Today's MLB Preview + Best Bets (9/3)

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Tigers ML (-102) vs Mets – 1:10 PM ET
Clay Holmes owns a 4.35 xERA and ranks in the bottom third of the league in strikeout rate, walk rate, and hard-hit rate, while Casey Mize holds superior metrics across the board. Detroit’s top-10 offense thrives at Comerica, and the Mets are well below .500 on the road.

Cubs -1.5 (+140) vs Braves – 7:40 PM ET
Cade Horton has posted a 1.44 ERA in his last five starts, while Bryce Elder counters with a 5.85 ERA on the year. The Cubs win 80% of the time when scoring first—the best in MLB—while Atlanta has lost five of its last six.

Over 8.5 (-124) – Blue Jays @ Reds – 6:40 PM ET
Toronto leads MLB in batting average (.268) and is averaging six runs per game over their last 10. With both teams combining for 21 runs on Tuesday and Cincinnati allowing 6 per game recently, the Over remains the play.

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🔹 Eury Pérez (MIA): 6-4, 4.04 ERA, 70 SO
🔹 Mitchell Parker (WSH): 7-15, 5.94 ERA, 94 SO
The Nationals are 2-8 in their last 10 with a 5.29 ERA and a 10.21 ERA from Parker in August. Miami has struggled against lefties (.339 SLG, lowest in MLB), but both offenses have been bottom-five in ISO and wRC+ since August 15.
💰 Odds: MIA -137, WSH +113 | Total: 9.0
✅ Best Bet: Under 9.0 (-108)

🔹 Clay Holmes (NYM): 11-6, 3.60 ERA, 111 SO
🔹 Casey Mize (DET): 12-5, 3.95 ERA, 107 SO
The Tigers get the edge behind Mize’s 3.76 xERA and elite contact suppression, while Holmes has allowed more than 3 ER just once post-break but owns poor peripherals. Detroit is dominant at home, and Mets hitters have a .331 xSLG vs Mize across 34 plate appearances.
💰 Odds: DET -102, NYM -119 | Total: 9.0
🔥 Top Pick: Tigers ML (-102)

🔹 Jack Leiter (TEX): 9-7, 3.77 ERA, 118 SO
🔹 Zac Gallen (ARI): 10-13, 4.94 ERA, 149 SO
Ketel Marte homered in both games of this series and has 4 homers vs Texas since mid-August. Gallen has put together three straight quality starts, and Leiter has 17 Ks over his last two.
💰 Odds: ARI -136, TEX +112 | Total: 9.0
✅ Best Bet: Over 9.0 (-103)

🔹 Cade Povich (BAL): 2-7, 5.04 ERA, 100 SO
🔹 Nestor Cortes (SD): 2-3, 5.06 ERA, 27 SO
Jeremiah Jackson has homered in both games against San Diego, extending his hitting streak to 13 games. Cortes is coming off six shutout innings vs LA, but both starters own ERAs north of 5.
💰 Odds: SD -168, BAL +138 | Total: 8.0
✅ Best Bet: Under 8.0 (-104)

🔹 Shohei Ohtani (LAD): 1-1, 4.18 ERA, 44 SO
🔹 Braxton Ashcraft (PIT): 4-2, 2.58 ERA, 48 SO
Pittsburgh has won 7 of 10 and hit .252 at home, while LA leads MLB in RISP OPS (.856). Ohtani has surrendered 11 runs over his last 17.1 innings and faces a hot Pirates lineup.
💰 Odds: LAD -180, PIT +147 | Total: 8.0
✅ Best Bet: Over 8.0 (-112)

🔹 Shane Bieber (TOR): 1-1, 2.38 ERA, 15 SO
🔹 Zack Littell (CIN): 9-8, 3.63 ERA, 110 SO
Toronto leads MLB in batting average (.268) and is getting huge production from Springer (.402 post-ASB) and Bichette (.367 last 27 games). Cincinnati has lost 7 of 10 while giving up 6 runs per game during that stretch.
💰 Odds: TOR -164, CIN +133 | Total: 8.5
🔥 Top Pick: Over 8.5 (-124)

🔹 Joey Cantillo (CLE): 3-3, 3.93 ERA, 80 SO
🔹 Brennan Bernardino (BOS): 4-2, 3.08 ERA
Cleveland has dropped 7 straight on the road and averages just 2.9 runs per game in their last 10. Boston’s .255 BA ranks second in the AL and they’ve gone 7-3 over their last 10.
💰 Odds: BOS -155, CLE +127 | Total: 9.0
✅ Best Bet: Over 9.0 (-120)

🔹 George Kirby (SEA): 8-6, 3.94 ERA, 103 SO
🔹 Adrian Houser (TB): 7-4, 2.85 ERA, 66 SO
Houser has 9 quality starts in 16 outings and a 2.85 ERA overall. Tampa has won 8 of their last 10 while allowing just 2.32 ERA in that stretch.
💰 Odds: SEA -143, TB +118 | Total: 8.5
✅ Best Bet: Under 8.5 (-111)

🔹 Caden Dana (LAA): 0-0, 7.50 ERA, 6 SO
🔹 Ryan Bergert (KC): 2-1, 2.67 ERA, 59 SO
Bergert has allowed 2 ER or fewer in each of his last 8 games, while Dana makes just his second MLB appearance. KC hitters strike out in just 18% of PAs, second-lowest in MLB.
💰 Odds: KC -182, LAA +149 | Total: 9.0
✅ Best Bet: Under 9.0 (-111)

🔹 Bryce Elder (ATL): 5-9, 5.85 ERA, 99 SO
🔹 Cade Horton (CHC): 9-4, 2.92 ERA, 81 SO
Horton owns a 1.44 ERA over his last 5 starts, while Elder has a 5.85 ERA on the season. Cubs are MLB-best in win rate when scoring first (80%), while Atlanta ranks second-worst in games scoring first.
💰 Odds: CHC -157, ATL +128 | Total: 8.0
🔥 Top Pick: Cubs -1.5 (+140)

🔹 Yoendrys Gómez (CHW): 3-2, 5.20 ERA, 35 SO
🔹 Zebby Matthews (MIN): 4-4, 5.06 ERA, 70 SO
The White Sox have won three straight and scored 12 in Tuesday’s win. Each of Minnesota’s last eight games and Chicago’s last four vs AL Central teams have gone Over.
💰 Odds: MIN -183, CHW +149 | Total: 8.5
✅ Best Bet: Over 8.5 (-108)

🔹 Aaron Nola (PHI): 3-7, 6.47 ERA, 66 SO
🔹 Jose Quintana (MIL): 10-5, 3.69 ERA, 77 SO
Philadelphia leads MLB in BA and hard-hit rate on first pitches, while Quintana gave up 6 ER in his last start. Milwaukee has lost four straight as favorites.
💰 Odds: MIL -113, PHI -108 | Total: 9.0
✅ Best Bet: Over 9.0 (-105)

🔹 Jeffrey Springs (OAK): 10-9, 4.17 ERA, 122 SO
🔹 Matthew Liberatore (STL): 6-11, 4.32 ERA, 102 SO
Liberatore has gone 0-3 with a 5.40 ERA in six August starts, while Springs posted a 5.04 ERA in August. Cardinals hitters could take advantage of a pitching staff allowing a .783 OPS to righties (2nd worst in MLB).
💰 Odds: OAK -110, STL -111 | Total: 8.5
✅ Best Bet: Over 8.5 (-119)

🔹 Will Warren (NYY): 8-6, 4.30 ERA, 149 SO
🔹 Jason Alexander (HOU): 4-1, 4.61 ERA, 46 SO
Aaron Judge leads MLB with a .325 AVG and 41 HRs, and the Yankees lead the AL in hard-hit rate (46%). Houston ranks last in average exit velocity (88.2 MPH).
💰 Odds: NYY -131, HOU +108 | Total: 9.0
✅ Best Bet: Over 9.0 (-107)

🔹 Robbie Ray (SF): 10-6, 3.18 ERA, 163 SO
🔹 Germán Márquez (COL): 3-12, 6.14 ERA, 73 SO
The Giants have won 9 of 10 and extended their HR streak to 16 straight games. Márquez has a 6.80 ERA in his last 92.2 IP at Coors and opponents are hitting .317 against Rockies starters.
💰 Odds: SF -211, COL +171 | Total: 11.0
✅ Best Bet: Over 11.0 (-117)

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