Today's MLB Rundown + Best Bets (8/5/25)

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Brewers -1.5 (+120) @ Braves – 7:15 PM ET
Freddy Peralta hasn’t lost since June 3 and now faces Atlanta’s Joey Wentz, who owns a 5.02 ERA. Milwaukee has won 12 of 16 and covered the run line in six of their last seven.

Phillies/Orioles Over 10.0 (-102) – 6:45 PM ET
Dean Kremer’s 5.00+ road ERA meets a red-hot Phillies offense that crushed Baltimore 13-3 Monday. Citizens Bank Park and both lineups’ power make this total attractive.

Giants/Pirates Under 7.5 (-120) – 6:40 PM ET
Logan Webb has allowed three or fewer earned runs in 19 of his 23 starts, while Mike Burrows has held opponents to two or fewer in three straight. Solid starting pitching sets up a low-scoring game.

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🔥 Top Pick: Under 7.5 (-120)
🔹 Logan Webb (SF): 9-8, 3.31 ERA, 155 SO — consistent ground-ball ace
🔹 Mike Burrows (PIT): 1-3, 3.88 ERA, 60 SO — three straight strong outings
🔍 Pittsburgh has won seven of their last 10 and is 4-0 against SF this year. With two steady starters on the hill, expect limited scoring.
💰 Odds: Giants -137, Pirates +113 | Total: 7.5

✅ Best Bet: Over 8.5 (-107)
🔹 Zebby Matthews (MIN): 2-3, 5.67 ERA, 42 SO — high ERA despite strong peripherals
🔹 Chris Paddack (DET): 4-9, 4.77 ERA, 88 SO — faces ex-team after strong debut with Detroit
🔍 Detroit has won six of its last eight, and Kerry Carpenter’s four-game home HR streak adds offensive upside. Minnesota’s retooled roster gets a tough test.
💰 Odds: Tigers -148, Twins +122 | Total: 8.5

✅ Best Bet: Over 8.5 (-110)
🔹 Steven Okert (HOU): 1-2, 2.90 ERA — opener before bullpen game
🔹 Cal Quantrill (MIA): 4-8, 4.79 ERA, 77 SO — four runs or more allowed in 4 of last 7
🔍 Houston’s bullpen leads MLB in K rate, but loanDepot Park has ranked second in run scoring. With Quantrill’s struggles, runs should come.
💰 Odds: Astros -110, Marlins -110 | Total: 8.5

✅ Best Bet: Over 8.5 (-109)
🔹 Luis Severino (OAK): 5-11, 4.83 ERA, 98 SO — inconsistent veteran
🔹 MacKenzie Gore (WSH): 4-11, 3.80 ERA, 148 SO — strikeout leader on a losing team
🔍 Washington’s bullpen has MLB’s worst ERA (5.81), making late runs likely. Both teams are out of contention but capable of scoring.
💰 Odds: Nationals -136, Athletics +112 | Total: 8.5

🔥 Top Pick: Over 10.0 (-102)
🔹 Dean Kremer (BAL): 8-7, 4.27 ERA, 104 SO — 5.00+ road ERA
🔹 Taijuan Walker (PHI): 3-5, 3.82 ERA, 56 SO — 2.22 ERA in last five vs. BAL
🔍 Philadelphia’s lefty bats have a big edge against Kremer’s road splits, and Monday’s 13-run outburst showed their power. Another high-scoring game is on the table.
💰 Odds: Phillies -143, Orioles +118 | Total: 10.0

✅ Best Bet: Under 8.0 (-119)
🔹 Ryan Bergert (KC): 1-0, 2.78 ERA — rookie making KC debut
🔹 Garrett Crochet (BOS): 12-4, 2.23 ERA, 175 SO — 1.62 ERA vs. KC in career
🔍 Boston has won six straight and 13 of 14 at home. Strong starting pitching and a sharp Under system point toward a low total.
💰 Odds: Red Sox -250, Royals +200 | Total: 8.0

✅ Best Bet: Over 8.5 (-115)
🔹 Logan Allen (CLE): 7-9, 4.06 ERA — allows hits in bunches
🔹 Clay Holmes (NYM): 9-6, 3.45 ERA — 4 ER in last start
🔍 Cleveland owns MLB’s worst OPS vs. righties (.550), but New York leads with a 47% hard-hit rate against them. The Over fits with both teams’ recent scoring trends.
💰 Odds: Mets -164, Guardians +134 | Total: 8.5

🔥 Top Pick: Brewers -1.5 (+120)
🔹 Freddy Peralta (MIL): 12-5, 3.08 ERA — ace looking to rebound
🔹 Joey Wentz (ATL): 2-2, 5.02 ERA — minimal experience vs. MIL
🔍 Milwaukee’s 12-4 post-break run meets an Atlanta club that’s lost 9 of 12. The Brewers have been covering spreads at a high rate.
💰 Odds: Brewers -150, Braves +123 | Total: 8.0

✅ Best Bet: Under 7.5 (-111)
🔹 Zack Littell (CIN): 8-8, 3.58 ERA — hasn’t won since July 9
🔹 Shota Imanaga (CHC): 8-4, 3.25 ERA — three wins in last four starts
🔍 The Under has hit in 3 of the last 4 between these clubs, and CIN’s .221 average vs. lefties makes runs hard to come by.
💰 Odds: Cubs -187, Reds +152 | Total: 7.5

✅ Best Bet: Over 8.5 (-102)
🔹 Will Warren (NYY): 6-5, 4.64 ERA — inconsistent, struggles to go deep
🔹 Nathan Eovaldi (TEX): 9-3, 1.49 ERA — dominant July (0.59 ERA)
🔍 Judge returns as NYY tries to end a four-game skid. Monday’s 8-5 Texas win suggests this total could climb again.
💰 Odds: Rangers -129, Yankees +106 | Total: 8.5

✅ Best Bet: Over 12.0 (-104)
🔹 José Berríos (TOR): 7-4, 3.84 ERA — dominant vs. COL historically
🔹 Anthony Molina (COL): 0-0, 7.27 ERA — limited experience, high ERA
🔍 Toronto’s bats erupted for 15 runs Monday, and Coors Field plus Colorado’s bullpen struggles make another high total realistic.
💰 Odds: Blue Jays -245, Rockies +196 | Total: 12.0

✅ Best Bet: Under 8.0 (-101)
🔹 Ryan Pepiot (TB): 6-9, 3.80 ERA — 5.46 ERA in last five starts
🔹 José Soriano (LAA): 7-8, 3.65 ERA — dominated TB earlier this year
🔍 Both teams trend Under (LAA 10 of 11 vs. AL East, TB 4 straight as dogs). Expect a close, low-scoring matchup.
💰 Odds: Angels -126, Rays +104 | Total: 8.0

✅ Best Bet: Under 9.0 (-120)
🔹 Yu Darvish (SD): 1-3, 6.46 ERA — 11.88 road ERA this year
🔹 Ryne Nelson (ARI): 6-3, 3.20 ERA — 2.09 home ERA, shutout SD earlier
🔍 Arizona’s .787 OPS vs. righties is strong, but five straight ARI games vs. NL opponents have gone Under. Nelson’s home form supports a low total.
💰 Odds: Padres -132, Diamondbacks +108 | Total: 9.0

✅ Best Bet: Under 7.5 (-119)
🔹 Davis Martin (CHW): 3-8, 3.84 ERA — keeps games close but lacks support
🔹 Bryan Woo (SEA): 8-6, 3.11 ERA — excellent WHIP (0.96)
🔍 Seattle’s home staff has a 3.13 ERA over its last 10, and CHW’s .230 average (2nd-worst MLB) limits scoring.
💰 Odds: Mariners -251, White Sox +201 | Total: 7.5

✅ Best Bet: Under 9.0 (-108)
🔹 Miles Mikolas (STL): 6-8, 4.83 ERA — control-focused arm
🔹 Emmet Sheehan (LAD): 2-2, 3.60 ERA — 9.4 K/9, .228 opponent AVG
🔍 The Under has hit in 10 of LAD’s last 11, and both staffs have been in form (LAD 2.62 ERA last 10, STL 3.48). Expect another tight one.
💰 Odds: Dodgers -187, Cardinals +152 | Total: 9.0

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