Today's MLB Rundown + Best Bets (8/4/25)

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Brewers -1.5 (+105) @ Braves – 7:15 PM ET
Quinn Priester (10-2, 3.27 ERA) has been Milwaukee’s rock, while Erick Fedde (3-11, 5.33 ERA) continues to unravel. The Brewers’ MLB-best 5.80 runs per game on the road and Atlanta’s 6-21 record as underdogs make this a prime spot.

Mets/Guardians Under 8.0 (-102) – 7:10 PM ET
Sean Manaea (2.08 ERA) hasn’t allowed more than one earned run in any start, and Cleveland hits a league-worst .184 against righties. This sets up a tight, low-scoring duel.

Padres/Diamondbacks Over 9.5 (+100) – 9:40 PM ET
Brandon Pfaadt (5.11 ERA) has allowed 6+ runs four times, and JP Sears debuts for San Diego with a 4.95 ERA. Combine shaky arms with Arizona’s league-best .455 SLG vs righties, and runs should flow.

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✅ Best Bet: Under 8.5 (-110)
🔹 Justin Verlander (SF): 1-8, 4.53 ERA, 77 SO — one ER over five IP in last start vs PIT
🔹 Johan Oviedo (PIT): 2025 debut — returning from elbow injury, on pitch count
🔍 Pirates are 7-3 in their last ten and swept SF in July. Verlander’s control issues (34 BB) and a limited Oviedo hint at bullpen-heavy action.
💰 Odds: Giants -125, Pirates +103 | Total: 8.5

✅ Best Bet: Over 8.5 (-108)
🔹 Twins SP: Simeon Woods Richardson (road struggles: 5.30 ERA)
🔹 Casey Mize (DET): 9-4, 3.43 ERA — 3.32 ERA at home
🔍 Detroit’s won four straight at Comerica; Minnesota’s allowed 5.40 ERA over last 10. Seven of Twins’ last eight games cleared 9 runs, fueling the Over.
💰 Odds: Tigers -169, Twins +138 | Total: 8.5

✅ Best Bet: Marlins ML (-130)
🔹 Jason Alexander (HOU): 1-1, 7.36 ERA — inconsistent in rotation
🔹 Sandy Alcantara (MIA): 6-9, 6.36 ERA — 12 scoreless innings over last two
🔍 Miami rides a five-game streak, fresh off sweeping NYY. With Alcantara showing flashes of his Cy Young form, the Marlins hold the edge.
💰 Odds: Marlins -130, Astros +107 | Total: 8.5

✅ Best Bet: Over 9.0 (-101)
🔹 Cade Povich (BAL): 2-5, 5.15 ERA — vulnerable to righties (.464 SLG)
🔹 Jesús Luzardo (PHI): 9-5, 4.31 ERA, 140 SO — lefties hitting just .200
🔍 Schwarber (38 HR) punishes lefties, and both teams have been scoring in bunches lately. Expect fireworks in Philly.
💰 Odds: Phillies -206, Orioles +167 | Total: 9.0

✅ Best Bet: Over 9.5 (-108)
🔹 Bailey Falter (KC): 7-5, 3.73 ERA — 7.94 ERA lifetime vs BOS
🔹 Brayan Bello (BOS): 7-5, 3.19 ERA — strong Fenway form
🔍 Boston’s won seven of eight and is 12-1 in last 13 at home. Falter’s history against them suggests early runs.
💰 Odds: Red Sox -164, Royals +134 | Total: 9.5

🔥 Top Pick: Under 8.0 (-102)
🔹 Slade Cecconi (CLE): 5-4, 3.77 ERA — inconsistent, struggles vs hard contact
🔹 Sean Manaea (NYM): 1-1, 2.08 ERA — no more than 1 ER allowed all season
🔍 Guardians hit an MLB-worst .184 in righty-righty matchups. With Manaea dealing and CLE’s offense sputtering, this sets up a pitchers’ game.
💰 Odds: Mets -187, Guardians +152 | Total: 8.0

🔥 Top Pick: Brewers -1.5 (+105)
🔹 Quinn Priester (MIL): 10-2, 3.27 ERA — team’s ace, strong vs ATL in June
🔹 Erick Fedde (ATL): 3-11, 5.33 ERA — poor debut with Atlanta
🔍 Brewers lead MLB in road scoring (5.80 RPG) and have won six of seven. Atlanta’s injury-riddled rotation gives Milwaukee a big edge.
💰 Odds: Brewers -150, Braves +123 | Total: 8.0

✅ Best Bet: Over 7.0 (-125)
🔹 Nick Lodolo (CIN): 8-6, 3.09 ERA — four straight with ≤2 ER
🔹 Michael Soroka (CHC): 3-8, 4.87 ERA — underlying metrics better than ERA
🔍 Cubs lead MLB in runs (5.2 RPG) and have gone Over in six straight vs NL Central foes. Lodolo’s sharp, but both offenses can strike.
💰 Odds: Cubs -143, Reds +118 | Total: 7.0

✅ Best Bet: Under 7.5 (-108)
🔹 Max Fried (NYY): 12-4, 2.62 ERA — 16 of 22 starts with ≤2 ER
🔹 Patrick Corbin (TEX): 6-7, 3.78 ERA — steady, but allows traffic
🔍 Texas bats just .220 vs lefties, worst in AL. With Fried in control and Corbin keeping it close, runs should be scarce.
💰 Odds: Yankees -145, Rangers +119 | Total: 7.5

✅ Best Bet: Over 12.0 (-103)
🔹 Eric Lauer (TOR): 6-2, 2.68 ERA — but 0-6, 12.73 ERA at Coors
🔹 Tanner Gordon (COL): 2-3, 4.85 ERA — coming off 7 ER in 3 IP
🔍 Coors + Lauer’s ugly history there + Gordon’s struggles = high-scoring. Jays hit .264 (best in MLB) and Rockies allow a league-worst .296 average.
💰 Odds: Blue Jays -208, Rockies +168 | Total: 12.0

✅ Best Bet: Under 8.5 (-115)
🔹 Adrian Houser (TB): 6-2, 2.10 ERA — reliable, 1.22 WHIP
🔹 Yusei Kikuchi (LAA): 4-7, 3.30 ERA — 132 SO, high K upside
🔍 Angels hit .199 over last 10 and strike out 26% of the time. With Houser dealing, runs may be tough to find.
💰 Odds: Angels -126, Rays +104 | Total: 8.5

🔥 Top Pick: Over 9.5 (+100)
🔹 JP Sears (SD): 7-9, 4.95 ERA — debut for Padres
🔹 Brandon Pfaadt (ARI): 10-7, 5.11 ERA — 7 ER in last start
🔍 Padres are hot (7 of 8) and D-backs slug .455 vs righties. With both starters shaky, expect runs early and often.
💰 Odds: Padres -138, Diamondbacks +114 | Total: 9.5

✅ Best Bet: Under 8.0 (-112)
🔹 Sonny Gray (STL): 10-5, 4.38 ERA — 8.44 ERA over last five
🔹 Tyler Glasnow (LAD): 1-1, 3.38 ERA — 49 SO in 40 IP
🔍 Dodgers have gone Under in nine of ten; Cards’ bats (.320 OPS vs RHP) struggle vs righties. Pitching edge to Glasnow at home.
💰 Odds: Dodgers -194, Cardinals +157 | Total: 8.0

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