Today's MLB Rundown + Best Bets (8/26)

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Phillies ML (-115) @ Mets – 7:10 PM ET
Jesús Luzardo has a 2.48 ERA over his last five starts and owns a 2.63 ERA in nine career outings vs the Mets. Sean Manaea’s 5.15 ERA and recent 17 earned runs allowed in 4 starts make this a sharp lean to Philly in a near pick’em.

Cubs -143 @ Giants – 9:45 PM ET
Matthew Boyd has delivered a 2.14 ERA across his last 15 starts, while Verlander continues a brutal season at 1-10 with a 4.64 ERA. With the Giants hitting just .232 and losers of three straight, Boyd and the Cubs have a clear edge.

Under 8.0 (-112) – Braves @ Marlins – 6:40 PM ET
Hurston Waldrep (0.73 ERA) faces Sandy Alcantara, who's allowed just two runs in his last 13 IP. Both teams are playing low-scoring games lately, and this total sits at a key number.

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🔹 Lucas Giolito (BOS): 8-2, 3.72 ERA, 91 SO – 2-0 with a 3.03 ERA over last 5 starts
🔹 Kyle Bradish (BAL): Making 2025 debut – 2.75 ERA pre-TJ surgery, 4.91 ERA in rehab
✅ Best Bet: Under 8.5 (-103)
Boston has won 4 of 5 and sends in-form Giolito to face a rusty Bradish. With Boston’s bullpen dominant vs lefties and Bradish on a pitch count, the Under gets the lean.
💰 Odds: BOS -112, BAL -108 | Total: 8.5

🔹 Shane Baz (TB): 8-10, 5.22 ERA, 143 SO – 1.37 WHIP on the year
🔹 Parker Messick (CLE): 0-0, 1.35 ERA – solid debut
✅ Best Bet: Under 7.5 (-102)
Tampa Bay's bullpen allows just a .136 AVG with two strikes, and Cleveland has hit .168 with a 5.12 ERA over its last 10. Rays have the offensive edge, but this could stay low scoring.
💰 Odds: CLE -120, TB -102 | Total: 7.5

🔹 Hurston Waldrep (ATL): 4-0, 0.73 ERA – 1 ER in 6+ IP vs MIA on Aug 9
🔹 Sandy Alcantara (MIA): 7-11, 6.04 ERA – 2 ER over last 13 IP
🔥 Top Pick: Under 8.0 (-112)
Two starters trending up meet two teams struggling to score. Waldrep has been lights out and Alcantara looks healthy. Close, low-run game incoming.
💰 Odds: ATL -132, MIA +108 | Total: 8.0

🔹 MacKenzie Gore (WSH): 5-12, 4.11 ERA – 7.88 ERA last 7 starts
🔹 Luis Gil (NYY): 1-1, 4.26 ERA – high walk rate
✅ Best Bet: Over 9.0 (-115)
Gore's recent blowups and the Nats’ 5.60 bullpen ERA make this prime for Yankees runs. Stanton has 4 HR in his last 6, and New York scored 10 on Monday.
💰 Odds: NYY -187, WSH +152 | Total: 9.0

🔹 Bailey Ober (MIN): 4-7, 5.05 ERA – 5 ER in 7 IP vs TOR on June 6
🔹 Chris Bassitt (TOR): 11-7, 4.18 ERA – 1-1 vs MIN in career
✅ Best Bet: Over 8.5 (-115)
Toronto ranks 1st in MLB in AVG and K rate, while Minnesota has lost 11 of 14 with bullpen depth issues. Bassitt gets enough support for the Over to hit.
💰 Odds: TOR -164, MIN +134 | Total: 8.5

🔹 Jesús Luzardo (PHI): 12-6, 4.10 ERA – 4-1, 2.48 ERA last 5 starts
🔹 Sean Manaea (NYM): 1-2, 5.15 ERA – 17 ER in last 4 starts
🔥 Top Pick: Phillies ML (-115)
Luzardo has owned the Mets, while Manaea’s struggles continue. Philly’s SPs lead MLB in strikeout rate with two strikes (49%), giving Luzardo the edge.
💰 Odds: PHI -115, NYM -106 | Total: 8.0

🔹 Michael Lorenzen (KC): 5-8, 4.50 ERA – 2.47 ERA in 11 career apps vs CHW
🔹 Martín Pérez (CHW): 1-3, 2.51 ERA – 1.80 ERA in last start
✅ Best Bet: Over 8.5 (-114)
Chicago’s scored 7+ in 4 straight and has won 3 in a row. With shaky bullpens and hot bats, the Over is the sharper angle here.
💰 Odds: KC -116, CHW -104 | Total: 8.5

🔹 Brandon Pfaadt (ARI): 12-8, 4.95 ERA – 4.18 ERA in August
🔹 Jacob Misiorowski (MIL): 4-2, 4.19 ERA – 8 ER in last 5⅓ IP
✅ Best Bet: Over 8.0 (-114)
Arizona leads MLB in AVG (.295) the third time through the order, and Misiorowski’s struggled post-IL. Add in shaky relief from both sides, and this tilts Over.
💰 Odds: MIL -158, ARI +129 | Total: 8.0

🔹 Mitch Keller (PIT): 5-12, 4.34 ERA – 11 ER over last 2 starts
🔹 Andre Pallante (STL): 6-11, 5.17 ERA – 15 ER in last 3
✅ Best Bet: Over 8.0 (-110)
Both starters got shelled recently despite earlier success vs these teams. With shaky command on both ends, Over makes sense.
💰 Odds: STL -131, PIT +108 | Total: 8.0

🔹 Yusei Kikuchi (LAA): 6-8, 3.42 ERA – 1 ER in 7 IP last start
🔹 Patrick Corbin (TEX): 6-9, 4.61 ERA – 11.48 ERA in August
✅ Best Bet: Under 8.5 (-103)
Despite Corbin’s struggles, both teams have leaned Under lately. A short-handed Rangers lineup vs a solid Kikuchi tips this toward a lower-scoring game.
💰 Odds: LAA -116, TEX -105 | Total: 8.5

🔹 Tanner Gordon (COL): 4-5, 7.11 ERA – 7+ runs allowed in 4 of 9 starts
🔹 Hunter Brown (HOU): 10-5, 2.36 ERA – 22 of 25 starts with 3 ER or less
✅ Best Bet: Over 8.0 (-106)
Gordon’s blowup potential plus Houston’s explosive home offense point to a game that could clear the total despite Brown’s steadiness.
💰 Odds: HOU -357, COL +275 | Total: 8.0

🔹 Dylan Cease (SD): 6-11, 4.71 ERA – winless on the road
🔹 Luis Castillo (SEA): 8-7, 3.57 ERA – 2.08 ERA vs SD in 5 starts
✅ Best Bet: Under 8.0 (-115)
Seattle’s won 10 of 11 at home, and Castillo has owned the Padres. San Diego’s night-game Unders (16 of 18) keep this lean consistent.
💰 Odds: SEA -115, SD -106 | Total: 8.0

🔹 Matthew Boyd (CHC): 12-6, 2.61 ERA – 8-4 with 2.14 ERA last 15
🔹 Justin Verlander (SF): 1-10, 4.64 ERA – .275 BAA
🔥 Top Pick: Cubs -143
San Francisco's bats are cold, and Verlander’s been a liability. Boyd’s elite form and the Cubs’ momentum make this a sharp chalk play.
💰 Odds: CHC -143, SF +118 | Total: 7.5

🔹 Charlie Morton (DET): 9-10, 5.09 ERA – 2 ER in last 12 IP
🔹 Osvaldo Bido (OAK): 2-4, 5.37 ERA – working short outings
✅ Best Bet: Under 11.0 (-115)
With Bido likely limited and Morton settling in, the high total looks inflated. Tigers’ improved hitting vs lefties could help, but this profiles as a cleaner Under.
💰 Odds: DET -127, OAK +104 | Total: 11.0

🔹 Nick Martinez (CIN): 10-9, 4.59 ERA – 1 ER, 7 K in last start
🔹 Clayton Kershaw (LAD): 8-2, 3.13 ERA – 3 ER in last start
✅ Best Bet: Under 9.0 (-115)
Dodgers games have stayed Under in 65 of 130 contests, and Kershaw faces a road-troubled Reds team. Under is the better angle in a matchup between playoff hopefuls.
💰 Odds: LAD -186, CIN +151 | Total: 9.0

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