Today's MLB Preview + Best Bets (9/16)

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Tigers ML (-143) vs Guardians – 6:40 PM ET
Casey Mize is 8-1 with a 3.47 ERA at home this season, and Detroit leads MLB with a .791 OPS against left-handed pitching. Cleveland enters hitting .225, the worst mark in MLB.

Padres ML (+103) @ Mets – 7:10 PM ET
Michael King has a 1.35 ERA and 0.90 WHIP across his last five starts vs New York, while San Diego’s bullpen leads MLB with a .623 OPS allowed. Clay Holmes allowed four runs in fewer than four innings in his last outing vs the Padres.

Cubs/Pirates Under 7.0 (-125) – 6:40 PM ET
Cade Horton has a 0.84 ERA since the All-Star break, while Paul Skenes has allowed two or fewer runs in 25 of 30 starts. Pittsburgh ranks last in MLB in OPS (.653) and runs scored.

📝 Doubleheader Note:
The Braves and Nationals will play a twin bill today in D.C. Jake Irvin starts Game 1 for Washington against a TBD Braves arm, while Game 2 features Chris Sale (2.52 ERA) vs MacKenzie Gore (4.14 ERA). Both games present pitching edges for Atlanta, which could capitalize on Washington’s league-worst bullpen ERA (5.42).

✅ Best Bet: Over 9.0 (-114)
🔹 Braves SP: TBD
🔹 Jake Irvin (WSH): 8-12, 5.70 ERA, 108 SO — 5.65 xERA, 5.62 FIP, 1.87 HR/9
🔍 Game 1 of a doubleheader features a struggling Irvin, whose ERA is backed by poor advanced metrics. Washington’s bullpen owns a 5.42 ERA, highest in MLB. Atlanta's Matt Olson has a 192 wRC+ over the last three weeks.
💰 Odds: Braves -146, Nationals +124 | Total: 9.0

🔥 Top Pick: Tigers ML (-143)
🔹 Joey Cantillo (CLE): 5-3, 3.36 ERA, 92 SO — 2.52 ERA last 7 starts
🔹 Casey Mize (DET): 14-5, 3.83 ERA, 118 SO — 8-1, 3.47 ERA at home
🔍 Detroit leads MLB with a .791 OPS vs lefties and has scored the seventh-most runs in baseball. Cleveland ranks worst in MLB in batting average (.225) and fewest hits.
💰 Odds: Tigers -143, Guardians +118 | Total: 8.0

🔥 Top Pick: Under 7.0 (-125)
🔹 Cade Horton (CHC): 10-4, 2.70 ERA — 0.84 ERA since All-Star break
🔹 Paul Skenes (PIT): 10-9, 1.92 ERA — 4-1, 1.58 ERA last 7 starts
🔍 Horton and Skenes have both allowed 2 ER or fewer in the majority of their recent starts. Pirates hitters have the lowest OPS in MLB (.653). Skenes has allowed 3 runs in 10 IP across two starts vs Chicago.
💰 Odds: Pirates -137, Cubs +113 | Total: 7.0

✅ Best Bet: Under 8.5 (-110)
🔹 Jeffrey Springs (OAK): 10-11, 4.28 ERA — 5 ER vs BOS in last start
🔹 Connelly Early (BOS): 1-0, 0.00 ERA — 11 SO in 5 IP debut vs OAK
🔍 Early struck out 11 over five scoreless innings in his debut against Oakland. The last five meetings between these teams have all gone under the total.
💰 Odds: Red Sox -163, Athletics +133 | Total: 8.5

✅ Best Bet: Braves ML (-192)
🔹 Chris Sale (ATL): 5-5, 2.52 ERA, 141 SO
🔹 MacKenzie Gore (WSH): 5-14, 4.14 ERA, 177 SO
🔍 Game 2 of the doubleheader features Chris Sale, who enters with a 2.52 ERA. Washington has a 62-88 record and lost seven of Irvin’s last eight starts earlier today.
💰 Odds: Braves -192, Nationals +156 | Total: 7.0

🔥 Top Pick: Padres ML (+103)
🔹 Michael King (SD): 4-2, 2.87 ERA — 1.35 ERA in last 5 vs NYM
🔹 Clay Holmes (NYM): 11-8, 3.75 ERA — 4 ER in last outing vs SD
🔍 King has dominated New York recently, while San Diego’s bullpen ranks best in MLB with a .623 OPS allowed. Mets hitters are batting .213 against King in 53 PAs.
💰 Odds: Mets -125, Padres +103 | Total: 8.0

✅ Best Bet: Under 8.5 (-113)
🔹 José Berríos (TOR): 9-5, 3.99 ERA — .190 avg vs TB in 2 starts
🔹 Ryan Pepiot (TB): 11-10, 3.59 ERA — 0 ER in last 3 outings
🔍 Both starters have been effective—Pepiot has three straight scoreless outings, while Berríos has held Tampa to a .190 average this season.
💰 Odds: Rays -112, Blue Jays -108 | Total: 8.5

✅ Best Bet: Under 8.5 (-115)
🔹 Logan Gilbert (SEA): 4-6, 3.54 ERA — 27 SO in last 19 IP
🔹 Michael Wacha (KC): 9-11, 3.45 ERA — 3 ER or fewer in last 7 home starts
🔍 Seattle enters on a 9-game win streak. The Mariners are slugging .721 on first pitches this season, highest in MLB.
💰 Odds: Mariners -137, Royals +113 | Total: 8.5

✅ Best Bet: Over 8.0 (-101)
🔹 Dean Kremer (BAL): 9-10, 4.43 ERA — 2.25 ERA in September
🔹 Shane Smith (CWS): 6-7, 3.78 ERA — 3 shutouts in last 7 starts
🔍 Kremer has allowed 23 home runs this season and is returning from forearm soreness. The Orioles have hit 176 home runs this year.
💰 Odds: White Sox -114, Orioles -107 | Total: 8.0

✅ Best Bet: Over 9.0 (-106)
🔹 Cam Schlittler (NYY): 3-3, 3.05 ERA — exceeded 15.5 outs in 4 of last 5
🔹 Zebby Matthews (MIN): 4-5, 5.06 ERA, 80 SO
🔍 The Yankees lead MLB in slugging percentage (.452) and walk rate (10%). The Twins have the lowest OPS with runners in scoring position (.678) in the AL.
💰 Odds: Yankees -156, Twins +128 | Total: 9.0

✅ Best Bet: Brewers -1.5 (-120)
🔹 Caden Dana (LAA): 0-1, 6.32 ERA — 5 ER in most recent start
🔹 Freddy Peralta (MIL): 16-6, 2.69 ERA — 0.99 HR/9
🔍 Angels hitters have struck out in 27% of PAs (highest in MLB), while Milwaukee starters have a 24% K-rate (4th best).
💰 Odds: Brewers -272, Angels +216 | Total: 8.0

✅ Best Bet: Under 8.0 (-112)
🔹 Andrew Abbott (CIN): 9-6, 2.79 ERA, 136 SO
🔹 Michael McGreevy (STL): 6-3, 4.44 ERA
🔍 St. Louis starting pitchers have MLB’s second-lowest strikeout rate at 18%. Cincinnati hitters have a 23% K-rate, pointing to quicker outs and a lower-scoring game.
💰 Odds: Reds -122, Cardinals +101 | Total: 8.0

✅ Best Bet: Over 8.0 (-102)
🔹 Merrill Kelly (TEX): 12-7, 3.21 ERA — 2.53 ERA last 5 starts
🔹 AJ Blubaugh (HOU): 3-1, 2.45 ERA — 0.91 WHIP
🔍 Four of Houston’s last five home games have gone Over the total, and five of Texas’s last six road games vs AL West have also gone Over.
💰 Odds: Rangers -121, Astros -101 | Total: 8.0

✅ Best Bet: Over 10.0 (-116)
🔹 Eury Pérez (MIA): 6-5, 4.67 ERA — 7.84 ERA in last 7 starts
🔹 Kyle Freeland (COL): 4-15, 4.97 ERA — 3.25 ERA last 7 starts
🔍 Pérez has a 6.44 ERA on the road and has allowed all 11 HRs in away games. Rockies have MLB’s worst team ERA at 6.05.
💰 Odds: Marlins -149, Rockies +122 | Total: 10.0

✅ Best Bet: Over 9.0 (-119)
🔹 Giants SP: TBD
🔹 Eduardo Rodriguez (ARI): 8-8, 4.98 ERA — 6.1 scoreless IP vs SF last outing
🔍 Giants hitters are batting .214 vs lefties, with MLB-worst OBP (.281) and OPS (.634). Arizona ranks sixth in home runs (204) and fourth in total runs (751).
💰 Odds: D-backs -132, Giants +108 | Total: 9.0

✅ Best Bet: Under 7.5 (-115)
🔹 Cristopher Sánchez (PHI): 13-5, 2.57 ERA — 1 ER or fewer in last 3 starts
🔹 Shohei Ohtani (LAD): 1-1, 3.75 ERA — has gone 5+ IP in 1 of 12 starts
🔍 Phillies pitchers allow the lowest average exit velocity in MLB (88.4 MPH). Ohtani has allowed just one ER over his last 8⅔ innings.
💰 Odds: Dodgers -137, Phillies +113 | Total: 7.5

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