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🔥 Top Picks
Tigers ML (-161) @ Guardians – 6:40 PM ET
Skubal owns Cleveland with a 1.65 ERA and 0.82 WHIP over his last 9 meetings. Despite Detroit’s recent slide, this is a must-win spot behind their ace.
Royals -1.5 (+110) @ Angels – 9:38 PM ET
Sam Aldegheri has a 10.38 ERA and faces a Royals team batting .287 over their last 10. Kansas City should handle business against a struggling Angels squad hitting .191 in that same span.
Marlins/Phillies Over 8 (-107) – 6:45 PM ET
Miami’s 9-1 with a .275 average and 2.56 ERA in their last 10; Philly slugs .473 at home (2nd-best in MLB). Expect enough offense to push this total over.
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⚾ Game Previews
Tampa Bay Rays (76-80) @ Baltimore Orioles (73-83) – 6:35 PM
🔹 Ryan Pepiot (TB): 11-11, 3.77 ERA, 164 SO
🔹 Dean Kremer (BAL): 10-10, 4.39 ERA, 136 SO
Pepiot returns after throwing just 49 pitches in his last outing due to fatigue, while Kremer looks to build on recent quality starts. Both offenses are cold — Baltimore hitting just .214 since late August, and only two Rays hitters (Caminero, Diaz) have posted a wRC+ above 145 recently.
✅ Best Bet: Under 8.5 (-101)
💰 Odds: TB -121, BAL -101 | Total: 8.5
Detroit Tigers (85-71) @ Cleveland Guardians (84-72) – 6:40 PM
🔹 Tarik Skubal (DET): 13-5, 2.23 ERA, 233 SO
🔹 Gavin Williams (CLE): 11-5, 3.06 ERA, 161 SO
Skubal has a 1.65 ERA over his last 9 outings vs Cleveland, while Williams carries underlying concerns with a 4.35 xERA and poor contact quality metrics. Detroit leads MLB in AVG vs LHP (.267) and sits second in OPS (.781), while Cleveland is hitting .226 overall, tied for the MLB low.
🔥 Top Pick: Tigers ML (-161)
💰 Odds: DET -161, CLE +132 | Total: 6.5
Pittsburgh Pirates (67-89) @ Cincinnati Reds (80-76) – 6:40 PM
🔹 Johan Oviedo (PIT): 2-0, 3.52 ERA, 32 SO
🔹 Brady Singer (CIN): 14-10, 3.86 ERA, 155 SO
Reds have won 5 straight and are tied for the final NL playoff spot. Elly De La Cruz has reached base in 18 straight vs PIT and owns a .556 SLG at home. Great American Ball Park leads MLB in HR factor at 1.384.
✅ Best Bet: Over 8.5 (-110)
💰 Odds: CIN -164, PIT +134 | Total: 8.5
Miami Marlins (76-80) @ Philadelphia Phillies (92-64) – 6:45 PM
🔹 Edward Cabrera (MIA): 7-7, 3.57 ERA, 140 SO
🔹 Cristopher Sánchez (PHI): 13-5, 2.66 ERA, 198 SO
Marlins are 9-1 over their last 10 with a .275 AVG and +23 run differential, while Philly has hit .263 during that stretch and slugs .473 at home (2nd-best in MLB). Cabrera faces a lineup that’s patient and productive in hitter-friendly Citizens Bank Park.
🔥 Top Pick: Over 8.0 (-107)
💰 Odds: PHI -240, MIA +193 | Total: 8.0
Chicago White Sox (58-98) @ New York Yankees (88-68) – 7:05 PM
🔹 Shane Smith (CWS): 6-8, 4.06 ERA, 129 SO
🔹 Luis Gil (NYY): 4-1, 3.33 ERA, 36 SO
The White Sox are 2-8 in their last 10, averaging under 3 runs per game, while slugging just .362 vs righties — 2nd-worst in MLB. New York averages over 5 runs per game over that same stretch and leads MLB with 263 HR and 816 runs.
✅ Best Bet: Yankees Team Total Over 4.5
💰 Odds: NYY -232, CWS +186 | Total: 9.0
Boston Red Sox (85-71) @ Toronto Blue Jays (90-66) – 7:07 PM
🔹 Lucas Giolito (BOS): 10-4, 3.46 ERA, 118 SO
🔹 Kevin Gausman (TOR): 10-10, 3.38 ERA, 177 SO
Boston leads MLB in percentage of plate appearances with runners in scoring position (28%), while Toronto is averaging 4.92 runs per game and has won 7 of 10 vs Boston this season.
✅ Best Bet: Over 8.0 (-106)
💰 Odds: TOR -164, BOS +134 | Total: 8.0
Washington Nationals (64-93) @ Atlanta Braves (74-83) – 7:15 PM
🔹 Brad Lord (WSH): 5-8, 4.18 ERA, 100 SO
🔹 Hurston Waldrep (ATL): 5-1, 3.04 ERA, 50 SO
The Braves are 9-1 in their last 10, batting .307 and outscoring opponents by 42 runs, while Washington is hitting .208 and has the highest bullpen ERA (5.56) and OBP allowed (.357) in MLB.
✅ Best Bet: Over 9.0 (-102)
💰 Odds: ATL -194, WSH +158 | Total: 9.0
New York Mets (80-76) @ Chicago Cubs (88-68) – 7:40 PM
🔹 David Peterson (NYM): 9-6, 3.98 ERA, 149 SO
🔹 Cade Horton (CHC): 11-4, 2.66 ERA, 95 SO
Horton has a 0.93 ERA in 11 starts since the break, allowing 1 or fewer runs in 10 of those. Mets have lost 6 straight road games and face a tough righty despite ranking second-best in MLB in OPS vs RHP (.782).
✅ Best Bet: Under 7.5 (-117)
💰 Odds: CHC -110, NYM -111 | Total: 7.5
Minnesota Twins (67-89) @ Texas Rangers (79-77) – 8:05 PM
🔹 Zebby Matthews (MIN): 4-6, 5.97 ERA, 82 SO
🔹 Patrick Corbin (TEX): 7-10, 4.33 ERA, 124 SO
Texas has dropped 5 straight and is 3-7 in their last 10, allowing 4.4 runs per game. Minnesota’s pitching has allowed 5.9 per game in that span, and both starters carry ERAs above 4.
✅ Best Bet: Over 8.0 (-115)
💰 Odds: TEX -137, MIN +112 | Total: 8.0
Kansas City Royals (78-78) @ Los Angeles Angels (70-86) – 9:38 PM
🔹 Cole Ragans (KC): 2-3, 5.16 ERA, 80 SO
🔹 Sam Aldegheri (LAA): 0-0, 10.38 ERA, 4 SO
KC is batting .287 over their last 10, while the Angels are 1-9 in that stretch with a .191 AVG. Aldegheri’s 10.38 ERA sets the tone in what should be a clear road win.
🔥 Top Pick: Royals -1.5 (+110)
💰 Odds: KC -163, LAA +133 | Total: 9.0
Los Angeles Dodgers (88-68) @ Arizona Diamondbacks (79-77) – 9:40 PM
🔹 Shohei Ohtani (LAD): 1-1, 3.29 ERA, 54 SO
🔹 Brandon Pfaadt (ARI): 13-8, 5.02 ERA, 138 SO
Ohtani enters with 53 HR, 99 RBI, and a 1.1015 OPS. Arizona is 7-3 in their last 10 with a .284 AVG, while LA has hit .274 and outscored opponents by 15 in that same span.
✅ Best Bet: Over 9.0 (-106)
💰 Odds: LAD -163, ARI +133 | Total: 9.0
Colorado Rockies (43-113) @ Seattle Mariners (87-69) – 9:40 PM
🔹 TBD (COL)
🔹 TBD (SEA)
Seattle is 9-1 in their last 10 with a 2.84 ERA and +30 run differential. Colorado averages just 2.87 runs per game on the road and owns the league’s worst road OBP (.261) and OPS (.593).
✅ Best Bet: Under 8.0 (-110)
💰 Odds: SEA -282, COL +223 | Total: 8.0
Milwaukee Brewers (95-62) @ San Diego Padres (86-71) – 9:40 PM
🔹 TBD (MIL)
🔹 Randy Vásquez (SD): 5-7, 3.94 ERA, 74 SO
San Diego’s bullpen leads MLB in lowest OPS (.615) and SLG (.324) allowed. Vásquez posted 0.00 ERA vs Milwaukee in his lone appearance (4⅔ IP, .133 BAA).
✅ Best Bet: Under 8.5 (-101)
💰 Odds: SD -112, MIL -109 | Total: 8.5
St. Louis Cardinals (77-80) @ San Francisco Giants (77-80) – 9:45 PM
🔹 Andre Pallante (STL): 6-15, 5.29 ERA, 107 SO
🔹 Logan Webb (SF): 14-11, 3.27 ERA, 211 SO
Pallante has a 1.44 WHIP and the Cardinals have lost 8 of his last 9 starts. Both teams rank bottom-7 in MLB slugging — STL (.378) and SF (.384).
✅ Best Bet: Under 7.5 (-112)
💰 Odds: SF -200, STL +162 | Total: 7.5
Houston Astros (84-72) @ Sacramento Athletics (73-83) – 10:05 PM
🔹 Cristian Javier (HOU): 2-3, 4.45 ERA, 30 SO
🔹 Jeffrey Springs (OAK): 10-11, 4.17 ERA, 135 SO
Athletics starters have allowed a .656 SLG in non-two-strike counts, highest in MLB, while the Astros’ bullpen leads MLB with a 28% K-rate with RISP. The total is high at 10.5, and both teams have shown volatility.
✅ Best Bet: Over 10.5 (-106)
💰 Odds: OAK -111, HOU -110 | Total: 10.5
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