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🔥 Top Picks
Tigers/Mets Over 8.5 (-122) – 6:40 PM ET
Detroit's bullpen gave up 10 runs Monday, and now faces a Mets offense led by Juan Soto, who has homered in six straight games as a road favorite vs AL Central opponents. New York leads the NL in hard-hit rate (47%), and both teams rank top-10 in runs scored.
Red Sox -1.5 (-122) vs Guardians – 6:45 PM ET
Garrett Crochet has a 2.33 ERA in 12 Fenway starts and draws a Guardians lineup batting .219 vs lefties, third-worst in MLB. Slade Cecconi has allowed 3+ ER in 12 of 18 starts, and Boston has won 6 of 8.
Under 8.0 (-116) – Yankees @ Astros – 8:10 PM ET
Seven of Houston’s last eight and seven of the Yankees' last eight road games vs AL West teams have gone under the total. With both offenses disciplined but both starters (Fried/Valdez) showing inconsistency, this sets up for a tight, low-scoring opener.
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⚾ Game Previews
New York Mets (74-64, .536) @ Detroit Tigers (80-59, .576) – 6:40 PM ET
🔥 Top Pick: Over 8.5 (-122)
🔹 Nolan McLean (NYM): 3-0, 0.89 ERA — just 2 ER in first 20.1 IP
🔹 Sawyer Gipson-Long (DET): 0-1, 4.32 ERA — 4.84 xERA in two starts
🔍 McLean has been dominant in a tiny sample, but Detroit’s bullpen gave up 10 runs Monday and Soto remains red-hot. Both lineups are top-10 in scoring, and the Mets have the NL’s best hard-hit rate (47%). Expect another high total.
💰 Odds: Mets -133, Tigers +110 | Total: 8.5
Los Angeles Dodgers (78-59, .569) @ Pittsburgh Pirates (61-77, .442) – 6:40 PM ET
✅ Best Bet: Under 8.5 (-115)
🔹 Clayton Kershaw (LAD): 9-2, 3.06 ERA — 1.88 ERA in last 5 starts
🔹 Carmen Mlodzinski (PIT): 3-7, 3.86 ERA — hasn't completed 6 IP in any start
🔍 Kershaw is rolling, and Pittsburgh ranks last in the NL in late-inning scoring. Mlodzinski’s short outings plus a quiet Pirates offense (just 5.1 runs per game last 10) support a lean under 8.5, especially at pitcher-friendly PNC.
💰 Odds: Dodgers -176, Pirates +144 | Total: 8.5
Toronto Blue Jays (79-59, .572) @ Cincinnati Reds (70-68, .507) – 6:40 PM ET
✅ Best Bet: Under 8.5 (-113)
🔹 José Berríos (TOR): 9-5, 3.95 ERA — 3.43 ERA on the road
🔹 Nick Lodolo (CIN): 8-7, 3.22 ERA — first start vs TOR
🔍 Two playoff-hungry teams meet in Cincy, but both starters are capable of suppressing damage. Toronto leads MLB with a 17% strikeout rate, which could neutralize Lodolo’s swing-and-miss stuff. This matchup leans under despite the ballpark’s reputation.
💰 Odds: Reds -112, Jays -108 | Total: 8.5
Cleveland Guardians (68-68, .500) @ Boston Red Sox (77-62, .554) – 6:45 PM ET
🔥 Top Pick: Red Sox -1.5 (-122)
🔹 Slade Cecconi (CLE): 5-6, 4.41 ERA — 5.35 ERA over last 7 starts
🔹 Garrett Crochet (BOS): 14-5, 2.40 ERA — 2.33 ERA at Fenway
🔍 Boston’s won 6 of 8 and Cleveland’s lost six straight on the road. Crochet has been lights-out at home and faces a Guardians team batting .219 vs lefties. With Cecconi struggling, this lines up for a Boston run-line cover.
💰 Odds: Red Sox -268, Guardians +213 | Total: 7.5
Miami Marlins (65-73, .471) @ Washington Nationals (54-83, .394) – 6:45 PM ET
✅ Best Bet: Over 9.0 (-103)
🔹 Adam Mazur (MIA): 0-1, 5.59 ERA — 6 ER in 9.2 IP
🔹 Cade Cavalli (WSH): 1-1, 5.11 ERA — 6 HR in 24.2 IP
🔍 Both starters own 5+ ERAs and WHIPs above 1.45, and each bullpen ranks bottom-6 in FIP since August 1. With Washington breaking an 8-game losing streak and Miami leading the season series 5-2, this profiles as another high-scoring tilt.
💰 Odds: Nationals -115, Marlins -105 | Total: 9.0
Seattle Mariners (73-65, .529) @ Tampa Bay Rays (68-69, .496) – 7:35 PM ET
✅ Best Bet: Under 8.0 (-119)
🔹 Bryan Woo (SEA): 12-7, 2.95 ERA — 2.27 ERA in August
🔹 Drew Rasmussen (TB): 10-5, 2.64 ERA — 1.53 ERA last month
🔍 Two of the hottest August arms face off in a crucial Wild Card series. The Rays’ bullpen has allowed just a .402 OPS with two strikes, and Woo has gone 6+ innings in 24 of 25 starts. This is a clear under lean.
💰 Odds: Mariners -115, Rays -105 | Total: 8.0
Los Angeles Angels (64-73, .467) @ Kansas City Royals (70-67, .511) – 7:40 PM ET
✅ Best Bet: Under 9.0 (-115)
🔹 Mitch Farris (LAA): MLB debut — 4.27 ERA in Double-A
🔹 Michael Lorenzen (KC): 5-8, 4.62 ERA — 8 ER over last 2 starts
🔍 The Angels lead MLB in strikeout rate (26%) and have scored 3 or fewer in 5 of their last 8. Royals hitters strike out just 18% of the time and rank second in MLB in contact rate vs righties. Limited bats + unsteady pitching = Under 9.0.
💰 Odds: Royals -164, Angels +134 | Total: 9.0
Atlanta Braves (62-76, .449) @ Chicago Cubs (79-59, .572) – 7:40 PM ET
✅ Best Bet: Under 8.0 (-106)
🔹 Joey Wentz (ATL): 5-4, 4.92 ERA — 1.38 WHIP, 11 BB in 26 IP
🔹 Shota Imanaga (CHC): 8-6, 3.08 ERA — 0.93 WHIP at home
🔍 Wrigley has played pitcher-friendly all season (0.898 run factor), and Imanaga has allowed 2 ER or fewer in 7 of his last 9 starts. With both teams striking out under 20% in platoon splits, expect a clean and efficient pace.
💰 Odds: Cubs -181, Braves +147 | Total: 8.0
Chicago White Sox (50-88, .362) @ Minnesota Twins (62-75, .453) – 7:40 PM ET
✅ Best Bet: Over 9.0 (-119)
🔹 Davis Martin (CHW): 5-9, 4.03 ERA — 6.64 ERA in 5 career games vs MIN
🔹 Simeon Woods Richardson (MIN): 5-4, 4.59 ERA — no wins since July 8
🔍 Both teams are out of the race, and both pitchers have been volatile. The White Sox have the lowest OPS vs righties (.663), but Minnesota’s pitching staff has allowed 14 losses in their last 20 games. This one leans over the number.
💰 Odds: Twins -151, White Sox +123 | Total: 9.0
Athletics (64-75, .460) @ St. Louis Cardinals (68-71, .489) – 7:45 PM ET
✅ Best Bet: Over 8.5 (-112)
🔹 Luis Severino (OAK): 6-11, 4.82 ERA — 3.17 ERA on road
🔹 Miles Mikolas (STL): 6-10, 5.04 ERA — 15 ER in 22.1 August IP
🔍 Severino’s been solid on the road, but Mikolas has struggled badly of late. With Oakland swept over the weekend and St. Louis still clinging to Wild Card hopes, expect both lineups to push the pace.
💰 Odds: Cardinals -113, Athletics -108 | Total: 8.5
New York Yankees (76-61, .555) @ Houston Astros (76-62, .551) – 8:10 PM ET
🔥 Top Pick: Under 8.0 (-116)
🔹 Max Fried (NYY): 14-5, 3.06 ERA — 1 ER in 7 IP last outing
🔹 Framber Valdez (HOU): 12-7, 3.18 ERA — 7 scoreless last start
🔍 Both teams are battling for playoff seeding and are trending under — 7 of last 8 for each. The Yankees lead MLB in lowest chase rate (26%), while Houston chases most in the AL (30%). Expect a low-scoring, tight contest.
💰 Odds: Yankees -119, Astros -102 | Total: 8.0
San Francisco Giants (69-69, .500) @ Colorado Rockies (39-99, .283) – 8:40 PM ET
✅ Best Bet: Over 10.5 (-106)
🔹 Logan Webb (SF): 12-9, 3.16 ERA — 1 ER over 7 IP in last COL start
🔹 Kyle Freeland (COL): 3-13, 5.28 ERA — 3 ER in each of 2 starts vs SF
🔍 The Giants have scored 8+ runs in 8 of their last 9 wins, and just beat Colorado 8-2. Coors Field plus Freeland’s struggles make this a strong over spot.
💰 Odds: Giants -225, Rockies +182 | Total: 10.5
Baltimore Orioles (62-76, .449) @ San Diego Padres (76-62, .551) – 9:40 PM ET
✅ Best Bet: Under 8.5 (-115)
🔹 Tyler Wells (BAL): 2025 debut — 5.87 ERA in 2024
🔹 Yu Darvish (SD): 3-4, 5.66 ERA — 2.8 BB/9
🔍 Petco’s the most pitcher-friendly park on the slate, and Baltimore's road OPS sits at .232. With Wells likely limited and San Diego’s contact-oriented offense, expect a low-scoring game with bullpen-heavy middle innings.
💰 Odds: Padres -173, Orioles +141 | Total: 8.5
Texas Rangers (72-67, .518) @ Arizona Diamondbacks (68-71, .489) – 9:40 PM ET
✅ Best Bet: Over 9.5 (-102)
🔹 Rangers SP: TBD
🔹 Nabil Crismatt (ARI): 2-0, 1.84 ERA — limited innings, first start vs TEX
🔍 The hottest team in baseball has won 9 of 10 and averaged 9.5 runs during their 6-game win streak. With no confirmed starter and the bullpen seeing work, this total feels light.
💰 Odds: Diamondbacks -137, Rangers +112 | Total: 9.5
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