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🔥 Top Picks
Astros -1.5 (+115) @ Braves – 1:35 PM ET
Joey Wentz has allowed 12 earned runs in 6.1 innings this month, while Houston has outscored Atlanta 17–5 across the first two games of this series. The Astros’ bullpen leads MLB with a 28% strikeout rate.
Cubs ML (-172) vs Rays – 2:20 PM ET
Tampa Bay ranks second-lowest in MLB with just 29% extra-base hits vs left-handed pitching. Cubs starter Shota Imanaga has a 0.95 WHIP over 129 innings.
Under 7.5 (-110) – Yankees @ Red Sox – 7:10 PM ET
Garrett Crochet has a 2.95 ERA with 27 strikeouts in his career vs New York, and both teams’ last five games against AL East opponents have gone under the total.
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⚾ Game Previews
Pittsburgh Pirates (65-84) @ Washington Nationals (61-87) – 11:35 AM ET
✅ Best Bet: Under 8.5 (+102)
🔹 Mike Burrows (PIT): 2-4, 3.99 ERA, 88 SO — 1 ER over last 3 starts
🔹 Cade Cavalli (WSH): 3-1, 4.67 ERA, 29 SO — 4.97 ERA in last 5 starts
🔍 Burrows has surrendered just one earned run over his last three starts. Pittsburgh is batting .215 with a .331 slugging percentage on the road this season. Washington has averaged 3.5 runs per game over its last five, while Pittsburgh has averaged 2.8.
💰 Odds: Pirates -147, Nationals +113 | Total: 8.5
Kansas City Royals (74-75) @ Philadelphia Phillies (89-60) – 1:35 PM ET
✅ Best Bet: Over 8.5 (-118)
🔹 Noah Cameron (KC): 7-7, 3.00 ERA, 96 SO — 7 IP, 2 ER, 8 SO, 0 BB vs CLE in last start
🔹 Aaron Nola (PHI): 4-8, 6.24 ERA, 79 SO — 6 shutout IP with 7 SO in last start
🔍 Nola has a 6.59 ERA over his last five starts. Philadelphia has averaged 6.6 runs per game over its last 10 and scored 8 runs in each of the first two games of this series. Kansas City has allowed a 5.27 ERA over its last five games.
💰 Odds: Phillies -158, Royals +129 | Total: 8.5
Houston Astros (81-68) @ Atlanta Braves (65-83) – 1:35 PM ET
🔥 Top Pick: Astros -1.5 (+115)
🔹 Framber Valdez (HOU): 12-9, 3.42 ERA, 171 SO — allowed 28 ER in 6 of last 7 starts
🔹 Joey Wentz (ATL): 5-6, 5.61 ERA, 77 SO — allowed 12 ER in 6.1 IP this month
🔍 Houston has won the first two games of this series 11–3 and 6–2. Atlanta’s bullpen has allowed an .865 OPS and a .279 batting average with runners in scoring position.
💰 Odds: Astros -138, Braves +114 | Total: 8.5
Baltimore Orioles (69-79) @ Toronto Blue Jays (86-62) – 1:37 PM ET
✅ Best Bet: Under 8.0 (-113)
🔹 Albert Suárez (BAL): 2-0, 2.08 ERA — 1.72 ERA in 5 career outings vs TOR
🔹 Shane Bieber (TOR): 2-1, 4.30 ERA — 3.60 ERA in 6 career starts vs BAL
🔍 Seven of each team’s last eight games have stayed under the total. Toronto leads MLB with a .269 batting average and strikes out in just 18% of plate appearances. Baltimore hitters strike out at a 24% rate, third-highest in MLB.
💰 Odds: Blue Jays -207, Orioles +168 | Total: 8.0
Texas Rangers (79-70) @ New York Mets (76-73) – 1:40 PM ET
✅ Best Bet: Under 8.0 (-118)
🔹 Jacob Latz (TEX): 2-0, 2.91 ERA, 66 SO — 5.2 scoreless IP in last start
🔹 Nolan McLean (NYM): 4-1, 1.42 ERA, 33 SO — 1 ER in 5.1 IP in last start
🔍 McLean allowed just one run in his most recent outing vs Philadelphia. Texas has won six straight games. The Mets have lost eight straight and have gone 31–49 since June 12.
💰 Odds: Mets -172, Rangers +141 | Total: 8.0
Chicago White Sox (57-92) @ Cleveland Guardians (77-71) – 1:40 PM ET
✅ Best Bet: Under 8.0 (-117)
🔹 Yoendrys Gómez (CWS): 3-2, 5.05 ERA, 45 SO — allowed 1 ER in 3 IP vs CLE earlier this season
🔹 Slade Cecconi (CLE): 6-6, 4.45 ERA, 94 SO — 8 scoreless IP in last start
🔍 Cleveland has won 8 of its last 9 games and its pitching staff owns a 1.56 ERA over 98 IP since September 3. White Sox hitters are slugging .364 against right-handed pitching, the lowest in the AL.
💰 Odds: Guardians -167, White Sox +137 | Total: 8.0
Detroit Tigers (84-65) @ Miami Marlins (70-79) – 1:40 PM ET
✅ Best Bet: Over 9.0 (-112)
🔹 Detroit: TBD (bullpen game likely)
🔹 Adam Mazur (MIA): 0-3, 6.30 ERA — allowed 11 ER in last 10.1 IP
🔍 Detroit leads MLB with a .270 batting average vs left-handed pitching and ranks second with a .791 OPS vs lefties. Mazur has lost his last two outings, allowing 11 runs across 10.1 innings. Miami has won four straight games.
💰 Odds: Tigers -134, Marlins +110 | Total: 9.0
Arizona Diamondbacks (74-75) @ Minnesota Twins (65-83) – 2:10 PM ET
✅ Best Bet: Over 9.5 (-102)
🔹 Nabil Crismatt (ARI): 2-0, 3.24 ERA — 4 ER in 4 IP in last start
🔹 Bailey Ober (MIN): 5-7, 5.08 ERA — 1 run in 5 IP in last start
🔍 The Diamondbacks are batting .295 and have a .364 OBP when facing a starting pitcher for the third time—both best in MLB. Arizona’s bullpen has a 5.57 ERA in close situations, highest in MLB. Minnesota’s bullpen has a 4.61 ERA, fifth-highest in MLB.
💰 Odds: Twins -120, D-backs -102 | Total: 9.5
St. Louis Cardinals (72-77) @ Milwaukee Brewers (91-58) – 2:10 PM ET
✅ Best Bet: Over 8.5 (-119)
🔹 Miles Mikolas (STL): 7-10, 4.84 ERA — 2.25 ERA over last 3 starts
🔹 José Quintana (MIL): 11-6, 3.88 ERA — 7.56 ERA over last 3 starts
🔍 Milwaukee rallied from a five-run deficit in Saturday’s 9–8 win and clinched its seventh playoff berth in eight seasons. St. Louis has lost five straight. There have been 10+ runs scored in three of the last four meetings between these teams.
💰 Odds: Brewers -197, Cardinals +160 | Total: 8.5
Tampa Bay Rays (73-75) @ Chicago Cubs (84-64) – 2:20 PM ET
🔥 Top Pick: Cubs ML (-172)
🔹 Adrian Houser (TB): 8-4, 3.11 ERA — Rays have won 5 straight Houser starts
🔹 Shota Imanaga (CHC): 9-7, 3.21 ERA — 0.95 WHIP across 129 IP
🔍 Tampa Bay hitters have just 29% extra-base hits vs lefties this season, second-lowest in MLB. The Cubs hold a 3.5-game lead over San Diego for the top NL wild-card spot.
💰 Odds: Cubs -172, Rays +141 | Total: 7.0
Cincinnati Reds (74-74) @ Oakland Athletics (69-80) – 4:05 PM ET
✅ Best Bet: Over 9.5 (-111)
🔹 Nick Lodolo (CIN): 8-7, 3.10 ERA — 5.40 ERA in lone previous start vs OAK
🔹 Luis Morales (OAK): 3-1, 2.73 ERA — 7th MLB start
🔍 Oakland hitters have a .785 OPS vs starters, best in MLB. Rookie Nick Kurtz hit a 493-foot grand slam Saturday, the longest HR in MLB this season. The Reds have lost two straight to the A's.
💰 Odds: Reds -112, Athletics -108 | Total: 9.5
Los Angeles Dodgers (83-65) @ San Francisco Giants (75-73) – 4:05 PM ET
✅ Best Bet: Under 7.5 (-102)
🔹 Tyler Glasnow (LAD): 2-3, 3.21 ERA — 1 H allowed over 7 IP in last start
🔹 Robbie Ray (SF): 11-6, 3.32 ERA — 2 ER over 5 IP in last outing
🔍 The Giants are batting .215 with a .635 OPS vs LHP—lowest in MLB. Dodgers starters have held opponents to a .143 average and .221 OBP in two-strike counts.
💰 Odds: Dodgers -136, Giants +112 | Total: 7.5
Colorado Rockies (41-108) @ San Diego Padres (81-68) – 4:10 PM ET
✅ Best Bet: Over 8.5 (-105)
🔹 Germán Márquez (COL): 3-13, 6.31 ERA — 8.10 ERA in two September starts
🔹 Yu Darvish (SD): 3-5, 5.65 ERA — 3 ER in 5.2 IP last start
🔍 Rockies starting pitchers have allowed a .896 OPS and .525 SLG—both highest in MLB. The Rockies are batting .204 on the road with a .330 SLG and average 2.82 runs per game—all worst in MLB.
💰 Odds: Padres -357, Rockies +275 | Total: 8.5
Los Angeles Angels (69-80) @ Seattle Mariners (81-68) – 4:10 PM ET
✅ Best Bet: Under 7.5 (-102)
🔹 Kyle Hendricks (LAA): 7-9, 4.58 ERA — 7 scoreless IP in last start
🔹 George Kirby (SEA): 8-7, 4.56 ERA — 4-1, 3.13 ERA vs LAA over last 5
🔍 Seattle has won 8 straight and gone 8–2 over their last 10 games. Angels hitters strike out in 27% of plate appearances, highest in MLB.
💰 Odds: Mariners -231, Angels +186 | Total: 7.5
New York Yankees (83-65) @ Boston Red Sox (81-68) – 7:10 PM ET
🔥 Top Pick: Under 7.5 (-110)
🔹 Will Warren (NYY): 8-6, 4.22 ERA, 158 SO — 8.68 ERA in career vs BOS
🔹 Garrett Crochet (BOS): 15-5, 2.57 ERA, 228 SO — 2.95 ERA, 27 SO vs NYY
🔍 Yankees lead MLB with a .454 slugging percentage vs left-handed pitching. All five of each team’s most recent games vs AL East opponents have gone under the total.
💰 Odds: Red Sox -156, Yankees +127 | Total: 7.5
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