Today's MLB Rundown + Best Bets (8/24/25)

We deliver concise MLB previews with key takeaways for every matchup, so you’re informed without the hassle. Our AI-driven analysis simulates sports traders’ betting strategies to identify the best bets.

We’re most active on Twitter. Reply to this email with your thoughts, bets, or anything else — we respond to every reply.

Tigers ML (-149) vs Royals – 1:40 PM ET
Detroit's won 9 of 10 behind a 2.35 team ERA and now sends Flaherty (3.45 home ERA) against a Royals lineup that ranks 26th in wRC+ and averages just 4.0 runs over their last four.

Mets/Braves Under 9.5 (-116) – 1:35 PM ET
Peterson’s in peak form with a 2.79 ERA in day games, while Atlanta ranks 18th in wRC+ vs lefties. Elder is volatile, but he held the Mets in check just 10 days ago.

Dodgers/Padres Under 8.0 (-109) – 4:10 PM ET
Yamamoto (2.90 ERA) and Pivetta (2.81 ERA) square off at Petco, which ranks 26th in park factor for runs. San Diego's bullpen leads MLB with a 2.89 ERA, and both teams have hit the Under consistently of late.

Colorado Rockies (37-93) @ Pittsburgh Pirates (56-74) – 12:05 PM ET
🔥 Top Pick: Under 7.5 (-106)
🔹 McCade Brown (COL): MLB debut — 2.47 ERA, 12.3 K/9 in minors
🔹 Paul Skenes (PIT): 7-9, 2.16 ERA, 174 SO — 1.81 ERA at home
🔍 Skenes has held opponents under 8 runs in 8 of his last 10 starts, and Colorado owns the highest starter ERA in MLB (6.65). Pittsburgh's bats remain cold with an MLB-worst .656 OPS, giving this matchup a strong lean under.
💰 Odds: Pirates -311, Rockies +243 | Total: 7.5

St. Louis Cardinals (64-66) @ Tampa Bay Rays (62-67) – 12:10 PM ET
✅ Best Bet: Over 9.0 (+100)
🔹 Matthew Liberatore (STL): 6-10, 4.13 ERA — 3.73 ERA in road starts
🔹 Ryan Pepiot (TB): 8-10, 3.95 ERA — 17 of 26 HR allowed at home
🔍 This homer-happy park averages 2.72 HR/game, and both clubs are swinging it well. Pepiot's vulnerability to the long ball at home adds volatility to what should be a high-scoring finale.
💰 Odds: Rays -141, Cardinals +116 | Total: 9.0

Houston Astros (72-58) @ Baltimore Orioles (59-70) – 1:35 PM ET
✅ Best Bet: Over 9.0 (-118)
🔹 Spencer Arrighetti (HOU): 1-4, 6.94 ERA — 12 runs allowed in 13.2 IP in August
🔹 Trevor Rogers (BAL): 6-2, 1.41 ERA — 1.29 ERA in August
🔍 The Astros have erupted for 26 runs in the series, and despite Rogers’ dominance, Baltimore’s rotation has a 4.76 ERA this season. Arrighetti's struggles and Houston’s resurgent offense tilt this toward the over.
💰 Odds: Orioles -144, Astros +118 | Total: 9.0

Washington Nationals (53-76) @ Philadelphia Phillies (75-54) – 1:35 PM ET
✅ Best Bet: Over 9.5 (-115)
🔹 Jake Irvin (WSH): 8-8, 5.30 ERA — struggles with hard contact
🔹 Ranger Suárez (PHI): 9-6, 3.25 ERA — elite soft contact metrics
🔍 The Phillies lead the NL in home average (.277) and are facing a Nats bullpen with the worst ERA in baseball (5.59). Philly’s hot bats and Irvin’s contact issues set up for runs.
💰 Odds: Phillies -287, Nationals +227 | Total: 9.5

New York Mets (69-60) @ Atlanta Braves (58-71) – 1:35 PM ET
🔥 Top Pick: Under 9.5 (-116)
🔹 David Peterson (NYM): 8-5, 3.18 ERA — 2.79 ERA in day games
🔹 Bryce Elder (ATL): 5-9, 6.29 ERA — 8 ER in last start
🔍 Peterson's in rhythm and has held opponents to a 3.19 ERA over his last seven starts. Atlanta ranks 18th in wRC+ vs lefties, and Elder did tame the Mets just 10 days ago.
💰 Odds: Mets -136, Braves +112 | Total: 9.5

Kansas City Royals (66-64) @ Detroit Tigers (78-53) – 1:40 PM ET
🔥 Top Pick: Tigers ML (-149)
🔹 Seth Lugo (KC): 8-6, 3.73 ERA — 12 quality starts
🔹 Jack Flaherty (DET): 7-12, 4.51 ERA — 3.45 home ERA
🔍 Detroit is on a 9-1 tear with a +25 run differential and ranks second-best in OPS vs lefties (.779). Flaherty’s been solid at home and draws a KC team averaging 4.0 runs over their last four.
💰 Odds: Tigers -149, Royals +122 | Total: 8.5

Toronto Blue Jays (76-54) @ Miami Marlins (60-69) – 1:40 PM ET
✅ Best Bet: Over 7.5 (-113)
🔹 Kevin Gausman (TOR): 8-9, 3.78 ERA — 4 of last 5 starts ≤ 2 ER
🔹 Eury Pérez (MIA): 5-3, 3.48 ERA — 12 runs allowed in last 3 starts
🔍 Toronto’s offense has piled up 12 runs in the first two games, and Pérez has been hittable lately. Blue Jays are MLB’s best team vs LHP (.270 AVG), while Miami ranks near the bottom.
💰 Odds: Blue Jays -137, Marlins +112 | Total: 7.5

Minnesota Twins (59-70) @ Chicago White Sox (46-83) – 2:10 PM ET
✅ Best Bet: Over 9.0 (-108)
🔹 Taj Bradley (MIN): 6-6, 4.61 ERA — first start in over a year
🔹 Yoendrys Gómez (CHW): 3-1, 5.53 ERA — low IP sample
🔍 Rate Field is the 9th most hitter-friendly park, and both pitchers bring question marks. Twins have dominated the White Sox this season and could generate enough offense alone to push it over.
💰 Odds: Twins -116, White Sox -105 | Total: 9.0

San Francisco Giants (62-68) @ Milwaukee Brewers (81-49) – 2:10 PM ET
✅ Best Bet: Under 9.0 (-115)
🔹 Robbie Ray (SF): 10-6, 2.85 ERA — 2.15 ERA in 5 career starts vs MIL
🔹 Brewers SP: TBD
🔍 Ray has been sharp and faces a Milwaukee team that had its seven-game home win streak snapped Saturday. With the Giants hitting .209 vs LHP (MLB-worst), this profiles as a pitching-heavy grind.
💰 Odds: Giants -121, Brewers -101 | Total: 9.0

Cleveland Guardians (64-64) @ Texas Rangers (65-66) – 2:35 PM ET
✅ Best Bet: Under 7.5 (-110)
🔹 Gavin Williams (CLE): 8-4, 3.24 ERA — 3 of last 4 starts < 2 ER
🔹 Merrill Kelly (TEX): 9-7, 3.35 ERA — backed by MLB’s top bullpen ERA
🔍 Both teams rank among the league’s worst in OPS and are coming off inconsistent offensive performances. Cleveland managed just 17 runs over its last six games, and this total reflects that stagnation.
💰 Odds: Rangers -120, Guardians -102 | Total: 7.5

Chicago Cubs (75-55) @ Los Angeles Angels (61-68) – 4:07 PM ET
✅ Best Bet: Over 9.5 (-119)
🔹 Jameson Taillon (CHC): 8-6, 4.26 ERA — 11 quality starts
🔹 Kyle Hendricks (LAA): 6-8, 4.93 ERA — 7 quality starts
🔍 Cubs are 7-3 in their last 10 and drawing a matchup with the highest strikeout offense in MLB (Angels – 26%). Combine that with a 5.90 ERA from LA's bullpen and this one should get loud.
💰 Odds: Cubs -138, Angels +113 | Total: 9.5

Cincinnati Reds (67-63) @ Arizona Diamondbacks (64-66) – 4:10 PM ET
✅ Best Bet: Over 9.0 (-105)
🔹 Brady Singer (CIN): 11-9, 4.18 ERA — 2.00 ERA in 3 career starts vs ARI
🔹 Zac Gallen (ARI): 9-13, 5.28 ERA — 3.52 ERA over last 4 starts
🔍 Arizona ranks best in MLB in slugging vs RHP (.455), and Gallen has given up 26 homers — second-most in the NL. Both teams can mash, and this profiles as a 6-5 kind of day.
💰 Odds: Diamondbacks -132, Reds +108 | Total: 9.0

Los Angeles Dodgers (73-57) @ San Diego Padres (74-56) – 4:10 PM ET
🔥 Top Pick: Under 8.0 (-109)
🔹 Yoshinobu Yamamoto (LAD): 10-8, 2.90 ERA — 1.08 WHIP
🔹 Nick Pivetta (SD): 13-4, 2.81 ERA — 2.14 ERA at home
🔍 Petco ranks 26th in park factor for runs, and both teams are struggling offensively this series. With elite arms and San Diego’s bullpen (MLB-best 2.89 ERA), this one shapes up as a true pitchers' duel.
💰 Odds: Padres -111, Dodgers -110 | Total: 8.0

Athletics (60-71) @ Seattle Mariners (69-61) – 4:10 PM ET
✅ Best Bet: Under 7.5 (-107)
🔹 Jacob Lopez (OAK): 7-6, 3.28 ERA — 2 ER in 25.2 August IP
🔹 Logan Gilbert (SEA): 3-5, 3.83 ERA — 2.92 ERA in 13 career starts vs OAK
🔍 Seattle is batting .222 at home, lowest in MLB, while Lopez has been nails this month. Offense will be hard to come by unless the bullpens collapse.
💰 Odds: Mariners -176, Athletics +144 | Total: 7.5

Boston Red Sox (71-59) @ New York Yankees (69-60) – 7:10 PM ET
✅ Best Bet: Over 8.5 (-112)
🔹 Dustin May (BOS): 7-9, 4.59 ERA — 6.28 road ERA
🔹 Carlos Rodón (NYY): 13-7, 3.24 ERA — 3 straight quality starts
🔍 May owns a 6.00 ERA in the first inning and the Yankees lead MLB with 39 first-inning home runs. Stanton is red-hot, and Boston’s bullpen is elite — but early fireworks should push this over.
💰 Odds: Yankees -172, Red Sox +140 | Total: 8.5

Preview every MLB game today with our short-form write-ups. Each newsletter has:

🔮 Best Bets at the top.
📊 Game Previews below.
👀 Plus, we’re building tools to let you experiment on your own - more coming soon…

Are you a sportsbook operator? Reply to this email to discuss integrating our live game write-ups into your platform or explore our B2B site: montecarmelo.info

Interested in making your own newsletter? Use the link below to receive a 30-day trial + 20% OFF for 3 months on Beehiiv! Reply to this email, and we’ll even help you get started with AI tips and tricks to jumpstart your journey