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🔥 Top Picks
Under 7.5 (-115): Angels @ Tigers — 7:10 PM ET
Skubal owns a 2.18 ERA and Detroit starters have allowed a .467 OPS with two strikes (3rd-best in MLB), while Angels hitters are batting .142 with two strikes (worst in MLB). Hendricks has a 2.28 career ERA vs. Detroit, and LAA’s last seven AL road games have gone Under.
Phillies ML (-137) @ Rangers — 8:05 PM ET
Cristopher Sánchez (10-3, 2.40) is off eight scoreless vs. Detroit, and Texas has the AL’s lowest OPS vs. lefties (.637) with a .351 SLG. Merrill Kelly is steady, but the matchup favors the southpaw.
Padres ML (-188) vs. Red Sox — 9:40 PM ET
Nick Pivetta has a 1.99 ERA and .173 opponent AVG at Petco. Walker Buehler has a 7.44 ERA and .328 opponent AVG on the road; San Diego has won nine of their last 11.
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⚾ Game Previews
Cincinnati Reds (60-56, .517) @ Pittsburgh Pirates (50-66, .431) — 6:40 PM (PNC Park)
✅ Best Bet: Under 7.5 (-109)
🔹 Chase Burns (CIN): 0-3, 6.04 ERA, 47 SO — 9.28 road ERA; lost each of his last five starts
🔹 Mitch Keller (PIT): 5-10, 3.89 ERA, 104 SO — has won his last four starts
🔍 Pirates have won 16 of the last 21 at PNC vs. CIN, holding the Reds under 3 runs per game in that span. Under has hit in 7 of the last 9 meetings.
💰 Odds: Reds -115, Pirates -106 | Total: 7.5 (O -112 / U -109)
Athletics (51-66, .436) @ Baltimore Orioles (52-63, .452) — 7:05 PM (Oriole Park at Camden Yards)
✅ Best Bet: Over 9.5 (-118)
🔹 J.T. Ginn (OAK): 2-3, 4.28 ERA, 49 SO
🔹 Tomoyuki Sugano (BAL): 8-5, 4.42 ERA, 76 SO
🔍 Baltimore’s offense has an .789 OPS at home, and both starters carry ERAs above 4.25. Athletics enter off a shutout win over the Nationals; these clubs split their last 10 meetings 5–5.
💰 Odds: Orioles -112, Athletics -108 | Total: 9.5 (O -118 / U -103)
Houston Astros (64-51, .557) @ New York Yankees (61-54, .530) — 7:05 PM (Yankee Stadium)
✅ Best Bet: Over 7.5 (-112)
🔹 Hunter Brown (HOU): 9-5, 2.47 ERA, 155 SO — 2.56 ERA in 70.1 road IP
🔹 Cam Schlittler (NYY): 1-2, 4.58 ERA, 21 SO — 5.59 home ERA; 5 HR allowed in 4 starts
🔍 Astros carry a .734 road OPS; Yankees are clinging to the final wild-card spot by 1.5 games. The matchup projects offense with Schlittler’s home splits.
💰 Odds: Astros -110, Yankees -111 | Total: 7.5 (O -112 / U -108)
Los Angeles Angels (55-60, .478) @ Detroit Tigers (66-50, .569) — 7:10 PM (Comerica Park)
🔥 Top Pick: Under 7.5 (-115)
🔹 Kyle Hendricks (LAA): 6-8, 4.59 ERA, 72 SO — 2.28 career ERA vs. DET
🔹 Tarik Skubal (DET): 11-3, 2.18 ERA, 181 SO — 2nd among qualified in ERA
🔍 Angels hitters are batting .142 with two strikes (lowest in MLB); Tigers starters allow a .467 OPS with two strikes (3rd-best). Each of the Angels’ last seven AL road games has gone Under.
💰 Odds: Tigers -360, Angels +278 | Total: 7.5 (O -101 / U -120)
Miami Marlins (56-58, .491) @ Atlanta Braves (48-66, .421) — 7:15 PM (Truist Park)
✅ Best Bet: Under 8.0 (-105)
🔹 Edward Cabrera (MIA): 5-5, 3.24 ERA, 103 SO — 1 ER in each of his last three starts
🔹 Bryce Elder (ATL): 4-8, 6.03 ERA, 78 SO — recently shelled for eight runs
🔍 Braves have lost 5 of their last 6 at home and are averaging 4.3 runs per game. Tight total with Cabrera’s form points Under.
💰 Odds: Marlins -131, Braves +108 | Total: 8.0 (O -115 / U -105)
Cleveland Guardians (59-55, .518) @ Chicago White Sox (42-73, .365) — 7:40 PM (Guaranteed Rate Field)
✅ Best Bet: Under 8.5 (-116)
🔹 Tanner Bibee (CLE): 7-9, 4.51 ERA, 112 SO — projections say he’s been somewhat unlucky
🔹 Aaron Civale (CWS): 3-6, 3.99 ERA, 56 SO — 4.84 xFIP suggests some good fortune
🔍 Both offenses rank near the bottom (Guardians 28th, White Sox 29th). Cleveland’s won 7 of 10; market leans to a lower total.
💰 Odds: Guardians -145, White Sox +119 | Total: 8.5 (O -105 / U -116)
Philadelphia Phillies (65-49, .570) @ Texas Rangers (60-56, .517) — 8:05 PM (Globe Life Field)
🔥 Top Pick: Phillies ML (-137)
🔹 Cristopher Sánchez (PHI): 10-3, 2.40 ERA, 145 SO — eight scoreless IP last start
🔹 Merrill Kelly (TEX): 9-6, 3.22 ERA, 127 SO — projects for ~2.5 ER allowed
🔍 Rangers have an AL-low .637 OPS and .351 SLG vs. lefties. Texas is 4–6 in its last 10.
💰 Odds: Phillies -137, Rangers +113 | Total: 7.5 (O -102 / U -119)
Kansas City Royals (57-58, .496) @ Minnesota Twins (54-60, .474) — 8:10 PM (Target Field)
✅ Best Bet: Under 8.5 (-114)
🔹 Seth Lugo (KC): 8-5, 3.06 ERA, 107 SO — allowed 2 ER in 4⅔ IP last start
🔹 Joe Ryan (MIN): 10-5, 2.83 ERA, 141 SO — 5.64 K/BB; 3.56 xFIP
🔍 KC has stayed under its team total in 69 of 109 and both teams have shown recent offensive inconsistency.
💰 Odds: Twins -137, Royals +112 | Total: 8.5 (O -107 / U -114)
New York Mets (63-52, .548) @ Milwaukee Brewers (70-44, .614) — 8:10 PM (American Family Field)
✅ Best Bet: Over 7.5 (-118)
🔹 Kodai Senga (NYM): 7-3, 2.31 ERA — 68 H in 89.2 IP
🔹 Brandon Woodruff (MIL): 3-0, 2.22 ERA — 6 IP and ≤2 ER in each of last five
🔍 Brewers have won six straight; Mets have lost four straight. Preview leans Over given both teams’ offensive potential.
💰 Odds: Brewers -141, Mets +115 | Total: 7.5 (O -118 / U -102)
Chicago Cubs (66-48, .579) @ St. Louis Cardinals (58-58, .500) — 8:15 PM (Busch Stadium)
✅ Best Bet: Under 8.5 (-119)
🔹 Matthew Boyd (CHC): 11-4, 2.34 ERA, 118 SO — 7 shutout innings vs. BAL last start
🔹 Michael McGreevy (STL): 3-2, 5.08 ERA, 23 SO — two wins in last three decisions
🔍 Cubs slug .459 on the road (best in MLB); Cards’ SLG is .388 (5th-lowest in NL) and rank 24th in HR. Rivalry tends to stay in check with Boyd’s form.
💰 Odds: Cubs -156, Cardinals +128 | Total: 8.5 (O -102 / U -119)
Colorado Rockies (30-84, .263) @ Arizona Diamondbacks (54-61, .470) — 9:40 PM (Chase Field)
✅ Best Bet: Over 9.0 (-111)
🔹 Austin Gomber (COL): 0-5, 6.18 ERA, 27 SO — allowed 4 ER over 5 IP vs. PIT last start
🔹 Zac Gallen (ARI): 8-12, 5.48 ERA, 124 SO — 8-1 career vs. COL with sub-4.00 ERA
🔍 Rockies enter on a four-game skid after being outscored 45–6 in a three-game sweep by Toronto. Both pitchers have 2025 vulnerability; preview leans Over 9.0.
💰 Odds: Diamondbacks -248, Rockies +198 | Total: 9.0 (O -111 / U -110)
Boston Red Sox (64-52, .552) @ San Diego Padres (64-51, .557) — 9:40 PM (Petco Park)
🔥 Top Pick: Padres ML (-188)
🔹 Walker Buehler (BOS): 6-6, 5.74 ERA, 71 SO — 7.44 road ERA; .328 opponent AVG on the road
🔹 Nick Pivetta (SD): 11-3, 2.73 ERA, 136 SO — 1.99 ERA; .173 opponent AVG at home
🔍 San Diego has won nine of eleven. Pivetta’s home splits vs. Buehler’s road splits give SD a clear edge.
💰 Odds: Padres -188, Red Sox +153 | Total: 8.0 (O -108 / U -113)
Tampa Bay Rays (57-59, .491) @ Seattle Mariners (63-53, .543) — 9:40 PM (T-Mobile Park)
✅ Best Bet: Under 7.5 (-115)
🔹 Drew Rasmussen (TB): 9-5, 2.81 ERA, 93 SO — 105.2 IP
🔹 Luis Castillo (SEA): 8-6, 3.22 ERA, 115 SO — 2.05 ERA in July
🔍 Seattle’s on a four-game winning streak, averaging 6.25 runs in that span, but both starters’ ERAs support a lower total.
💰 Odds: Mariners -132, Rays +108 | Total: 7.5 (O -106 / U -115)
Toronto Blue Jays (68-48, .586) @ Los Angeles Dodgers (66-49, .574) — 10:10 PM (Dodger Stadium)
✅ Best Bet: Over 9.0 (-102)
🔹 Max Scherzer (TOR): 2-1, 4.39 ERA, 44 SO — making just his third start of the season
🔹 Clayton Kershaw (LAD): 5-2, 3.29 ERA, 42 SO — threw six solid innings in his last outing
🔍 Toronto just swept Colorado, scoring 45 runs in three games. Preview leans Over 9.0 given Toronto’s recent offense.
💰 Odds: Dodgers -143, Blue Jays +118 | Total: 9.0 (O -102 / U -119)
Washington Nationals (45-69, .395) @ San Francisco Giants (58-57, .504) — 10:15 PM (Oracle Park)
✅ Best Bet: Over 8.5 (-105)
🔹 Jake Irvin (WSH): 8-6, 4.89 ERA, 88 SO — allowed 5 ER and 8 H in 4 IP last start
🔹 Kai-Wei Teng (SF): making his second start — 13.50 ERA; allowed 5 ER in 3⅓ IP vs. Mets previously
🔍 Nationals pitchers have a 7.88 ERA over their last 10; opponents are scoring 5.56 runs per game with 20 HR allowed in that span. Giants’ bullpen has a .653 OPS allowed (3rd-best), but matchup still leans Over.
💰 Odds: Giants -164, Nationals +135 | Total: 8.5 (O -105 / U -116)
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