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🔥 Top Picks
Giants/Rockies Over 11.5 (-102) – 4:10 PM ET
Two struggling starters meet at Coors Field, where Kai-Wei Teng (8.78 ERA) and Chase Dollander (9.88 home ERA) have been hammered. These clubs combined for 15, 17, and 11 runs in their last series in Colorado.
Tigers/Mets Over 8.5 (-102) – 1:10 PM ET
Both starters have ERAs over 5.00, and the Mets are red-hot—batting .317 with 57 runs over their last 7 games. Detroit’s .780 OPS vs lefties (2nd-best in MLB) gives them the edge against Manaea.
Twins ML (-194) vs White Sox – 2:10 PM ET
Bailey Ober owns a 6-2 record and 3.43 ERA in his career vs Chicago, who have the worst OPS (.660) vs righties in MLB. The Twins have won 14 of their last 15 home games against the White Sox.
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⚾ Game Previews
Miami Marlins (65-72) @ Washington Nationals (53-83) – 1:05 PM ET
✅ Best Bet: Over 9.0 (-108)
🔹 TBD (MIA bullpen likely)
🔹 Andrew Alvarez (WSH): MLB debut — 4.10 ERA in AAA
🔍 Miami ranks second in MLB with a .254 average with two outs and leads the NL in first-pitch contact rate (39%). Washington’s bullpen owns MLB’s highest ERA (5.42), and Alvarez is making his MLB debut. With pitching uncertainty on both sides, this leans over.
💰 Odds: Nationals -126, Marlins +104 | Total: 9.0
New York Mets (73-64) @ Detroit Tigers (80-58) – 1:10 PM ET
🔥 Top Pick: Over 8.5 (-102)
🔹 Sean Manaea (NYM): 1-2, 5.01 ERA — 7.13 ERA in August
🔹 Charlie Morton (DET): 9-10, 5.25 ERA — 2 ER in last home start
🔍 The Mets are raking, hitting .317 and scoring 57 runs in their last 7 games, while Soto is 8-for-14 with 3 HR lifetime vs Morton. Detroit ranks second in MLB with a .780 OPS vs lefties. Expect offense on both sides.
💰 Odds: Mets -121, Tigers -101 | Total: 8.5
Toronto Blue Jays (79-58) @ Cincinnati Reds (69-68) – 1:10 PM ET
✅ Best Bet: Over 8.0 (-112)
🔹 Chris Bassitt (TOR): 11-7, 4.14 ERA — 6.10 ERA on the road
🔹 Hunter Greene (CIN): 5-4, 2.81 ERA — 0.97 WHIP, 94 K in 77 IP
🔍 Toronto owns MLB’s lowest strikeout rate (17%), which could limit Greene’s biggest weapon. Bassitt’s road struggles and both teams’ offensive talent make this an Over candidate.
💰 Odds: Reds -124, Blue Jays +102 | Total: 8.0
Cleveland Guardians (68-67) @ Boston Red Sox (76-62) – 1:35 PM ET
✅ Best Bet: Under 8.5 (-115)
🔹 Parker Messick (CLE): 1-0, 0.66 ERA — 1 ER across 13.2 IP
🔹 Brayan Bello (BOS): 10-6, 2.99 ERA — 2.45 ERA in last 7 starts
🔍 Messick has been nearly unhittable through two career starts, and Bello has limited opponents to one ER or fewer in 4 of his last 6. Cleveland owns MLB’s lowest batting average (.223) and OPS (.660).
💰 Odds: Red Sox -149, Guardians +122 | Total: 8.5
Los Angeles Angels (64-72) @ Houston Astros (75-62) – 2:10 PM ET
✅ Best Bet: Under 8.5 (-113)
🔹 Yusei Kikuchi (LAA): 6-9, 3.68 ERA — 1-5, 5.67 ERA career vs HOU
🔹 Luis Garcia (HOU): First MLB start since May 2023
🔍 Garcia returns from Tommy John after 9 rehab outings and faces an Angels lineup that strikes out more than any team (26%). Houston has scored just 1 run in its last 18 innings.
💰 Odds: Astros -150, Angels +123 | Total: 8.5
Chicago White Sox (49-88) @ Minnesota Twins (62-74) – 2:10 PM ET
🔥 Top Pick: Twins ML (-194)
🔹 Aaron Civale (CWS): 3-9, 5.26 ERA
🔹 Bailey Ober (MIN): 4-7, 5.14 ERA — 6-2, 3.43 ERA career vs CHW
🔍 Minnesota has dominated this matchup, winning 14 of their last 15 at home vs the White Sox. Chicago has MLB's lowest OPS vs right-handed pitching (.660), and Ober has held them to a .186 AVG.
💰 Odds: Twins -194, White Sox +158 | Total: 9.0
Athletics (63-75) @ St. Louis Cardinals (68-70) – 2:15 PM ET
✅ Best Bet: Under 7.5 (-109)
🔹 Luis Morales (OAK): 2-0, 1.19 ERA — 22 K
🔹 Sonny Gray (STL): 12-7, 4.19 ERA — facing former team
🔍 Gray faces the club he once led, while Morales brings stellar early returns. With St. Louis starters ranking 2nd in walk rate (7%) and Oakland struggling against lefties, this points to a tight game.
💰 Odds: Cardinals -144, Athletics +118 | Total: 7.5
Atlanta Braves (62-75) @ Chicago Cubs (78-59) – 4:05 PM ET
✅ Best Bet: Over 7.5 (-108)
🔹 Spencer Strider (ATL): 5-12, 4.95 ERA — poor contact metrics
🔹 Colin Rea (CHC): 10-6, 4.23 ERA — allowed 6 ER last outing
🔍 Strider ranks in the 4th percentile in exit velocity allowed, and Rea has a 1.32 WHIP. With both lineups solid and Rea going Over in 5 of last 7, the total is in play.
💰 Odds: Cubs -122, Braves +101 | Total: 7.5
San Francisco Giants (68-69) @ Colorado Rockies (39-98) – 4:10 PM ET
🔥 Top Pick: Over 11.5 (-102)
🔹 Kai-Wei Teng (SF): 1-3, 8.78 ERA — 9 BB in 13.1 IP
🔹 Chase Dollander (COL): 2-11, 6.55 ERA — 9.88 ERA at Coors
🔍 Two bottom-tier starters at Coors is a recipe for offense. The Giants scored 12+ runs in 3 of their last 5 vs Colorado, and Rockies starters have MLB’s worst ERA (6.59) and K rate (15%).
💰 Odds: Giants -143, Rockies +118 | Total: 11.5
Philadelphia Phillies (79-58) @ Milwaukee Brewers (85-53) – 4:10 PM ET
✅ Best Bet: Over 9.0 (-103)
🔹 Taijuan Walker (PHI): 4-7, 3.63 ERA — 0-3, 6.75 ERA vs MIL
🔹 Jacob Misiorowski (MIL): 4-2, 4.33 ERA — 9.58 ERA in August
🔍 Walker has struggled against Milwaukee historically, and Misiorowski is coming off three rocky starts. Milwaukee has scored 4+ in 6 of 7 and went 21-9 in August.
💰 Odds: Brewers -158, Phillies +129 | Total: 9.0
Baltimore Orioles (61-76) @ San Diego Padres (76-61) – 6:40 PM ET
✅ Best Bet: Under 7.5 (-109)
🔹 Kyle Bradish (BAL): 0-1, 3.00 ERA — 10 K in 6 IP last start
🔹 Dylan Cease (SD): 6-11, 4.82 ERA — 3.86 ERA at Petco
🔍 Bradish looked sharp in his return, and Cease has held opponents to a .221 AVG at home. San Diego's bullpen leads MLB with a .213 opponent average.
💰 Odds: Padres -157, Orioles +129 | Total: 7.5
Seattle Mariners (73-64) @ Tampa Bay Rays (67-69) – 7:35 PM ET
✅ Best Bet: Over 8.5 (-120)
🔹 Luis Castillo (SEA): 8-7, 3.75 ERA — 5.04 road ERA
🔹 Shane Baz (TB): 8-11, 5.19 ERA — 7.06 home ERA
🔍 Castillo and Baz have been roughed up lately, and Seattle’s .699 slugging on first pitches (best in MLB) gives them a major edge if Baz misses spots early.
💰 Odds: Mariners -110, Rays -111 | Total: 8.5
Texas Rangers (71-67) @ Arizona Diamondbacks (68-70) – 8:10 PM ET
✅ Best Bet: Under 9.0 (-106)
🔹 Patrick Corbin (TEX): 7-9, 4.33 ERA — 0-4, 11.28 ERA vs ARI
🔹 Ryne Nelson (ARI): 7-3, 3.53 ERA — 1 ER in last outing
🔍 Despite the Rangers’ win streak, both pitchers have shown they can limit damage. Texas starters lead MLB in lowest OPS (.654) and OBP (.287) allowed.
💰 Odds: Diamondbacks -157, Rangers +128 | Total: 9.0
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