We deliver concise MLB previews with key takeaways for every matchup, so you’re informed without the hassle. Our AI-driven analysis simulates sports traders’ betting strategies to identify the best bets.
We’re most active on Twitter. Reply to this email with your thoughts, bets, or anything else — we respond to every reply.
🔥 Top Picks
Tigers ML (-239) vs Guardians – 1:10 PM ET
Skubal has shut out Cleveland over 16 innings this year with 23 strikeouts. Detroit’s ace gives them a strong edge despite Cleveland’s recent surge.
Padres ML (+119) vs Mets – 1:10 PM ET
Randy Vásquez enters off six shutout innings with 9 Ks, while rookie Jonah Tong carries an 8.49 ERA and 5.40 BB/9. San Diego owns a 4–1 edge in the season series.
Brewers -1.5 (+100) vs Angels – 7:40 PM ET
Quinn Priester has posted a 2.25 ERA over his last five starts, and Milwaukee has outscored L.A. 18–4 in this series. The Angels have lost six straight and rank last in MLB in strikeout rate and team batting average.
Sponsored
🎯 Boost Your Edge with Novig
Looking for better odds and a smarter way to play? Check out Novig — the #1 Sports Prediction Market in the U.S.
🧠 On Novig, you trade, not bet. That means:
You play against other users, not the house
You can set your own odds or take the best available
You can play with Coins for fun, or trade Cash for the chance to win real rewards
💸 Use code MONTE on your first purchase to get a 50% match up to $25.
✅ Available in 42 states | Must be 21+ | No purchase necessary
Join the future of sports trading → Join Novig
⚾ Game Previews
Cleveland Guardians (80-71) @ Detroit Tigers (85-67) – 1:10 PM ET
🔥 Top Pick: Tigers ML (-239)
🔹 Tanner Bibee (CLE): 10-11, 4.44 ERA, 149 SO — Complete-game shutout in last start
🔹 Tarik Skubal (DET): 13-5, 2.26 ERA, 224 SO — 16 scoreless innings vs CLE with 23 Ks
🔍 Cleveland has won 11 of its last 12 and leads the season series 5-4, but Skubal has completely silenced their lineup in two previous meetings. The Guardians are hitting .186 in righty-righty matchups this season — lowest in MLB.
💰 Odds: Tigers -239, Guardians +192 | Total: 7.0 (Over -120, Under -102)
San Diego Padres (83-69) @ New York Mets (78-74) – 1:10 PM ET
🔥 Top Pick: Padres ML (+119)
🔹 Randy Vásquez (SD): 5-6, 3.72 ERA, 71 SO — Coming off 6 shutout innings, 9 Ks vs COL
🔹 Jonah Tong (NYM): 1-2, 8.49 ERA, 13 SO — Allowed 6 ER in 0.2 IP in last outing
🔍 The Mets have lost 8 of their last 10 and trail San Diego by five games in the Wild Card race. The Padres bullpen leads MLB with a .210 BAA and .619 OPS allowed.
💰 Odds: Mets -144, Padres +119 | Total: 9.0 (Over -108, Under -112)
Toronto Blue Jays (89-63) @ Tampa Bay Rays (74-78) – 1:10 PM ET
✅ Best Bet: Under 7.5 (-112)
🔹 Chris Bassitt (TOR): 11-8, 3.90 ERA, 163 SO — Faced TB twice with one QS, one poor start
🔹 Shane Baz (TB): 9-12, 5.15 ERA, 169 SO — Worse at home, HR and walk issues
🔍 The Blue Jays (.269 AVG, 18% K rate) face a Rays bullpen that allows just a .204 SLG and .198 OBP with two strikes — both best in MLB. Recent trends and matchups point toward a low-scoring series finale.
💰 Odds: Blue Jays -127, Rays +104 | Total: 7.5 (Over -108, Under -112)
Sacramento Athletics (71-81) @ Boston Red Sox (83-69) – 1:35 PM ET
✅ Best Bet: Over 9.0 (-108)
🔹 J.T. Ginn (OAK): 3-6, 4.69 ERA, 92 SO — 0 ER in last start, 4.43 ERA since IL return
🔹 Brayan Bello (BOS): 11-7, 3.25 ERA, 118 SO — 3.06 ERA since June, 89:32 K:BB over 117.2 IP
🔍 The Athletics lead MLB batting .295 vs pitchers past 80 pitches, and Boston is averaging 5.4 runs per game vs Oakland. Trevor Story’s 30/30 season adds a dangerous bat to Boston’s lineup.
💰 Odds: Red Sox -155, Athletics +127 | Total: 9.0 (Over -108, Under -112)
Seattle Mariners (83-69) @ Kansas City Royals (76-76) – 2:10 PM ET
✅ Best Bet: Over 9.0 (-120)
🔹 Luis Castillo (SEA): 9-8, 3.76 ERA, 149 SO — 6 IP, 1 ER in last start
🔹 Stephen Kolek (KC): 5-5, 3.71 ERA, 67 SO — 6.2 IP, 1 ER in last outing
🔍 Mariners hitters slug .724 on first pitches (best in MLB), and these teams have averaged 11.3 runs in their last three matchups. Each of their last 11 games at Kauffman Stadium has gone Over.
💰 Odds: Mariners -119, Royals -102 | Total: 9.0 (Over -120, Under -101)
Miami Marlins (72-80) @ Colorado Rockies (41-111) – 3:10 PM ET
✅ Best Bet: Over 10.0 (-116)
🔹 Sandy Alcantara (MIA): 9-12, 5.53 ERA, 131 SO — 7 IP, 2 ER vs DET in last start
🔹 Tanner Gordon (COL): 6-6, 6.14 ERA, 55 SO — 1 ER over 6 IP in last outing vs SD
🔍 Colorado starters own MLB’s worst ERA (6.67) and are even worse at home (7.67). Miami bats .259 on the road, tied for 2nd-best in the NL, and both teams combined for 12 runs Wednesday.
💰 Odds: Marlins -181, Rockies +148 | Total: 10.0 (Over -116, Under -105)
Chicago Cubs (88-64) @ Cincinnati Reds (76-76) – 7:15 PM ET
✅ Best Bet: Under 8.5 (-112)
🔹 CHC: TBD
🔹 Hunter Greene (CIN): 6-4, 3.01 ERA, 116 SO — 1.69 ERA, .145 BAA at home
🔍 Greene’s been dominant in Cincinnati, and the Cubs have already clinched a playoff berth. The Under has hit in 8 of their last 12 games.
💰 Odds: Reds -149, Cubs +122 | Total: 8.5 (Over -108, Under -112)
New York Yankees (85-67) @ Baltimore Orioles (72-80) – 7:15 PM ET
✅ Best Bet: Under 9.0 (-118)
🔹 Max Fried (NYY): 17-5, 3.03 ERA, 169 SO — 2 ER or fewer in 7 of last 10 starts
🔹 Cade Povich (BAL): 3-7, 5.05 ERA, 109 SO — 0-1 in 3 career starts vs NYY
🔍 Fried has limited opponents to a .228 average and 36 walks all season. Baltimore ranks in the bottom third in slugging and runs scored, and New York's pitching advantage is clear.
💰 Odds: Yankees -218, Orioles +176 | Total: 9.0 (Over -103, Under -118)
Los Angeles Angels (69-83) @ Milwaukee Brewers (93-59) – 7:40 PM ET
🔥 Top Pick: Brewers -1.5 (+100)
🔹 Yusei Kikuchi (LAA): 6-11, 4.08 ERA, 166 SO — 7.30 ERA over last 5 starts
🔹 Quinn Priester (MIL): 13-2, 3.25 ERA, 118 SO — 2.25 ERA over last 5 starts
🔍 The Brewers have outscored the Angels 18–4 in the series and are 4–1 in their last five games. L.A. is hitting .226 and striking out in 27% of PAs — both worst in MLB.
💰 Odds: Brewers -206, Angels +167 | Total: 8.0 (Over -112, Under -108)
San Francisco Giants (76-76) @ Los Angeles Dodgers (85-67) – 10:10 PM ET
✅ Best Bet: Over 7.5 (-113)
🔹 Logan Webb (SF): 14-10, 3.34 ERA, 206 SO — 6.35 ERA in last 5 starts vs LAD
🔹 Yoshinobu Yamamoto (LAD): 11-8, 2.66 ERA, 187 SO — 3.70 ERA in 2 starts vs SF
🔍 The Dodgers have won 7 of 10 and are averaging 6.4 runs in that span. Giants hitters have the NL's lowest OBP (.282) and AVG (.216) vs lefties, while LAD leads the NL in slugging and OPS vs LHP.
💰 Odds: Dodgers -175, Giants +143 | Total: 7.5 (Over -113, Under -108)
👀 New to Monte Carmelo?
Preview every MLB game today with our short-form write-ups. Each newsletter has:
🔮 Best Bets at the top.
📊 Game Previews below.
👀 Plus, we’re building tools to let you experiment on your own - more coming soon…
Are you a sportsbook operator? Reply to this email to discuss integrating our live game write-ups into your platform or explore our B2B site: montecarmelo.info
Interested in making your own newsletter? Use the link below to receive a 30-day trial + 20% OFF for 3 months on Beehiiv! Reply to this email, and we’ll even help you get started with AI tips and tricks to jumpstart your journey