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🔥 Top Picks
Blue Jays -1.5 (+115) vs Orioles – 3:07 PM ET
Tomoyuki Sugano has allowed 14 runs and six home runs over his last three starts and owns a 5.14 xERA with a .299 xBA, both ranking in the fourth percentile. Toronto leads MLB with a .268 batting average and has hit .300 against Sugano historically.
Astros ML (-136) @ Braves – 7:15 PM ET
Hunter Brown enters with a 2.25 ERA and allowed zero runs in his most recent start. Houston's bullpen leads MLB with a 32% miss rate and holds opponents to a .207 average with runners in scoring position, while Atlanta's bullpen allows an .867 OPS in those situations.
Guardians ML (-172) vs White Sox – 6:10 PM ET
Cleveland has won 8 of its last 10 and leads the season series 9-2. Parker Messick holds a 1.93 ERA and has allowed one run or fewer in three of his four appearances, while the White Sox are hitting .235 with two strikes — worst in MLB.
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⚾ Game Previews
Tampa Bay Rays (72-75) @ Chicago Cubs (84-63) – 2:20 PM ET
✅ Best Bet: Over 8.5 (-121)
🔹 Drew Rasmussen (TB): 10-5, 2.64 ERA, 117 SO
🔹 Colin Rea (CHC): 10-6, 4.20 ERA, 104 SO
🔍 Tampa Bay enters on a three-game losing streak and has been outscored by six runs over their last 10 games. Chicago is 6-4 in that span and reduced its magic number to seven after a 6-4 win Friday. Cubs starter Colin Rea will face a Rays offense that ranks seventh in MLB with a .251 team batting average.
💰 Odds: Rays -113, Cubs -107 | Total: 8.5
Baltimore Orioles (69-78) @ Toronto Blue Jays (85-62) – 3:07 PM ET
🔥 Top Pick: Blue Jays -1.5 (+115)
🔹 Tomoyuki Sugano (BAL): 10-8, 4.51 ERA, 96 SO
🔹 Max Scherzer (TOR): 5-3, 4.36 ERA, 70 SO
🔍 Sugano has surrendered 14 runs and six home runs over his last three starts and ranks in the fourth percentile for xERA (5.14) and xBA (.299). Toronto is hitting .268 on the season, lowest in strikeout rate (18%), and .300 historically against Sugano. Scherzer has a 1.80 ERA over his first four August starts and a .140 opponent batting average against the current Orioles lineup.
💰 Odds: Blue Jays -180, Orioles +147 | Total: 8.5
Pittsburgh Pirates (64-84) @ Washington Nationals (61-86) – 4:05 PM ET
✅ Best Bet: Over 9.0 (-119)
🔹 Bubba Chandler (PIT): 2-1, 7.36 ERA, 12 SO
🔹 Andrew Alvarez (WSH): 1-0, 1.86 ERA, 6 SO
🔍 The Nationals are hitting .277 over their last 10 games and have gone 7-3 in that span, while Pittsburgh is batting .203 and has been outscored by 11 runs. Pirates hitters have the lowest OPS in the National League at .655. Nationals relievers have a 5.36 ERA — highest in MLB.
💰 Odds: Pirates -115, Nationals -106 | Total: 9.0
Texas Rangers (78-70) @ New York Mets (76-72) – 4:10 PM ET
✅ Best Bet: Under 9.0 (-123)
🔹 Patrick Corbin (TEX): 7–9, 4.36 ERA, 119 SO
🔹 Brandon Sproat (NYM): 0-1, 4.50 ERA, 7 SO
🔍 Texas leads MLB with a 3.45 team ERA and their rotation holds a league-best 3.31 ERA. New York’s lineup has a 48% hard-hit rate vs right-handed pitching — highest in MLB. The Mets have lost seven straight games.
💰 Odds: Mets -161, Rangers +132 | Total: 9.0
Detroit Tigers (84-64) @ Miami Marlins (69-79) – 4:10 PM ET
✅ Best Bet: Over 8.5 (-119)
🔹 Charlie Morton (DET): 9-10, 5.59 ERA, 142 SO
🔹 Janson Junk (MIA): 6-3, 4.48 ERA, 64 SO
🔍 Morton has allowed 14 runs in his last 11 innings. Miami has averaged 7.1 runs over its last five games and is on a three-game winning streak. Detroit has gone over the total in five straight games, and Miami home games vs AL opponents have gone over in 7 of the last 8.
💰 Odds: Tigers -131, Marlins +107 | Total: 8.5
New York Yankees (82-65) @ Boston Red Sox (81-67) – 4:10 PM ET
✅ Best Bet: Under 8.5 (-103)
🔹 Max Fried (NYY): 16-5, 3.02 ERA, 163 SO
🔹 Brayan Bello (BOS): 11-6, 3.12 ERA, 114 SO
🔍 Fried has a 2.16 ERA across four career starts vs Boston. Yankees hitters lead MLB with a .793 OPS vs left-handed pitching. The Red Sox have held the Yankees to four or fewer runs in 6 of the last 7 games, and the Under has hit in 5 of the last 8 meetings.
💰 Odds: Yankees -137, Red Sox +113 | Total: 8.5
Kansas City Royals (74-74) @ Philadelphia Phillies (88-60) – 6:05 PM ET
✅ Best Bet: Over 9.5 (-108)
🔹 Ryan Bergert (KC): 2-2, 3.48 ERA, 68 SO
🔹 Taijuan Walker (PHI): 4-8, 4.03 ERA, 76 SO
🔍 Bergert allowed eight runs on 11 hits in his last start. The Phillies have averaged 5.7 runs per game over their last 10 and gone over the total in their last four wins. Over 9.5 runs has hit in the last seven meetings between these teams.
💰 Odds: Phillies -150, Royals +123 | Total: 9.5
Chicago White Sox (57-91) @ Cleveland Guardians (76-71) – 6:10 PM ET
🔥 Top Pick: Guardians ML (-172)
🔹 Davis Martin (CWS): 6-9, 4.03 ERA, 92 SO
🔹 Parker Messick (CLE): 2-0, 1.93 ERA, 18 SO
🔍 Cleveland has won 8 of their last 10 and leads the season series 9-2. The White Sox are hitting .235 with two strikes — worst in MLB. Messick has allowed one run or fewer in three of four starts.
💰 Odds: Guardians -172, White Sox +141 | Total: 7.5
Arizona D-backs (73-75) @ Minnesota Twins (65-82) – 7:10 PM ET
✅ Best Bet: Over 8.5 (-106)
🔹 Ryne Nelson (ARI): 7-3, 3.48 ERA, 118 SO
🔹 Joe Ryan (MIN): 13-8, 3.32 ERA, 176 SO
🔍 The Twins won Friday's game 9-8 with three home runs from Kody Clemens. Arizona's bullpen has a 5.59 ERA in close and late situations — highest in MLB.
💰 Odds: Twins -144, D-backs +118 | Total: 8.5
Houston Astros (80-68) @ Atlanta Braves (65-82) – 7:15 PM ET
🔥 Top Pick: Astros ML (-136)
🔹 Hunter Brown (HOU): 11-7, 2.25 ERA, 190 SO
🔹 Bryce Elder (ATL): 7-9, 5.35 ERA, 111 SO
🔍 Brown posted a 1.67 ERA across six August starts and threw six scoreless innings in his most recent outing. Houston’s bullpen leads MLB with a 32% miss rate and holds batters to a .207 average with runners in scoring position, while Atlanta allows an .867 OPS in those situations.
💰 Odds: Astros -136, Braves +112 | Total: 8.5
St. Louis Cardinals (72-76) @ Milwaukee Brewers (90-58) – 8:15 PM ET
✅ Best Bet: Under 7.5 (-102)
🔹 Sonny Gray (STL): 13-8, 4.45 ERA, 179 SO
🔹 Jacob Misiorowski (MIL): 5-2, 4.09 ERA, 77 SO
🔍 St. Louis has scored more than two runs just once in its last four games. Milwaukee can clinch a playoff spot with a win. Misiorowski allowed just one run over seven innings in his last outing.
💰 Odds: Brewers -163, Cardinals +133 | Total: 7.5
Colorado Rockies (41-107) @ San Diego Padres (80-68) – 8:40 PM ET
✅ Best Bet: Over 8.0 (-109)
🔹 Bradley Blalock (COL): 1-4, 8.62 ERA, 22 SO
🔹 Dylan Cease (SD): 7-11, 4.71 ERA, 195 SO
🔍 Blalock allowed 12 runs in a previous start vs San Diego and owns an 11.32 ERA in three appearances against them. Rockies rank last in MLB in road OPS (.592).
💰 Odds: Padres -375, Rockies +288 | Total: 8.0
Los Angeles Dodgers (82-65) @ San Francisco Giants (75-72) – 9:05 PM ET
✅ Best Bet: Under 7.5 (-108)
🔹 Clayton Kershaw (LAD): 10-2, 3.27 ERA, 69 SO
🔹 Logan Webb (SF): 14-9, 3.12 ERA, 201 SO
🔍 Kershaw has a 1.69 ERA in 30 appearances at Oracle Park. The Dodgers’ starting rotation allows a .141 average and .220 OBP with two strikes — both best in MLB.
💰 Odds: Dodgers -111, Giants -109 | Total: 7.5
Los Angeles Angels (69-79) @ Seattle Mariners (80-68) – 9:40 PM ET
✅ Best Bet: Under 7.5 (-105)
🔹 Mitch Farris (LAA): 1-0, 2.45 ERA, 7 SO
🔹 Bryan Woo (SEA): 13-7, 3.02 ERA, 178 SO
🔍 Seattle’s bullpen has thrown 32⅓ consecutive scoreless innings and the Mariners have won seven straight games. The Angels have the second-lowest batting average in MLB (.229) and the highest strikeout rate (27%).
💰 Odds: Mariners -232, Angels +187 | Total: 7.5
Cincinnati Reds (74-73) @ Oakland Athletics (68-80) – 10:05 PM ET
✅ Best Bet: Over 9.0 (-115)
🔹 Hunter Greene (CIN): 6-4, 2.59 ERA, 113 SO
🔹 Luis Severino (OAK): 6-11, 4.67 ERA, 114 SO
🔍 Severino has a 1-9 record with a 6.34 ERA in 13 home starts. Oakland starters have a 5.51 home ERA and allow a .455 slugging percentage — second-highest in MLB.
💰 Odds: Reds -120, Athletics -102 | Total: 9.0
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