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🔥 Top Picks
Under 7.0 (-122) – Dodgers @ Pirates – 6:40 PM ET
Skenes owns a 1.65 ERA at home and blanked LA earlier this year, while Snell has allowed just 12 earned runs across his last 6 starts. With the Pirates' offense ranked last in OPS and two frontline arms on the mound, this profiles as a tight, low-scoring game.
Under 8.0 (-119) – Phillies @ Brewers – 4:10 PM ET
Freddy Peralta dominated August with a 0.32 ERA and now faces a Phillies offense that ranks fourth in wRC+ since August 15 but went 1-for-8 with RISP on Wednesday. Ranger Suárez brings strong command, and this series finale shapes up as a low-scoring playoff-style matchup.
Under 8.5 (-116) – Guardians @ Rays – 7:35 PM ET
Cleveland ranks last in MLB in batting average (.224) and second-worst in OPS (.663), while Tampa’s bullpen has been dominant with a .405 OPS allowed with two strikes. With Ryan Pepiot riding a 3.25 ERA in August and Cleveland’s offense sputtering, this matchup favors the Under.
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⚾ Game Previews
Philadelphia Phillies (80-59, .576) @ Milwaukee Brewers (86-54, .614) – 4:10 PM ET
🔥 Top Pick: Under 8.0 (-119)
🔹 Ranger Suárez (PHI): 10-6, 3.02 ERA, 124 SO — 4.10 ERA in August, multiple blow-up outings
🔹 Freddy Peralta (MIL): 16-5, 2.58 ERA, 168 SO — 0.32 ERA in August, NL Pitcher of the Month
🔍 Milwaukee went 21-9 in August behind red-hot Brice Turang, while Peralta was nearly untouchable. Philly’s offense has surged (133 wRC+ since Aug. 15), but it stranded key runners on Wednesday. With both pitchers trending opposite directions, the Under is well-supported.
💰 Odds: Brewers -131, Phillies +107 | Total: 8.0
Los Angeles Dodgers (78-61, .561) @ Pittsburgh Pirates (63-77, .450) – 6:40 PM ET
🔥 Top Pick: Under 7.0 (-122)
🔹 Blake Snell (LAD): 3-3, 2.41 ERA, 38 SO — allowed 3 ER over 5⅓ IP vs ARI last time out
🔹 Paul Skenes (PIT): 9-9, 2.05 ERA, 187 SO — 1.65 ERA at home, shut out LA earlier this year
🔍 Skenes has been dominant at PNC Park and already blanked the Dodgers once. LA has dropped 4 of 5, while Pittsburgh is surging and chasing a sweep. With MLB’s worst OPS offense and two sharp arms, this game leans solidly Under.
💰 Odds: Dodgers -123, Pirates +101 | Total: 7.0
Cleveland Guardians (69-69, .500) @ Tampa Bay Rays (70-69, .504) – 7:35 PM ET
🔥 Top Pick: Under 8.5 (-116)
🔹 Logan Allen (CLE): 7-10, 4.42 ERA, 105 SO — winless since July 29, allowed 4 ER in last TB start
🔹 Ryan Pepiot (TB): 10-10, 3.70 ERA, 155 SO — 4-1, 3.25 ERA in August
🔍 Tampa enters on a six-game win streak, while Cleveland is just 6-12 over its last 18. Pepiot has a 2.25 ERA in three career outings vs the Guardians, and TB’s bullpen dominates with two strikes. Cleveland’s weak contact profile makes the Under the best angle here.
💰 Odds: Rays -163, Guardians +133 | Total: 8.5
Los Angeles Angels (66-73, .475) @ Kansas City Royals (70-69, .504) – 7:40 PM ET
✅ Best Bet: Under 9.0 (+100)
🔹 Kyle Hendricks (LAA): 6-9, 4.89 ERA, 89 SO — 6 IP, 1 ER in win vs HOU on Saturday
🔹 Noah Cameron (KC): 7-6, 2.92 ERA, 83 SO — 4.03 ERA last 7 starts, over 140 IP between levels
🔍 The Royals have totaled just 4 hits in each of their last three games and are 1-4 on their current homestand. Hendricks owns a 3.33 ERA in 4 career starts vs KC, while Cameron returns from extended rest. With strikeout-averse Royals and high-K Angels, this game points to the Under.
💰 Odds: Royals -156, Angels +128 | Total: 9.0
Chicago White Sox (52-88, .371) @ Minnesota Twins (62-77, .446) – 7:40 PM ET
✅ Best Bet: Over 8.5 (-108)
🔹 Fraser Ellard (CHW): 0-2, 4.82 ERA, 13 SO — opener with just 9⅓ IP on the season
🔹 Taj Bradley (MIN): 6-7, 4.82 ERA, 102 SO — 0-1, 14.85 ERA vs CHW in 2 career starts
🔍 The White Sox have won four straight and pulled off a ninth-inning comeback Wednesday, snapping a 205-game losing streak when trailing after eight. Bradley has been hit hard by Chicago in past outings, allowing 11 runs in 6⅔ innings. With the Over at 11-2 in Chicago’s last 13, runs are likely again.
💰 Odds: Twins -157, White Sox +129 | Total: 8.5
New York Yankees (77-62, .554) @ Houston Astros (77-63, .550) – 7:40 PM ET
✅ Best Bet: Under 9.0 (-120)
🔹 Carlos Rodón (NYY): 15-7, 3.18 ERA, 177 SO — 4-0, 2.51 ERA in 11 starts vs HOU
🔹 Cristian Javier (HOU): 1-1, 3.38 ERA, 16 SO — .180 opponent avg vs NYY lineup
🔍 Rodón has shut down the Astros across 11 career starts, while Javier limits hard contact and just allowed 1 ER over 6 innings in his last outing. The Under has hit in 7 of Houston’s last 10 games and 6 of their last 9 at home. Two evenly matched teams with strong arms and elite bullpens point to a tight finish.
💰 Odds: Yankees -144, Astros +119 | Total: 9.0
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