Today's MLB Rundown + Best Bets (8/9/25)

We deliver concise MLB previews with key takeaways for every matchup, so you’re informed without the hassle. Our AI-driven analysis simulates sports traders’ betting strategies to identify the best bets.

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Under 7.5 (-125) — Phillies at Rangers — 7:15 PM ET
deGrom’s been a fortress at Globe Life (6-2, 1.91 ERA at home), and Philly starters own a 2.88 road ERA. Luzardo’s road mark (3.36 ERA) helps keep this tight.

Under 9.0 (-109) — Mets at Brewers — 7:10 PM ET
Milwaukee’s won seven straight while New York’s offense slumped to a 79 wRC+ in August. With NYM’s bullpen at a 3.74 ERA (10th) and Myers steady since returning, this profiles as a 9-or-fewer run game.

Over 9.5 (-102) — Rockies at Diamondbacks — 8:10 PM ET
Colorado’s rotation carries a 6.49 ERA (worst in MLB) and a 6.06 staff ERA overall. Arizona mashes righties (.453 SLG, .782 OPS) — this sets up as runs in the desert.

Programming note: Miami at Atlanta is a doubleheader — Game 1 at 1:15 PM ET and Game 2 at 7:15 PM ET at Truist Park.

Miami Marlins (57-58, .496) @ Atlanta Braves (48-67, .417) — 1:15 PM ET — Game 1 of DH
✅ Best Bet: Over 8.5 (-105)
🔹 Ryan Gusto (MIA): 7-4, 4.92 ERA, 87 SO — underlying metrics sit bottom-third in xERA/EV/hard-hit.
🔹 Hurston Waldrep (ATL): 1-0, 1.59 ERA, 4 SO — 5.2 IP, 1 ER debut; 4.18 xERA hints at some give-back.
🔍 Miami’s 7-3 in its last 10 and bats .259 with two outs (best in NL), while both bullpens have struggled. With two volatile profiles, early traffic should translate to runs.
💰 Odds: Braves -106, Marlins -114 | Total: 8.5

Houston Astros (65-51, .560) @ New York Yankees (61-55, .526) — 2:05 PM ET
✅ Best Bet: Over 8.5 (-106)
🔹 Framber Valdez (HOU): 11-5, 2.83 ERA — rough last start; 6.50 ERA in 4 career vs NYY.
🔹 Luis Gil (NYY): 0-1, 13.50 ERA — 5 ER in 3.1 IP in season debut after lat strain.
🔍 Yankees have dropped 6 of 7 and their staff’s in-zone rate is MLB-low (48%), while Houston’s pitchers lead MLB with a 26% K rate. Both starters come in off poor outings and both clubs trend to the over recently.
💰 Odds: Astros -117, Yankees -104 | Total: 8.5

Washington Nationals (45-70, .391) @ San Francisco Giants (59-57, .509) — 4:05 PM ET
✅ Best Bet: Under 8.0 (-105)
🔹 Brad Lord (WSH): 2-6, 3.42 ERA — F5 under has hit in 7 straight starts.
🔹 Carson Whisenhunt (SF): 1-0, 4.35 ERA — third MLB start; faces a WSH lineup batting .233 vs LHP.
🔍 SF just snapped an 8-game home skid; WSH is 1-8 in its last nine. The 2025 series is 4-0 to the Under, and Oracle plays big — lean low scoring.
💰 Odds: Giants -164, Nationals +134 | Total: 8.0

Los Angeles Angels (55-61, .474) @ Detroit Tigers (67-50, .573) — 6:10 PM ET
✅ Best Bet: Over 8.5 (-116)
🔹 Yusei Kikuchi (LAA): 5-7, 3.22 ERA, 139 SO — draws a DET lineup hitting .261 vs LHP (5th-best in MLB).
🔹 Charlie Morton (DET): 7-9, 5.20 ERA, 107 SO — elevated ERA in a spot where DET’s offense is hot (.287 last 10).
🔍 Tigers are 6-4 with +14 run diff over their last 10; Angels’ recent road trend has hit the RL, but run prevention’s been spotty. Matchup and recent totals point over.
💰 Odds: Tigers -136, Angels +112 | Total: 8.5

Cincinnati Reds (60-57, .513) @ Pittsburgh Pirates (51-66, .436) — 6:40 PM ET
✅ Best Bet: Under 8.0 (-108)
🔹 Nick Martinez (CIN): 9-9, 4.66 ERA — 4.90 ERA and .294 BAA on the road.
🔹 Braxton Ashcraft (PIT): 3-2, 3.24 ERA — 2.45 ERA at PNC in four home starts.
🔍 PIT’s taken 4 straight in the matchup with CIN managing just 3 runs over those four. With both offenses inconsistent, 8 looks a touch high.
💰 Odds: Pirates -112, Reds -108 | Total: 8.0

Athletics (51-67, .432) @ Baltimore Orioles (53-63, .457) — 7:05 PM ET
✅ Best Bet: Under 9.5 (-121)
🔹 Jack Perkins (OAK): 0-2, 3.97 ERA — second career start; longest 2025 outing is 3 IP.
🔹 Brandon Young (BAL): 0-5, 5.88 ERA — O’s are 2-7 in his games; recent outings limited damage.
🔍 Baltimore’s offense has been uneven despite Mountcastle’s return; Oakland’s hitters jump early (MLB-high 14% one-pitch PAs). With opener-length risks for OAK, pen usage can still steer this under in Camden.
💰 Odds: Orioles -115, Athletics -105 | Total: 9.5

Kansas City Royals (57-59, .491) @ Minnesota Twins (55-60, .478) — 7:10 PM ET
✅ Best Bet: Royals ML (-115)
🔹 Noah Cameron (KC): 5-5, 2.68 ERA — 1.01 WHIP anchors a strong profile.
🔹 Bailey Ober (MIN): 4-6, 5.38 ERA — 1.41 WHIP, traffic has been an issue.
🔍 KC’s contact rate (19% K%, 2nd-best in MLB) plays vs a shaky staff, and Cameron’s been the steadier arm. Series is 4-4; slight edges point to the Royals on the road.
💰 Odds: Royals -115, Twins -106 | Total: 8.5

Cleveland Guardians (60-55, .522) @ Chicago White Sox (42-74, .362) — 7:10 PM ET
✅ Best Bet: Guardians ML (-131)
🔹 Joey Cantillo (CLE): 2-2, 4.37 ERA — 9 K last start; 1-0, 3.14 ERA in 3 career vs CHW.
🔹 Sean Burke (CHW): 4-8, 4.23 ERA — third-time-through has bitten him.
🔍 CLE’s won 4 straight and 8 of 9; CHW has dropped 5 straight and struggled 1-for-14 RISP in Friday’s 9-5 loss. With series dominance (11 of last 12 vs CHW) and the current form, Guardians are the side.
💰 Odds: Guardians -131, White Sox +107 | Total: 8.5

New York Mets (63-53, .543) @ Milwaukee Brewers (71-44, .617) — 7:10 PM ET
🔥 Top Pick: Under 9.0 (-109)
🔹 TBD (NYM): — Mets haven’t named a starter; bullpen carries a 3.74 ERA (10th).
🔹 Tobias Myers (MIL): 1-1, 4.30 ERA — 23 IP; three shutout frames across two outings since return.
🔍 MIL rides a 7-game win streak (15-4 since the break); NYM has lost 8 of 9 with 3 runs or fewer in 6 of their last 9. Given recent run suppression and solid pens, 9 is a fade.
💰 Odds: Brewers -126, Mets +104 | Total: 9.0

Chicago Cubs (66-49, .574) @ St. Louis Cardinals (59-58, .504) — 7:15 PM ET
✅ Best Bet: Under 9.0 (-115)
🔹 Colin Rea (CHC): 8-5, 4.23 ERA — 6.2 IP, 2 H vs STL on July 4.
🔹 Andre Pallante (STL): 6-8, 4.57 ERA — 7 shutout IP, 1 H vs MIA in last start.
🔍 Chicago’s bats have scuffled since the break and they’ve lost five straight night games vs the division. With at least one shutout in three straight meetings, under remains live.
💰 Odds: Cubs -112, Cardinals -108 | Total: 9.0

Philadelphia Phillies (66-49, .574) @ Texas Rangers (60-57, .513) — 7:15 PM ET
🔥 Top Pick: Under 7.5 (-125)
🔹 Jesús Luzardo (PHI): 10-5, 4.32 ERA — 3.36 ERA in 11 road starts.
🔹 Jacob deGrom (TEX): 10-4, 2.80 ERA — 0.94 WHIP; .198 BAA; 1.91 ERA at home.
🔍 Phillies took Game 1, but this matchup is all about elite run prevention: PHI starters lead MLB in road ERA (2.88), while TEX starters have allowed a .641 OPS (best in MLB).
💰 Odds: Rangers -137, Phillies +112 | Total: 7.5

Miami Marlins (57-58, .496) @ Atlanta Braves (48-67, .417) — 7:15 PM ET — Game 2 of DH
✅ Best Bet: Over 8.5 (-105)
🔹 Sandy Alcantara (MIA): 6-10, 6.44 ERA, 86 SO.
🔹 Erick Fedde (ATL): 3-12, 5.32 ERA, 66 SO.
🔍 With both starters carrying 5+ ERAs, the second leg sets up for offense. Same tight moneyline as Game 1; the safer angle is runs.
💰 Odds: Braves -106, Marlins -114 | Total: 8.5

Colorado Rockies (30-85, .261) @ Arizona Diamondbacks (55-61, .474) — 8:10 PM ET
🔥 Top Pick: Over 9.5 (-102)
🔹 Bradley Blalock (COL): 1-3, 7.68 ERA — 18 SO; Rockies 1-5 when he starts as an underdog.
🔹 Eduardo Rodriguez (ARI): 4-7, 5.53 ERA — 103 SO; ARI wins 36.4% of his favored starts.
🔍 COL owns the worst road OBP (.266) and the worst rotation ERA (6.49), while ARI ranks third in the NL in homers and crushes righties (.453 SLG). This points to crooked numbers.
💰 Odds: Diamondbacks -231, Rockies +186 | Total: 9.5

Boston Red Sox (65-52, .556) @ San Diego Padres (64-52, .552) — 8:40 PM ET
✅ Best Bet: Over 7.5 (-118)
🔹 Lucas Giolito (BOS): 8-2, 3.57 ERA — 81 SO in 95.2 IP.
🔹 Michael King (SD): 4-2, 2.59 ERA — 1.02 WHIP; limited pitch count building back up.
🔍 Boston’s won 10 of 12 and dropped a 10-spot Friday; King’s limited workload could expose SD’s middle innings. Despite Petco’s rep, form says runs.
💰 Odds: Padres -139, Red Sox +114 | Total: 7.5

Toronto Blue Jays (68-49, .581) @ Los Angeles Dodgers (67-49, .578) — 9:10 PM ET
✅ Best Bet: Under 8.5 (-110)
🔹 Chris Bassitt (TOR): 11-5, 4.12 ERA — 1 R, 1 H over 6 IP last start.
🔹 Blake Snell (LAD): 1-1, 3.21 ERA — 8 K in latest outing.
🔍 TOR has raked since the break, but both starters can throttle big innings, and LAD’s OPS sits 14th in that span. Dodger Stadium + frontline stuff → lean under.
💰 Odds: Dodgers -164, Blue Jays +134 | Total: 8.5

Tampa Bay Rays (57-60, .487) @ Seattle Mariners (64-53, .547) — 9:40 PM ET
✅ Best Bet: Under 8.0 (-115)
🔹 Joe Boyle (TB): 1-1, 2.30 ERA — 0.88 WHIP; coming off a shutout vs LAD.
🔹 Logan Evans (SEA): 5-4, 4.30 ERA — 3.03 ERA at home.
🔍 SEA’s on a 5-game heater, but both clubs feature top-10 bullpens and Friday’s opener landed 5 total runs. With Boyle shoving and Evans comfy at home, 8 looks generous.
💰 Odds: Mariners -141, Rays +116 | Total: 8.0

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