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🔥 Top Picks
Brewers/Cubs Under 6.5 (+101) – 2:20 PM ET
Two of the NL’s sharpest arms this month—Priester (1.78 ERA last 4 road starts) and Imanaga (2.25 ERA in August)—square off in a series that’s hit the under in 3 of 4. Cubs have the league’s lowest OBP vs starters the third time through, and Brewers starters dominate with runners in scoring position
Royals ML (-120) vs Rangers – 2:10 PM ET
Lorenzen hasn’t allowed a run in his last two outings and owns a 3.40 ERA at home. Corbin has been shelled in 6 of his last 7 starts and hasn’t pitched into the fourth inning in two straight.
Red Sox/Yankees Under 8.5 (-115) – 7:15 PM ET
Three straight meetings between these clubs have stayed under, and Giolito’s 3.63 ERA sets the tone. With Gil improving and bullpens likely to decide it late, this projects as a pitchers’ duel.
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⚾ Game Previews
Oakland Athletics (58-70, .453) @ Minnesota Twins (58-68, .460) – 1:10 PM ET
✅ Best Bet: Over 9.5 (-109)
🔹 Jack Perkins (OAK): 2-2, 4.28 ERA – back-to-back wins with just 3 ER over last 11 IP
🔹 José Ureña (MIN): 0-0, 4.06 ERA – 5.2 scoreless innings in last outing
🔍 Oakland's won 4 of 5 and Langeliers has homered in 3 straight. Minnesota’s dropped 5 of 6 and struggles early in counts. The Athletics rank 4th in MLB in first-pitch batting average (.363).
💰 Odds: Athletics -117, Twins -104 | Total: 9.5
Texas Rangers (63-65, .492) @ Kansas City Royals (65-62, .512) – 2:10 PM ET
🔥 Top Pick: Royals ML (-120)
🔹 Patrick Corbin (TEX): 6-9, 4.45 ERA – 5.23 ERA over last 7 starts
🔹 Michael Lorenzen (KC): 5-8, 4.43 ERA – 3.26 ERA over last 7 starts; 0 ER in last 2
🔍 Texas has dropped 8 of 10 and gets no help from Corbin, who’s barely made it out of the third inning lately. Kansas City turns to Lorenzen, who’s thriving at Kauffman with a 3.40 ERA at home and hasn’t allowed a run in his last two outings.
💰 Odds: Royals -120, Rangers -102 | Total: 9.0
Milwaukee Brewers (79-48, .622) @ Chicago Cubs (73-54, .575) – 2:20 PM ET
🔥 Top Pick: Under 6.5 (+101)
🔹 Quinn Priester (MIL): 11-2, 3.48 ERA – 1.78 ERA and 0.87 WHIP last 4 road starts
🔹 Shota Imanaga (CHC): 8-5, 3.06 ERA – 22 K, 2 BB in August
🔍 Both teams are trending under and have struggled with runners in scoring position. Milwaukee starters lead MLB in RISP defense (.201 avg), while Cubs hitters have the league’s worst OBP when seeing a starter the third time.
💰 Odds: Cubs -144, Brewers +118 | Total: 6.5
Los Angeles Dodgers (72-55, .567) @ Colorado Rockies (37-90, .291) – 3:10 PM ET
✅ Best Bet: Dodgers -1.5 (-110)
🔹 Clayton Kershaw (LAD): 7-2, 3.01 ERA – 2.34 ERA in 7 road starts
🔹 Chase Dollander (COL): 2-9, 6.43 ERA – 1.57 WHIP and .273 BAA in 17 starts
🔍 Despite Colorado’s mini hot streak, Kershaw dominated them in June and the Rockies’ starters allow a league-worst .316 average at home. Dodgers lead MLB in RISP slugging (.496).
💰 Odds: Dodgers -226, Rockies +182 | Total: 12.0
New York Mets (67-59, .532) @ Washington Nationals (51-75, .405) – 4:05 PM ET
✅ Best Bet: Mets ML (-137)
🔹 Sean Manaea (NYM): 1-1, 4.78 ERA – 2 ER or fewer in 2 starts vs WAS
🔹 MacKenzie Gore (WSH): 5-12, 4.04 ERA – 6.04 ERA over last 5 starts
🔍 Mets have won 5 of 6 vs Washington and own the league’s highest hard-hit rate vs RHP (47%). Gore has dropped 3 straight to the Mets.
💰 Odds: Mets -137, Nationals +113 | Total: 8.5
San Francisco Giants (61-66, .480) @ San Diego Padres (71-56, .559) – 4:10 PM ET
✅ Best Bet: Under 8.0 (-118)
🔹 Justin Verlander (SF): 1-9, 4.23 ERA – 3.03 ERA over last 7 starts
🔹 Dylan Cease (SD): 5-11, 4.61 ERA – 2.77 ERA in day games
🔍 San Francisco has scored just 2 runs total in last 2 games and ranks dead last vs LHP. Cease has been lights out in matinees, while Verlander is in vintage form.
💰 Odds: Padres -194, Giants +158 | Total: 8.0
Houston Astros (69-58, .543) @ Baltimore Orioles (59-67, .468) – 7:15 PM ET
✅ Best Bet: Over 9.0 (+101)
🔹 Jason Alexander (HOU): 3-1, 2.63 ERA – no more than 2 ER allowed in last 4 starts
🔹 Brandon Young (BAL): 1-6, 5.68 ERA – 8 scoreless IP vs HOU in last start
🔍 The Over has hit in 6 of the last 8 combined games between these teams. Baltimore’s won 6 of 7 and faces an Astros team that's lost 5 of 6.
💰 Odds: Orioles -121, Astros -101 | Total: 9.0
Boston Red Sox (68-59, .535) @ New York Yankees (69-57, .548) – 7:15 PM ET
🔥 Top Pick: Under 8.5 (-115)
🔹 Lucas Giolito (BOS): 8-2, 3.63 ERA – 1 ER over 6.1 IP in last outing
🔹 Luis Gil (NYY): 1-1, 5.14 ERA – 3 ER over 10.2 IP in last 2 starts
🔍 Yankees are 5-0 in their last 5, but Boston holds a 5-1 season edge. Both pitchers enter in solid form and this matchup has trended Under in three straight.
💰 Odds: Yankees -149, Red Sox +122 | Total: 8.5
St. Louis Cardinals (63-65, .492) @ Tampa Bay Rays (61-66, .480) – 7:35 PM ET
✅ Best Bet: Under 8.5 (-115)
🔹 Sonny Gray (STL): 11-6, 4.30 ERA – 3.03 ERA in last 7 starts
🔹 Joe Boyle (TB): 1-2, 4.68 ERA – making first career start vs STL
🔍 Two of MLB’s worst second-half offenses square off. Tampa’s hitting .222 since the break, and STL ranks 27th in wRC+. The total looks inflated given these struggles.
💰 Odds: Cardinals -117, Rays -103 | Total: 8.5
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