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🔥 Top Picks
Tigers ML (-197) @ Marlins – 7:10 PM ET
Skubal (13-4, 2.10 ERA) leads MLB’s second-ranked strikeout staff (25% K rate) and draws a Marlins lineup struggling at home. Alcantara owns a 5.67 ERA, and Miami starters allow a league-worst .900 OPS with runners in scoring position.
Under 7.5 (-113) – Rays @ Cubs – 2:20 PM ET
Matthew Boyd’s 2.92 ERA is hiding recent struggles (5.70 ERA last five starts), while Baz’s xERA (3.77) shows promise despite the 4.94 surface number. Six straight meetings between these clubs have finished under 8 runs.
Over 10.5 (-104) – Reds @ Athletics – 10:05 PM ET
Brady Singer has a 1.80 ERA over his last five starts, but Oakland slugs .435 vs righties and J.T. Ginn has posted a 6.26 ERA in his last five outings. These clubs rank among the most volatile in late-season scoring.
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⚾ Game Previews
Tampa Bay Rays (72-74) @ Chicago Cubs (83-63) – 2:20 PM ET
🔥 Top Pick: Under 7.5 (-113)
🔹 Shane Baz (TB): 9-11, 4.94 ERA — 3.77 xERA
🔹 Matthew Boyd (CHC): 12-8, 2.92 ERA — 5.70 ERA over last five starts
🔍 Tampa has slugged .270 with 27 HR over their last 18 games, but both teams’ bullpens rank top 15 in ERA and xFIP. Boyd has 6+ Ks in each of his past 3 starts vs Tampa. This total has stayed under in six straight matchups.
💰 Odds: Cubs -167, Rays +137 | Total: 7.0
Pittsburgh Pirates (64-83) @ Washington Nationals (60-86) – 6:45 PM ET
✅ Best Bet: Over 8.0 (-109)
🔹 Mitch Keller (PIT): 6-14, 4.16 ERA — 5 ER in last 17.1 IP
🔹 Brad Lord (WSH): 5-8, 4.20 ERA — 7 ER in last home start
🔍 Pittsburgh has dropped six straight, while Washington's bullpen has allowed a .782 OPS and .352 OBP this year. Lord posted a 7.06 ERA over his final six August starts. Offense could show up late.
💰 Odds: Nationals -113, Pirates -107 | Total: 8.0
Kansas City Royals (74-73) @ Philadelphia Phillies (87-60) – 6:45 PM ET
✅ Best Bet: Over 9.0 (-119)
🔹 Michael Lorenzen (KC): 5-10, 4.63 ERA
🔹 Walker Buehler (PHI): 7-7, 5.45 ERA
🔍 Buehler’s ERA is the highest among Friday’s starters, and KC owns the worst OPS in MLB when pitchers are behind in the count (.882). Philly leads MLB in home OPS (.814), and the total is juiced toward the Over across books.
💰 Odds: Phillies -143, Royals +118 | Total: 9.0
Baltimore Orioles (69-77) @ Toronto Blue Jays (84-62) – 7:07 PM ET
✅ Best Bet: Under 7.5 (-107)
🔹 Trevor Rogers (BAL): 8-2, 1.51 ERA — more than 1 ER allowed in just 4 of 15 starts
🔹 Chris Bassitt (TOR): 11-8, 3.97 ERA — 3.08 ERA in last 7 starts; 2.76 ERA at home
🔍 Baltimore has scored 16 runs total in their last 6 games (2.67/game), while Toronto averaged just 3.2 runs in the 5 games prior to Thursday. Both lineups are cold, and both starters are in strong recent form.
💰 Odds: Blue Jays -137, Orioles +113 | Total: 7.5
Texas Rangers (77-70) @ New York Mets (76-71) – 7:10 PM ET
✅ Best Bet: Over 7.5 (-111)
🔹 Jacob deGrom (TEX): 11-7, 2.78 ERA — 3 scoreless outings in last 5 starts
🔹 Jonah Tong (NYM): 1-1, 4.09 ERA — allowed 3 HR in last start
🔍 The Mets have lost six straight and allow a .324 OBP from starters (5th-worst in MLB). The Rangers have won 15 of 20 and their rotation leads MLB with a 3.31 ERA.
💰 Odds: Mets -113, Rangers -108 | Total: 7.5
Chicago White Sox (57-90) @ Cleveland Guardians (75-71) – 7:10 PM ET
✅ Best Bet: Under 7.5 (-104)
🔹 Martín Pérez (CWS): 1-4, 3.15 ERA — 67th career appearance vs AL Central
🔹 Tanner Bibee (CLE): 9-11, 4.69 ERA — 2-0 vs CWS this year
🔍 These are two of the worst-hitting teams by average: CLE (.225, lowest MLB), CWS (.236, 4th-lowest). Both clubs come in playing competitive baseball, but neutral weather supports a lower total.
💰 Odds: Guardians -151, White Sox +124 | Total: 7.5
Detroit Tigers (84-63) @ Miami Marlins (68-79) – 7:10 PM ET
🔥 Top Pick: Tigers ML (-197)
🔹 Tarik Skubal (DET): 13-4, 2.10 ERA — 222 strikeouts
🔹 Sandy Alcantara (MIA): 8-12, 5.67 ERA — part of rotation with highest OBP/OPS allowed with RISP
🔍 Miami is just 3-7 in their last 10 and owns the worst OBP and OPS allowed with RISP by starters. Detroit has scored 6.5 runs per game over their last 10, and Skubal continues his AL Cy Young push.
💰 Odds: Tigers -197, Marlins +160 | Total: 7.0
New York Yankees (81-65) @ Boston Red Sox (81-66) – 7:10 PM ET
✅ Best Bet: Over 9.0 (-104)
🔹 Luis Gil (NYY): 3-1, 3.31 ERA — 5.9 BB/9; 1.53 WHIP
🔹 Lucas Giolito (BOS): 10-3, 3.38 ERA — xERA: 5.00
🔍 The Yankees lead the AL in wRC+ over the past month and reached 9 runs on Thursday. Boston has won 8 of 10 vs New York this season, and both starters are candidates for regression.
💰 Odds: Yankees -123, Red Sox +101 | Total: 9.0
Houston Astros (79-68) @ Atlanta Braves (65-81) – 7:15 PM ET
✅ Best Bet: Under 9.0 (-109)
🔹 Jayden Murray (HOU): MLB debut
🔹 Hurston Waldrep (ATL): 4-0, 1.33 ERA — 1.50 ERA at home
🔍 Waldrep has been untouchable through 7 starts, and Houston’s bullpen leads MLB with a 28% strikeout rate and .221 BAA. Atlanta was just eliminated from postseason contention and has lost two of its last three.
💰 Odds: Braves -119, Astros -102 | Total: 9.0
Arizona D-backs (73-74) @ Minnesota Twins (64-82) – 8:10 PM ET
✅ Best Bet: Under 8.5 (-112)
🔹 Brandon Pfaadt (ARI): 13-8, 5.18 ERA — 7.13 road ERA
🔹 Pablo López (MIN): 5-4, 2.84 ERA — 6 IP, 2 ER in return from IL
🔍 The Twins have won 8 straight home games vs Arizona, and D-backs relievers allow a league-worst .810 OPS to righties. López looked sharp last time out, and both offenses rank mid-pack in September production.
💰 Odds: Twins -144, D-backs +118 | Total: 8.5
St. Louis Cardinals (72-75) @ Milwaukee Brewers (89-58) – 8:10 PM ET
✅ Best Bet: Over 8.0 (-119)
🔹 Andre Pallante (STL): 6-13, 5.28 ERA — 6.84 ERA in last 5 starts
🔹 Quinn Priester (MIL): 12-2, 3.25 ERA — Brewers have won last 14 of his starts
🔍 The Cardinals have lost four straight road games, and Milwaukee is 8-0 in their last 8 vs NL Central teams under .500. STL ranks last in the NL in two-out batting average (.218), while Milwaukee ranks second in MLB at .254.
💰 Odds: Brewers -194, Cardinals +158 | Total: 8.0
Colorado Rockies (40-107) @ San Diego Padres (80-67) – 9:40 PM ET
✅ Best Bet: Under 8.5 (-115)
🔹 Tanner Gordon (COL): 5-6, 6.60 ERA — 6 ER in last start vs SD
🔹 JP Sears (SD): 8-10, 5.01 ERA — first appearance in over a year
🔍 Colorado has not scored in 38 straight innings at Petco and is averaging just 2.81 runs per game on the road (worst in MLB). San Diego won the opener 2-0 and continues to lean on pitching.
💰 Odds: Padres -272, Rockies +216 | Total: 8.5
Cincinnati Reds (74-72) @ Oakland Athletics (67-80) – 10:05 PM ET
🔥 Top Pick: Over 10.5 (-104)
🔹 Brady Singer (CIN): 13-9, 3.98 ERA — 1.80 ERA over last 5 starts
🔹 J.T. Ginn (OAK): 3-6, 4.95 ERA — 6.26 ERA last 5 outings; 1.34 WHIP
🔍 Oakland slugs .435 against righties, and Cincinnati struggles in two-strike counts (.166 AVG). Both teams have shown volatility, and Ginn’s 6.64 home ERA adds to the fireworks potential.
💰 Odds: Athletics -131, Reds +108 | Total: 10.5
Los Angeles Angels (69-78) @ Seattle Mariners (79-68) – 10:10 PM ET
✅ Best Bet: Over 7.5 (-118)
🔹 Yusei Kikuchi (LAA): 6-11, 4.18 ERA — 12 ER in last 7.2 IP
🔹 Luis Castillo (SEA): 9-8, 3.85 ERA — 2.79 ERA at home
🔍 The Mariners and Angels rank top 4 in home runs this year, and Seattle is riding a five-game win streak. LA’s 26% strikeout rate is highest in MLB, and Kikuchi’s recent form has been poor.
💰 Odds: Mariners -189, Angels +154 | Total: 7.5
Los Angeles Dodgers (82-64) @ San Francisco Giants (74-72) – 10:15 PM ET
✅ Best Bet: Over 8.0 (-105)
🔹 Yoshinobu Yamamoto (LAD): 11-8, 2.72 ERA — 4.67 ERA vs SF
🔹 Justin Verlander (SF): 3-10, 4.09 ERA — 11 scoreless IP in last 2 starts
🔍 The Giants lead MLB in HR this September (19) and rank 2nd in AVG (.288) and OPS (.868). Dodgers have outscored opponents 24-5 over their last 4 games, all wins by 2+ runs.
💰 Odds: Dodgers -158, Giants +129 | Total: 8.0
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