. Cleveland’s weak contact profile makes the Under the best angle here.
💰 Odds: Rays -163, Guardians +133 | Total: 8.5

Los Angeles Angels (66-73, .475) @ Kansas City Royals (70-69, .504) – 7:40 PM ET
✅ Best Bet: Under 9.0 (+100)
🔹 Kyle Hendricks (LAA): 6-9, 4.89 ERA, 89 SO — 6 IP, 1 ER in win vs HOU on Saturday
🔹 Noah Cameron (KC): 7-6, 2.92 ERA, 83 SO — 4.03 ERA last 7 starts, over 140 IP between levels
🔍 The Royals have totaled just 4 hits in each of their last three games and are 1-4 on their current homestand. Hendricks owns a 3.33 ERA in 4 career starts vs KC, while Cameron returns from extended rest. With strikeout-averse Royals and high-K Angels, this game points to the Under.
💰 Odds: Royals -156, Angels +128 | Total: 9.0

Chicago White Sox (52-88, .371) @ Minnesota Twins (62-77, .446) – 7:40 PM ET
✅ Best Bet: Over 8.5 (-108)
🔹 Fraser Ellard (CHW): 0-2, 4.82 ERA, 13 SO — opener with just 9⅓ IP on the season
🔹 Taj Bradley (MIN): 6-7, 4.82 ERA, 102 SO — 0-1, 14.85 ERA vs CHW in 2 career starts
🔍 The White Sox have won four straight and pulled off a ninth-inning comeback Wednesday, snapping a 205-game losing streak when trailing after eight. Bradley has been hit hard by Chicago in past outings, allowing 11 runs in 6⅔ innings. With the Over at 11-2 in Chicago’s last 13, runs are likely again.
💰 Odds: Twins -157, White Sox +129 | Total: 8.5

New York Yankees (77-62, .554) @ Houston Astros (77-63, .550) – 7:40 PM ET
✅ Best Bet: Under 9.0 (-120)
🔹 Carlos Rodón (NYY): 15-7, 3.18 ERA, 177 SO — 4-0, 2.51 ERA in 11 starts vs HOU
🔹 Cristian Javier (HOU): 1-1, 3.38 ERA, 16 SO — .180 opponent avg vs NYY lineup
🔍 Rodón has shut down the Astros across 11 career starts, while Javier limits hard contact and just allowed 1 ER over 6 innings in his last outing. The Under has hit in 7 of Houston’s last 10 games and 6 of their last 9 at home. Two evenly matched teams with strong arms and elite bullpens point to a tight finish.
💰 Odds: Yankees -144, Astros +119 | Total: 9.0

Preview every MLB game today with our short-form write-ups. Each newsletter has:

🔮 Best Bets at the top.
📊 Game Previews below.
👀 Plus, we’re building tools to let you experiment on your own - more coming soon…

Are you a sportsbook operator? Reply to this email to discuss integrating our live game write-ups into your platform or explore our B2B site: montecarmelo.info

Interested in making your own newsletter? Use the link below to receive a 30-day trial + 20% OFF for 3 months on Beehiiv! Reply to this email, and we’ll even help you get started with AI tips and tricks to jumpstart your journey