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🔥 Top Picks
Tigers/Guardians Under 6.0 (-111) – 1:08 PM ET
Tarik Skubal dominated Cleveland in the regular season, posting a 0.64 ERA with 40 strikeouts across 28 innings. Gavin Williams counters with a 1.88 ERA in four September starts, including 11 innings of two-run ball in back-to-back outings vs Detroit. With both starters in form and the 6.0 total the lowest on the slate, this profiles as a tight, low-scoring game.
Cubs ML (-131) vs Padres – 3:08 PM ET
Matthew Boyd is 12-1 with a 2.51 ERA at Wrigley this season and leads a Cubs team that went 50-31 at home. San Diego finished just 38-43 on the road and Pivetta has been less effective away from Petco Park with a 3.55 ERA. Chicago's home-field and recent offensive momentum give them the edge in this opener.
Red Sox/Yankees Under 7.0 (-116) – 6:08 PM ET
Garrett Crochet has held the Yankees to a .200/.231/.370 line across four starts, while Max Fried posted a 1.96 ERA vs Boston in 2025. With both starters owning ERAs under 3.00 and the game labeled the “marquee pitching matchup of the Wild Card round,” the 7.0 total looks a bit high for two familiar lineups against top lefties.
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⚾ Game Previews
Detroit Tigers (87-75) @ Cleveland Guardians (88-74) – 1:08 PM ET
🔥 Top Pick: Under 6.0 (-111)
🔹 Tarik Skubal (DET): 13-6, 2.21 ERA, 241 SO — 0.64 ERA over 4 starts vs CLE (28 IP, 40 SO)
🔹 Gavin Williams (CLE): 12-5, 3.06 ERA, 173 SO — 1.88 ERA in September; 2 ER in 11 IP vs DET
🔍 This series opener features the lowest total of Tuesday's slate and two arms who’ve already shut down these exact lineups. Skubal led MLB with a 0.89 WHIP and Williams struck out 19 Tigers in 11 September innings. Detroit went 7-17 in September, striking out 70 times across their last six games vs Cleveland.
💰 Odds: Tigers -168, Guardians +138 | Total: 6.0
San Diego Padres (90-72) @ Chicago Cubs (92-70) – 3:08 PM ET
🔥 Top Pick: Cubs ML (-131)
🔹 Nick Pivetta (SD): 13-5, 2.87 ERA, 190 SO — 3.55 ERA on the road vs 2.36 at home
🔹 Matthew Boyd (CHC): 14-8, 3.21 ERA, 154 SO — 12-1, 2.51 ERA in 15 Wrigley starts
🔍 Chicago went 50-31 at home and 46-24 as betting favorites. The Cubs swept St. Louis to close the regular season and get their best home arm in Boyd, while the Padres enter with a 38-43 road record. San Diego’s bullpen has been elite (.208 BAA, .326 SLG allowed), but the Cubs’ offense has support from red-hot Suzuki and Hoerner.
💰 Odds: Cubs -131, Padres +107 | Total: 7.0
Boston Red Sox (89-73) @ New York Yankees (94-68) – 6:08 PM ET
🔥 Top Pick: Under 7.0 (-116)
🔹 Garrett Crochet (BOS): 18-5, 2.59 ERA, 255 SO — 10 ER in 27.1 IP vs NYY, .200 BAA
🔹 Max Fried (NYY): 19-5, 2.86 ERA, 189 SO — 1.96 ERA in 3 starts vs BOS
🔍 Boston won the season series 9-4 over New York, including eight straight wins. Crochet has 39 strikeouts in 27.1 IP vs the Yankees, while Fried held Boston to a .196 ERA mark, though New York lost two of those three games. With the total at 7.0 and bullpens factoring late, run prevention is likely to decide it.
💰 Odds: Yankees -136, Red Sox +111 | Total: 7.0
Cincinnati Reds (83-79) @ Los Angeles Dodgers (93-69) – 9:08 PM ET
✅ Best Bet: Under 7.0 (-108)
🔹 Hunter Greene (CIN): 7-4, 2.76 ERA, 132 SO — allowed 5 ER in last Dodger Stadium outing
🔹 Blake Snell (LAD): 5-4, 2.35 ERA, 72 SO — 1 ER allowed over final 3 starts (19 IP)
🔍 Greene has strikeout stuff but struggled in his last appearance at Dodger Stadium. Snell enters in sharp form, and the Reds hit just .229 vs lefties with a .653 OPS, both among the NL’s lowest. With LA’s .768 OPS and 244 home runs leading the NL, expect a power-vs-pitching contrast—but runs may be limited early.
💰 Odds: Dodgers -206, Reds +167 | Total: 7.0
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