Today's MLB Rundown + Best Bets (8/6/25)

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Giants ML (-149) vs Pirates – 12:35 PM ET
Robbie Ray’s 2.85 ERA anchors a San Francisco club hitting a 109 wRC+ since the break. Andrew Heaney’s 9.00 ERA over his last five starts gives the Giants a clear edge.

Guardians/Mets Under 7.5 (-106) – 1:10 PM ET
Both starters are rolling—Gavin Williams has three straight quality starts, and David Peterson owns a 2.83 ERA with five straight quality outings. Expect a tight, low-scoring finale.

Brewers ML (+109) vs Braves – 7:15 PM ET
Jose Quintana’s 2.49 road ERA and Milwaukee’s five-game win streak set up well against a struggling Braves team that’s lost 12 of 16. The Brewers’ bats have been pounding lefties, making them live dogs here.

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🔥 Top Pick: Giants ML (-149)
🔹 Robbie Ray (SF): 9-5, 2.85 ERA, 140 SO – 2.89 ERA over his last seven starts
🔹 Andrew Heaney (PIT): 5-9, 4.89 ERA, 79 SO – 9.00 ERA over last five outings
🔍 San Francisco’s offense is clicking since the break, while Pittsburgh ranks 29th in wRC+ vs lefties. Heaney’s struggles make this a prime spot for the Giants to grab the series.
💰 Odds: Giants -149, Pirates +123 | Total: 8.0

✅ Best Bet: Over 8.0 (-114)
🔹 Trevor Rogers (BAL): 4-2, 1.44 ERA, 48 SO – 1.13 ERA in his last outing
🔹 Ranger Suárez (PHI): 8-4, 2.68 ERA, 95 SO – reliable in 2025
🔍 Phillies’ bats are hot with Schwarber driving in eight RBIs in his last five games. Baltimore’s .223 road average is the worst in the AL, but Philly’s offense could push this total over.
💰 Odds: Phillies -179, Orioles +146 | Total: 8.0

🔥 Top Pick: Under 7.5 (-106)
🔹 Gavin Williams (CLE): 6-4, 3.33 ERA, 117 SO – three straight quality starts
🔹 David Peterson (NYM): 7-4, 2.83 ERA, 105 SO – five straight quality starts
🔍 Cleveland’s offense is struggling vs righties (.184 average), and Peterson has been lights out. A pitchers’ duel is in play at Citi Field.
💰 Odds: Mets -170, Guardians +139 | Total: 7.5

✅ Best Bet: Over 7.5 (-110)
🔹 TBD (MIN): no starter named
🔹 Jack Flaherty (DET): 6-10, 4.36 ERA, 144 SO – 19 HR allowed this season
🔍 Detroit’s offense is surging (.278 last 10), while Minnesota’s rotation instability and 5.93 ERA over their last 10 suggest runs. Expect offense to take control.
💰 Odds: Tigers -144, Twins +118 | Total: 7.5

✅ Best Bet: Under 7.5 (-109)
🔹 Andrew Abbott (CIN): 8-1, 2.15 ERA – 2.30 ERA career vs Cubs
🔹 Cade Horton (CHC): 5-3, 3.42 ERA – 1.85 ERA at home
🔍 Both starters are dealing, with Horton on a 17.2-inning scoreless streak. Runs should be scarce at Wrigley.
💰 Odds: Cubs -137, Reds +113 | Total: 7.5

✅ Best Bet: Over 8.0 (-119)
🔹 Carlos Rodón (NYY): 11-7, 3.34 ERA – recent control issues with 10 BB in last three starts
🔹 Jack Leiter (TEX): 7-6, 4.10 ERA – four straight outings with 3+ walks
🔍 With both pitchers struggling to limit walks, a 5-4 type game is on the table. Rangers’ poor OPS vs lefties could be mitigated by Rodón’s control woes.
💰 Odds: Yankees -136, Rangers +111 | Total: 8.0

✅ Best Bet: Over 11.5 (-102)
🔹 Kevin Gausman (TOR): 7-8, 3.99 ERA – seeking 11th quality start
🔹 Kyle Freeland (COL): 2-11, 5.26 ERA – nine quality starts but shaky overall
🔍 Toronto’s bats have piled up 25 runs in two games at Coors, and Colorado’s staff can’t slow them down. Expect another slugfest.
💰 Odds: Blue Jays -225, Rockies +181 | Total: 11.5

✅ Best Bet: Over 9.0 (-101)
🔹 Shane Baz (TB): 8-8, 4.79 ERA – 6.49 ERA in last five starts
🔹 Tyler Anderson (LAA): 2-7, 4.49 ERA – 5.74 ERA over last five
🔍 Both starters have been getting hit, and the Rays’ road struggles meet an Angels lineup that’s been steady at home. Offense should win out.
💰 Odds: Rays -119, Angels -102 | Total: 9.0

✅ Best Bet: Under 9.0 (+100)
🔹 Matthew Liberatore (STL): 6-9, 3.96 ERA – 1.28 WHIP this season
🔹 Shohei Ohtani (LAD): 0-0, 2.40 ERA – limited workload expected
🔍 Ohtani’s short outing and St. Louis’ contact-heavy approach point to a lower-scoring game. The Under has cashed in three of five meetings.
💰 Odds: Dodgers -220, Cardinals +178 | Total: 9.0

✅ Best Bet: Under 8.0 (-102)
🔹 Spencer Arrighetti (HOU): 1-1, 5.59 ERA – opponents hitting .121 against him
🔹 Janson Junk (MIA): 5-2, 3.86 ERA – six straight outings of 5+ innings
🔍 Houston’s bullpen dominance (MLB-best .214 opponent avg) could suppress Miami’s bats. Expect a lower total in Miami.
💰 Odds: Astros -113, Marlins -107 | Total: 8.0

✅ Best Bet: Over 9.0 (-110)
🔹 Jeffrey Springs (OAK): 10-7, 4.00 ERA – solid vs weak lineups
🔹 Cade Cavalli (WSH): MLB stats unavailable – called up from Triple-A
🔍 Washington’s bullpen (5.90 ERA) is the worst in MLB, and Oakland’s Nick Kurtz is on a tear. Runs should flow.
💰 Odds: Athletics -131, Nationals +108 | Total: 9.0

✅ Best Bet: Over 8.5 (-112)
🔹 Michael Wacha (KC): 5-9, 3.38 ERA – 10 quality starts this year
🔹 Dustin May (BOS): 6-7, 4.85 ERA – 3.00 ERA at home
🔍 Boston has won 14 straight at Fenway after a game day, and their bats are heating up. Wacha’s solid ERA meets May’s home splits, but the Over is in play.
💰 Odds: Red Sox -144, Royals +119 | Total: 8.5

🔥 Top Pick: Brewers ML (+109)
🔹 Jose Quintana (MIL): 8-4, 3.50 ERA – 2.49 road ERA
🔹 Spencer Strider (ATL): 5-8, 3.71 ERA – inconsistent in 2025
🔍 Milwaukee’s bats have been crushing, scoring 7+ in four of five. Against a cold Braves squad, Quintana gives them the edge.
💰 Odds: Braves -133, Brewers +109 | Total: 8.0

✅ Best Bet: Over 9.5 (-102)
🔹 Nestor Cortes (SD): 1-1, 9.00 ERA – making debut after long layoff
🔹 Anthony DeSclafani (ARI): 1-2, 4.91 ERA – roughed up last start
🔍 Both pitchers carry uncertainty, and Arizona’s bullpen (5.46 ERA in close spots) can’t be trusted. Expect offense to lead the way.
💰 Odds: Padres -139, Diamondbacks +114 | Total: 9.5

✅ Best Bet: Over 7.5 (-109)
🔹 Jonathan Cannon (CWS): 4-8, 4.77 ERA – 11 ER in last two starts
🔹 George Kirby (SEA): 6-5, 4.13 ERA – 2.61 ERA in last seven starts
🔍 Seattle’s offense erupted for eight runs in the opener, and Chicago’s pitching can’t slow them down. Cal Raleigh’s power keeps the Over alive.
💰 Odds: Mariners -267, White Sox +213 | Total: 7.5

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