Today's MLB Preview + Best Bets (Thursday 9/25)

We deliver concise MLB previews with key takeaways for every matchup, so you’re informed without the hassle. Our AI-driven analysis simulates sports traders’ betting strategies to identify the best bets.

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Tigers/Guardians Under 7.5 (-103) – 6:40 PM ET
Cleveland rookie Parker Messick has been elite with a 2.08 ERA and a 31:5 K:BB ratio across seven MLB starts. Detroit’s offense has managed just 12 total runs over their last seven losses, and Progressive Field’s pitcher-friendly dimensions help support a low total.

Dodgers/Diamondbacks Over 8.5 (-111) – 3:40 PM ET
The Diamondbacks’ bullpen ranks 27th in ERA and allows a .353 OBP to right-handed hitters—highest in MLB. With Shohei Ohtani slugging 5 HR in his last 12 games and the Dodgers chasing the division crown, expect LA to capitalize early and often in a bullpen game.

Royals/Angels Over 9.0 (-124) – 9:38 PM ET
Michael Lorenzen (4.70 ERA) and Mitch Farris (6.52 ERA) have combined for an 11.22 ERA this season, and the Angels have a 6.18 team ERA over their last 10 games. Kansas City ranks best in MLB in lowest strikeout rate vs righties, while the Angels strike out more than any team.

✅ Best Bet: Under 8.0 (-112)
🔹 Braxton Ashcraft (PIT): 4-3, 2.62 ERA — limited to 3–4 innings; 2.77 ERA in September
🔹 Nick Lodolo (CIN): 8-8, 3.44 ERA — 4+ ER in 3 of 4 starts since return
🔍 Pittsburgh has won four straight and taken the first two games of this series, keeping Cincinnati’s playoff hopes in jeopardy. The Under has hit in 11 of 12 meetings this season, and the Reds have managed just five runs so far this series. Ashcraft and Lodolo both come in with notable limitations.
💰 Odds: Reds -180, Pirates +146 | Total: 8.0

✅ Best Bet: Rays ML (-120)
🔹 Drew Rasmussen (TB): 10-5, 2.80 ERA — 16 straight starts with 5 hits or fewer allowed
🔹 Cade Povich (BAL): 3-8, 5.06 ERA — struggles with HRs and walks
🔍 Rasmussen has been dominant when working ahead in counts and leads a Rays staff with the best two-strike bullpen OPS allowed in MLB (.411). The Orioles were held hitless through six innings in Wednesday’s 6-2 loss and have now dropped four of their last six.
💰 Odds: Rays -120, Orioles -102 | Total: 8.5

✅ Best Bet: Over 7.5 (-109)
🔹 Bailey Ober (MIN): 5-9, 5.32 ERA — 7.32 ERA vs Texas in 4 career starts
🔹 Tyler Mahle (TEX): 6-3, 2.20 ERA — 7.64 ERA in last 4 vs Minnesota
🔍 These offenses have averaged 15.5 runs per game in their last four meetings at Globe Life Field. Both starters have struggled badly in this matchup, and Minnesota’s bullpen ranks 25th in ERA.
💰 Odds: Rangers -149, Twins +123 | Total: 7.5

✅ Best Bet: Under 9.5 (-112)
🔹 Framber Valdez (HOU): 12-11, 3.75 ERA — 8.27 ERA in September
🔹 J.T. Ginn (OAK): 4-6, 4.57 ERA — 3-0 team record in starts vs HOU
🔍 Houston has scored just 8 total runs during a 5-game losing streak. Sutter Health Park’s pitcher-friendly dimensions and mild weather make the Under appealing, especially with both offenses struggling.
💰 Odds: Astros -115, Athletics -105 | Total: 9.5

🔥 Top Pick: Over 8.5 (-111)
🔹 Yoshinobu Yamamoto (LAD): 11-8, 2.58 ERA — 194 SO, 0.99 WHIP
🔹 Jalen Beeks (ARI): 5-2, 3.67 ERA — bullpen game likely
🔍 The Dodgers are pushing to clinch the division, while the Diamondbacks are one game back in the Wild Card. Arizona’s bullpen has been a liability (4.81 ERA), and Ohtani is red hot with 5 HR in his last 12. LA could do most of the damage here.
💰 Odds: Dodgers -180, Diamondbacks +147 | Total: 8.5

✅ Best Bet: Over 9.5 (+101)
🔹 Janson Junk (MIA): 6-3, 4.27 ERA — contact-heavy, vulnerable to power
🔹 Walker Buehler (PHI): 9-7, 5.13 ERA — 1 ER in 8.2 IP w/ Phillies
🔍 The Phillies lead MLB in home OPS (.828) and slugging (.480), and just launched 8 HRs in Wednesday’s blowout win. Schwarber leads with 56 HRs, and both previous games in the series have gone Over.
💰 Odds: Phillies -163, Marlins +133 | Total: 9.5

🔥 Top Pick: Under 7.5 (-103)
🔹 Troy Melton (DET): 3-2, 2.79 ERA — 1.40 WHIP, 3+ ER in 4 of last 6
🔹 Parker Messick (CLE): 3-0, 2.08 ERA — 31:5 K:BB ratio, never allowed >3 ER
🔍 Cleveland has won 12 of 13 while Detroit is 1-11 in their last 12 games. The Tigers have scored only 12 runs over their last 7 losses. Messick’s first-five ERA is 1.74, and Progressive Field ranks as pitcher-friendly.
💰 Odds: Guardians -151, Tigers +124 | Total: 7.5

✅ Best Bet: Under 8.5 (-103)
🔹 Davis Martin (CHW): 7-10, 4.03 ERA — lasted 3.2 IP vs NYY last start
🔹 Carlos Rodón (NYY): 17-9, 3.04 ERA — 2.87 home ERA, 198 SO
🔍 The Yankees have won four straight and lead the season series 5-1. Chicago has dropped 10 of their last 11 and ranks last in the AL in slugging and OPS vs right-handed pitching.
💰 Odds: Yankees -328, White Sox +255 | Total: 8.5

✅ Best Bet: Under 7.5 (-101)
🔹 Brayan Bello (BOS): 11-8, 3.34 ERA — 5.36 career ERA vs TOR
🔹 Louis Varland (TOR): 4-3, 3.10 ERA — 3.60 ERA in 5 relief outings vs BOS
🔍 Toronto and Boston rank No. 1 and No. 2 in AL batting average, but pitching may carry the finale. Bello has been solid, and Varland has kept Boston quiet out of the pen.
💰 Odds: Blue Jays -144, Red Sox +118 | Total: 7.5

🔥 Top Pick: Over 7.5 (-111)
🔹 Nolan McLean (NYM): 4-1, 1.27 ERA — 2 ER or fewer in all 7 starts
🔹 Shota Imanaga (CHC): 9-7, 3.37 ERA — 5 HR allowed in last 2 starts
🔍 Mets hit 3 HR off Imanaga in their last meeting, and they lead MLB with a 48% hard-hit rate vs RHP. Juan Soto (43 HR) anchors a powerful Mets lineup, and Wrigley has seen plenty of runs.
💰 Odds: Mets -115, Cubs -106 | Total: 7.5

🔥 Top Pick: Over 9.0 (-124)
🔹 Michael Lorenzen (KC): 6-11, 4.70 ERA — 3.49 career ERA at Angel Stadium
🔹 Mitch Farris (LAA): 1-2, 6.52 ERA — 11 ER over last 8.2 IP
🔍 The Angels own a 6.18 team ERA over their last 10 and strike out more than any team in MLB. Kansas City has hit .298 over their last 10 games and rarely swings and misses.
💰 Odds: Royals -115, Angels -106 | Total: 9.0

✅ Best Bet: Over 8.0 (-110)
🔹 Bradley Blalock (COL): 2-5, 9.16 ERA — 10 HR allowed in last 5 starts
🔹 TBD (SEA): bullpen game
🔍 Colorado starters lead MLB with a 6.61 ERA, and Blalock has allowed 16 HR in just 55 IP. Seattle has clinched the AL West and has won 14 of its last 15 games—don’t be surprised if they break this one open.
💰 Odds: Mariners -220, Rockies +178 | Total: 8.0

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