Picks & Previews for Today's 8 MLB Games (8/28)

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Red Sox -1.5 (-115) @ Orioles – 1:05 PM ET
Garrett Crochet has owned Baltimore (1.13 ERA in four career starts) and faces Cade Povich, who’s surrendered four runs in 9+ innings vs Boston this year. With the O’s bullpen ranking bottom-5 in ERA and Boston leading the AL in OBP vs starters third time through, this is a sharp run line edge.

Brewers/Dbacks Under 9.0 (-113) – 2:10 PM ET
Nabil Crismatt (1.00 ERA) and Jose Quintana (3.32 ERA) both bring form, and Arizona has struggled late in games with the league’s worst bullpen xFIP since the deadline. With a steam angle backing the Under and both teams leaning on contact bats, this shapes up as a low-scoring grind.

Cubs/Giants Under 7.5 (-124) – 3:45 PM ET
Shota Imanaga (2.33 ERA in August) faces Logan Webb (2.60 home ERA last 3 years) at one of MLB’s toughest parks to hit. Add in the Cubs' MLB-worst .222 average vs pitchers third time through, and this looks like a tight duel.

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🔥 Top Pick: Red Sox -1.5 (-115)
🔹 Garrett Crochet (BOS): 14-5, 2.38 ERA, 207 SO — 1.13 ERA vs BAL in 4 career starts
🔹 Cade Povich (BAL): 2-7, 5.13 ERA, 95 SO — 5.57 xERA, bottom 5% in barrel rate allowed
🔍 Boston has won 4 of 5 in the series and ranks top 7 in runs, SLG, and OPS. With Crochet dealing and Baltimore's bullpen holding a league-worst OPS when behind in counts, Boston should control this wire to wire.
💰 Odds: Red Sox -206, Orioles +167 | Total: 8.0

✅ Best Bet: Under 8.5 (-106)
🔹 Kyle Freeland (COL): 3-13, 5.31 ERA, 91 SO — 5 ER in 5 IP last start
🔹 Jason Alexander (HOU): 4-1, 4.59 ERA, 38 SO — 1.93 ERA last 5 starts
🔍 Colorado’s scored just 1.4 runs/game over their last five, and Houston has a 5-0 run from Alexander. With the Rockies owning MLB’s worst ERA (5.99) and lowest win rate (29%), this feels like a quiet mismatch.
💰 Odds: Astros -250, Rockies +200 | Total: 8.5

🔥 Top Pick: Under 9.0 (-113)
🔹 Nabil Crismatt (ARI): 1-0, 1.00 ERA, 9 SO — 1 ER in 9 IP since joining team
🔹 Jose Quintana (MIL): 10-4, 3.32 ERA, 75 SO — but 5.02 xERA, benefiting from .254 BABIP
🔍 Arizona hits lefties hard (129 wRC+ since deadline) but has the league’s worst bullpen by xFIP and K-BB%. Milwaukee’s quietly won 13 of 20 vs sub-.500 teams at home. Both starters should keep this one in check early.
💰 Odds: Brewers -163, Dbacks +133 | Total: 9.0

✅ Best Bet: Under 8.0 (-107)
🔹 Braxton Ashcraft (PIT): 4-2, 2.70 ERA, 43 SO — 2 ER in 13.1 IP as starter
🔹 Miles Mikolas (STL): 6-10, 5.17 ERA, 81 SO — 6.43 ERA last 5 starts
🔍 The Pirates have taken 6 of 7 and lead the season series 7-5, while St. Louis is reeling. Ashcraft’s form and both teams’ cold bats suggest value on the Under.
💰 Odds: Cardinals -121, Pirates -101 | Total: 8.0

🔥 Top Pick: Under 7.5 (-124)
🔹 Shota Imanaga (CHC): 8-6, 3.03 ERA, 90 SO — 2.33 ERA in August
🔹 Logan Webb (SF): 12-9, 3.13 ERA, 180 SO — 2.60 ERA at home (last 3 years)
🔍 Webb’s been lights-out at Oracle, and the Cubs are hitting just .222 vs pitchers third time through. Chicago’s 39-17 after losses, but both starters should dominate in a classic pitcher's park.
💰 Odds: Cubs -112, Giants -109 | Total: 7.5

✅ Best Bet: Over 9.5 (-111)
🔹 Cal Quantrill (ATL): 4-11, 5.51 ERA, 85 SO — 3 ER in 4⅔ IP vs NYM last start
🔹 Aaron Nola (PHI): 2-7, 6.52 ERA, 62 SO — 4 QS in 11 starts
🔍 The Braves just put up 23 runs in two games and Philly’s hitting .276 at home—best in MLB. Both starters have ERAs over 5.50, and the trends point to fireworks.
💰 Odds: Phillies -187, Braves +152 | Total: 9.5

✅ Best Bet: Over 9.0 (-101)
🔹 SP (MIA): TBD
🔹 Clay Holmes (NYM): 11-6, 3.60 ERA, 109 SO — 2 ER in 6.1 IP vs ATL
🔍 The Mets have scored 111 runs since Aug 10 and just swept the Phillies. Miami’s allowing a league-worst .878 OPS w/ RISP, and no starter is announced. Fireworks likely.
💰 Odds: Mets -261, Marlins +208 | Total: 9.0

✅ Best Bet: Over 9.0 (-107)
🔹 Will Warren (NYY): 7-6, 4.47 ERA, 146 SO — just 5 QS in 27 starts
🔹 Davis Martin (CHW): 5-9, 3.93 ERA, 80 SO — 5.6 IP avg in last 13 starts
🔍 The Yankees are averaging 6.4 runs over their last 10, and the Sox are putting up 5.9. Add in shaky SPs and the Sox's .361 SLG vs righties (worst in AL), this leans Over.
💰 Odds: Yankees -198, White Sox +160 | Total: 9.0

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