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🔥 Top Picks
Tigers/Braves Over 9.0 (-121) – 6:40 PM ET
Both Bryce Elder and Charlie Morton enter with matching 5.56 ERAs, and Atlanta’s offense is averaging 7.8 runs per game over its last five. With Morton allowing 11 ER in 10.2 IP this month and Detroit struggling to suppress scoring lately, this is a clear over spot.
Brewers/Cardinals Under 7.5 (-111) – 8:15 PM ET
Jacob Misiorowski ranks in the 88th percentile or better in xERA, xBA, and K%, while Sonny Gray has a 3.63 career ERA vs Milwaukee. Add in two of the league’s best bullpens by FIP and xERA, and this matchup shapes up to stay under.
Red Sox/Rays Under 7.0 (-124) – 7:35 PM ET
Crochet (2.63 ERA) and Rasmussen (2.74 ERA) headline one of the day’s tightest pitching matchups. Tampa Bay is just 18-24 vs left-handed pitching, and Boston’s bullpen ranks second-best in MLB in OPS and slugging allowed.
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⚾ Game Previews
Chicago Cubs (88-65) @ Cincinnati Reds (77-76) – 6:40 PM ET
✅ Best Bet: Under 8.0 (-106)
🔹 Shota Imanaga (CHC): 9-7, 3.29 ERA — 0.85 WHIP over last 7 starts
🔹 Nick Lodolo (CIN): 8-8, 3.30 ERA — .229 opponent AVG, 1.04 WHIP
🔍 Imanaga and Lodolo both bring sub-3.35 ERAs and strong WHIPs into this playoff-relevant NL Central battle. Cubs hitters own a .741 OPS vs lefties (3rd in NL), while Cincinnati’s just .645 (bottom-tier). With both teams familiar with each other and trending under, this total looks tight.
💰 Odds: Cubs -112, Reds -108 | Total: 8.0
Oakland Athletics (72-81) @ Pittsburgh Pirates (65-88) – 6:40 PM ET
✅ Best Bet: Under 8.5 (-108)
🔹 Luis Severino (OAK): 6-11, 4.82 ERA — 3.11 recent ERA, .274 wOBA allowed
🔹 Mitch Keller (PIT): 6-14, 4.13 ERA — 5.73 ERA since All-Star break
🔍 The Pirates rank last in MLB with just 545 runs scored, and have managed only 184 two-out runs all season. Oakland has three 30-HR hitters but the offense still profiles inconsistently. With both teams trending under, this one shapes up similarly.
💰 Odds: Athletics -113, Pirates -109 | Total: 8.5
Atlanta Braves (70-83) @ Detroit Tigers (85-68) – 6:40 PM ET
🔥 Top Pick: Over 9.0 (-121)
🔹 Bryce Elder (ATL): 7-10, 5.56 ERA — 6 ER in 4.1 IP vs HOU on Sep 13
🔹 Charlie Morton (DET): 9-10, 5.56 ERA — 11 ER over 10.2 IP in September
🔍 Atlanta has won six of seven while averaging 7.8 runs per game and posting a 2.54 ERA. Detroit has lost six of seven, allowing their division lead to shrink by 3 games. Both pitchers have been hit hard lately — lean over.
💰 Odds: Tigers -119, Braves -103 | Total: 9.0
New York Yankees (86-67) @ Baltimore Orioles (72-81) – 7:05 PM ET
✅ Best Bet: Under 9.0 (-113)
🔹 Will Warren (NYY): 8-7, 4.44 ERA — 5.40 ERA over last 25 IP
🔹 Trevor Rogers (BAL): 8-2, 1.43 ERA — 12 quality starts, 0 blowups
🔍 Baltimore’s last 12 home games have gone under the total, and Rogers has allowed 1 ER or fewer in most outings. The Yankees have won three straight, but with Rogers on the mound and the Orioles striking out at a 24% clip, expect a quiet game.
💰 Odds: Yankees -121, Orioles -101 | Total: 9.0
Washington Nationals (62-91) @ New York Mets (79-74) – 7:10 PM ET
✅ Best Bet: Under 8.5 (-101)
🔹 Andrew Alvarez (WSH): 1-0, 1.15 ERA — 0.83 WHIP, 11 SO
🔹 Brandon Sproat (NYM): 0-1, 2.25 ERA — back-to-back quality starts
🔍 The Mets are 48-30 at Citi Field and send out the steady Sproat. Alvarez impressed in his debut, and despite a weak Washington bullpen, both starters have been efficient. Lean under in a pitcher-friendly spot.
💰 Odds: Mets -229, Nationals +184 | Total: 8.5
Boston Red Sox (83-70) @ Tampa Bay Rays (75-78) – 7:35 PM ET
🔥 Top Pick: Under 7.0 (-124)
🔹 Garrett Crochet (BOS): 16-5, 2.63 ERA — 240 K in 191.1 IP
🔹 Drew Rasmussen (TB): 10-5, 2.74 ERA — 0.99 WHIP
🔍 Tampa Bay is just 18-24 vs LHP this year, and Boston’s bullpen ranks 2nd-best in OPS and SLG allowed. With both starters under 2.80 ERA and solid command, this one should stay low.
💰 Odds: Red Sox -137, Rays +113 | Total: 7.0
Toronto Blue Jays (89-64) @ Kansas City Royals (76-77) – 7:40 PM ET
✅ Best Bet: Over 9.0 (-101)
🔹 Max Scherzer (TOR): 5-3, 4.31 ERA — allowed 1 ER over 6 IP vs KC Aug 2
🔹 Michael Lorenzen (KC): 5-11, 4.91 ERA — 6.93 ERA in last 6
🔍 Kansas City has a 5.93 ERA and 5.7 RPG over the last five. Scherzer’s been inconsistent, and Lorenzen hasn’t won since July 1. Expect both lineups to capitalize.
💰 Odds: Blue Jays -142, Royals +117 | Total: 9.0
San Diego Padres (83-70) @ Chicago White Sox (57-96) – 7:40 PM ET
✅ Best Bet: Under 8.0 (-104)
🔹 Dylan Cease (SD): 8-11, 4.59 ERA — allowed 1 ER over 6 IP in last start
🔹 Davis Martin (CWS): 6-10, 4.01 ERA — 2 ER over 5 IP in last outing
🔍 Cease faces his former team for the first time, and San Diego’s bullpen leads MLB with a .619 opponent OPS. The White Sox offense has been quiet during a six-game losing streak.
💰 Odds: Padres -194, White Sox +158 | Total: 8.0
Miami Marlins (73-80) @ Texas Rangers (79-74) – 8:05 PM ET
✅ Best Bet: Under 8.0 (-112)
🔹 Janson Junk (MIA): 6-3, 4.48 ERA — 6.39 ERA in last 7 starts
🔹 Tyler Mahle (TEX): 6-3, 2.34 ERA — consistent all season
🔍 Miami starters have a 5.52 road ERA (2nd-worst MLB), but Mahle keeps Texas in tight games. With both teams under pressure and scuffling offensively, this total stays low.
💰 Odds: Rangers -151, Marlins +124 | Total: 8.0
Los Angeles Angels (69-84) @ Colorado Rockies (41-112) – 8:10 PM ET
✅ Best Bet: Over 12.0 (-109)
🔹 Mitch Farris (LAA): 1-1, 4.80 ERA — rookie, first start at Coors
🔹 Bradley Blalock (COL): 1-5, 9.00 ERA — highest starter ERA on slate
🔍 Coors Field + two shaky starters = runs. The Rockies have allowed 234 HRs (most in MLB), and their starters have a .314 opponent AVG. Trout sits at 399 HRs, and this could be the series he cracks 400.
💰 Odds: Angels -123, Rockies +101 | Total: 12.0
Seattle Mariners (84-69) @ Houston Astros (84-69) – 8:10 PM ET
✅ Best Bet: Under 7.5 (-122)
🔹 Bryan Woo (SEA): 14-7, 3.02 ERA — 2.77 ERA over last 8 starts
🔹 Hunter Brown (HOU): 12-7, 2.27 ERA — 2.70 ERA vs SEA, 9 straight QS
🔍 Both starters are in dominant form, and both bullpens carry ERAs under 3.75. With the AL West lead on the line, expect playoff-level intensity and few scoring chances.
💰 Odds: Mariners -113, Astros -108 | Total: 7.5
Cleveland Guardians (81-71) @ Minnesota Twins (66-86) – 8:10 PM ET
✅ Best Bet: Under 8.0 (-120)
🔹 Parker Messick (CLE): 3-0, 1.84 ERA — limiting hard contact
🔹 Pablo López (MIN): 5-4, 2.64 ERA — solid numbers overall
🔍 Cleveland has won 10 of 11 but ranks last in MLB in AVG vs RHP/RHB (.186). Minnesota hits just .126 on pitches outside the zone and struggles vs starters third time through.
💰 Odds: Guardians -114, Twins -106 | Total: 8.0
Milwaukee Brewers (94-59) @ St. Louis Cardinals (74-79) – 8:15 PM ET
🔥 Top Pick: Under 7.5 (-111)
🔹 Jacob Misiorowski (MIL): 5-2, 4.35 ERA — 88th+ percentile in xERA/xBA
🔹 Sonny Gray (STL): 13-8, 4.43 ERA — 3.63 career ERA vs MIL
🔍 Brewers rank top 10 in bullpen metrics across xERA, FIP, and xFIP. Cardinals’ relievers rank 3rd in FIP, and Misiorowski's peripherals back up his breakout.
💰 Odds: Brewers -125, Cardinals +103 | Total: 7.5
Philadelphia Phillies (91-62) @ Arizona Diamondbacks (77-76) – 9:40 PM ET
✅ Best Bet: Over 9.0 (-121)
🔹 Taijuan Walker (PHI): 5-8, 4.17 ERA — 4+ ER in 4 straight starts
🔹 Ryne Nelson (ARI): 7-3, 3.34 ERA — 2.76 ERA over last 17 starts
🔍 Nelson’s been steady, but Arizona’s bullpen has cost him 8 leads. Philly’s hot, and with Buehler backing Walker in a piggyback role, this sets up for early runs.
💰 Odds: Diamondbacks -126, Phillies +104 | Total: 9.0
San Francisco Giants (76-77) @ Los Angeles Dodgers (86-67) – 10:10 PM ET
✅ Best Bet: Over 8.5 (-121)
🔹 Robbie Ray (SF): 11-7, 3.50 ERA — 7.24 ERA last 3 starts
🔹 Clayton Kershaw (LAD): 10-2, 3.53 ERA — final regular season home start
🔍 The Giants are batting just .215 vs lefties (worst in NL), and the Dodgers lead the NL in SLG vs LHP (.443). With Kershaw’s farewell and both offenses clicking, this is a clear over spot.
💰 Odds: Dodgers -185, Giants +151 | Total: 8.5
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