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🔥 Top Picks
Tigers ML (+141) @ Yankees – 7:05 PM ET
Detroit has outscored the Yankees 23-4 in the first two games of this series and enters 6–1 against New York since August 17 with a +33 run differential. Cam Schlittler allowed 4 runs in just 1.2 innings in his last outing, while the Yankees are averaging 2.2 runs over their last five games.
Padres -1.5 (-118) vs Rockies – 9:40 PM ET
McCade Brown enters with a 12.54 ERA and allowed a three-run homer to Tatis in their last meeting. Padres opponents are hitting just .213 against their bullpen—the best mark in MLB—while Colorado’s starting rotation has allowed a .315 opponent average and 6.04 team ERA, both worst in MLB.
Over 8.5 (-114): Mets @ Phillies – 7:15 PM ET
David Peterson has posted a 6.69 ERA since August and allowed 5 runs in 4 innings in his last start vs Philadelphia. The Phillies have outscored the Mets 21-6 in this series and rank third in OPS and fourth in runs scored over the past 30 days.
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⚾ Game Previews
Pittsburgh Pirates (64-82) @ Baltimore Orioles (68-77) – 1:05 PM ET
🔹 Johan Oviedo (PIT): 2-0, 2.70 ERA, 24 SO – 6 ER over last 20 IP since returning from Tommy John surgery
🔹 Cade Povich (BAL): 3-7, 5.16 ERA, 103 SO – 18 ER in last 32 IP
✅ Best Bet: Over 8.5 (-108)
The Orioles are 8–2 in their last 10 games, while the Pirates are 4–6 with a .200 team batting average in that span. Both teams have bottom-five bullpens, and the Over appears attractive despite solid starting pitching on paper.
💰 Odds: Orioles -122, Pirates +100 | Total: 8.5
Tampa Bay Rays (72-73) @ Chicago White Sox (56-90) – 2:10 PM ET
🔹 Ian Seymour (TB): 3-1, 2.89 ERA, 47 SO – 1.10 WHIP
🔹 Shane Smith (CHW): 5-7, 3.95 ERA, 118 SO – 1.20 WHIP
✅ Best Bet: Over 8.0 (-102)
Tampa Bay's relievers lead MLB with a .401 OPS allowed in two-strike counts, while Chicago’s bullpen walks 13% of batters in close situations—the highest rate in MLB. The White Sox have won 8 of their last 10 and outscored opponents by 13 runs during that span.
💰 Odds: Rays -132, White Sox +109 | Total: 8.0
Houston Astros (79-67) @ Toronto Blue Jays (83-62) – 3:07 PM ET
🔹 Cristian Javier (HOU): 1-2, 4.43 ERA, 20 SO – 12 BB in 20.1 IP
🔹 Kevin Gausman (TOR): 9-10, 3.63 ERA, 162 SO – 2.59 ERA since All-Star break
✅ Best Bet: Under 8.5 (-109)
Toronto has gone under the total in each of Gausman’s last five starts, and Houston ranks last in runs scored over the last 30 days. Blue Jays hitters have MLB’s lowest strikeout rate (18%) and lowest swing-and-miss rate (21%).
💰 Odds: Blue Jays -163, Astros +134 | Total: 8.5
Washington Nationals (60-85) @ Miami Marlins (67-79) – 6:40 PM ET
🔹 MacKenzie Gore (WSH): 5-13, 4.15 ERA, 173 SO – Returns from IL
🔹 Ryan Weathers (MIA): 1-1, 3.28 ERA, 23 SO – First MLB outing since June 7
✅ Best Bet: Under 8.0 (-110)
Gore and Weathers both return from injury layoffs, with Miami’s rotation allowing a .315 average with runners in scoring position—highest in MLB. Washington’s bullpen holds a league-worst 5.35 ERA across 521⅓ IP.
💰 Odds: Marlins -118, Nationals -103 | Total: 8.0
Detroit Tigers (84-62) @ New York Yankees (80-65) – 7:05 PM ET
🔥 Top Pick: Tigers ML (+141)
🔹 Tyler Holton (DET): 5-4, 3.80 ERA – 3.31 ERA on the road
🔹 Cam Schlittler (NYY): 2-3, 3.24 ERA – 4 ER in 1.2 IP in last outing
Detroit has won the first two games of this series by scores of 12-3 and 11-1. The Yankees are averaging just 2.2 runs over their last five games, and Detroit is 6–1 vs New York since August 17.
💰 Odds: Yankees -172, Tigers +141 | Total: 8.5
Kansas City Royals (74-72) @ Cleveland Guardians (74-71) – 7:15 PM ET
🔹 Stephen Kolek (KC): 5-5, 3.88 ERA, 63 SO – 4 ER, 0 outs in last start vs CLE
🔹 Gavin Williams (CLE): 10-5, 3.17 ERA – 2.23 ERA over last 7 starts
✅ Best Bet: Over 7.5 (-112)
Cleveland has the lowest batting average in MLB at .226, while Kansas City’s hitters strike out just 18% of the time—second-best in MLB. The total has gone over 7.5 in three of Kolek’s last five starts.
💰 Odds: Guardians -144, Royals +119 | Total: 7.5
New York Mets (76-70) @ Philadelphia Phillies (86-60) – 7:15 PM ET
🔥 Top Pick: Over 8.5 (-114)
🔹 David Peterson (NYM): 9-5, 3.72 ERA – 6.69 ERA since August
🔹 Jesús Luzardo (PHI): 13-6, 4.01 ERA – 4 ER in 4 IP vs NYM in last start
The Phillies have outscored the Mets 21-6 in this series, including 9 and 11-run outbursts. Philadelphia ranks third in OPS and fourth in runs over the past 30 days.
💰 Odds: Phillies -132, Mets +109 | Total: 8.5
Colorado Rockies (40-106) @ San Diego Padres (79-67) – 9:40 PM ET
🔥 Top Pick: Padres -1.5 (-118)
🔹 McCade Brown (COL): 0-3, 12.54 ERA – Allowed 3-run HR to Tatis on Sept 6
🔹 Randy Vásquez (SD): 4-6, 3.91 ERA – 2 ER in 6 IP vs COL in last start
Colorado’s starting pitchers have allowed a .315 opponent average (worst in MLB) with a 6.04 ERA. Padres relievers have allowed a .213 opponent average—the best in MLB.
💰 Odds: Padres -258, Rockies +205 | Total: 8.5
Los Angeles Angels (69-77) @ Seattle Mariners (78-68) – 9:40 PM ET
🔹 José Soriano (LAA): 10-10, 4.07 ERA – 1.37 WHIP, 4.10 xERA
🔹 Bryce Miller (SEA): 4-5, 5.53 ERA – Ranks bottom 8th percentile or lower in major ERA/xERA metrics
✅ Best Bet: Over 8.0 (-105)
Angels hitters have struck out in 26% of plate appearances this season—highest in MLB. Mariners hitters are slugging .716 and batting .373 on the first pitch of at-bats, both among MLB’s top two marks.
💰 Odds: Mariners -158, Angels +129 | Total: 8.0
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