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🔥 Top Picks
Tigers/Astros Under 8.0 (+100) – 1:10 PM ET
Framber Valdez has allowed 3 ER or fewer in 7 straight starts and carved up Detroit in April (7 IP, 1 ER). Houston hasn’t scored in three straight games, and Charlie Morton’s volatility should be contained by a quick turnaround after Tuesday's 10-inning game.
Brewers/Cubs Under 7.0 (-125) – 8:05 PM ET
Wrigley’s winds are blowing in, both starters have sub-4 ERAs, and seven of the last nine matchups between these clubs have hit the under. Chicago’s lineup struggles the third time through, and Misiorowski’s issues away from home could be neutralized by Rea's steadiness.
Blue Jays -1.5 (+110) @ Pirates – 12:35 PM ET
Toronto leads the AL with a .268 AVG and faces Johan Oviedo, who’s carrying an 18.00 ERA. Chris Bassitt has dominated the Pirates historically, and Pittsburgh is averaging just 3.1 runs per game at home.
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⚾ Game Previews
Toronto Blue Jays (74-53) @ Pittsburgh Pirates (53-74) – 12:35 PM ET
🔥 Top Pick: Blue Jays -1.5 (+110)
🔹 Chris Bassitt (TOR): 11-6, 4.22 ERA, 132 SO — 4-0, 2.10 ERA in last five vs PIT
🔹 Johan Oviedo (PIT): 0-0, 18.00 ERA, 3 SO — walked 3 in 1 IP this year
🔍 Toronto is averaging 6.9 runs per game over their last five and faces a Pirates lineup hitting just .214 at home. Oviedo’s control issues meet a patient Jays team that ranks 10th in walks drawn.
💰 Odds: TOR -172, PIT +141 | Total: 8.5
Seattle Mariners (68-59) @ Philadelphia Phillies (73-53) – 1:05 PM ET
✅ Best Bet: Under 9.0 (-120)
🔹 Luis Castillo (SEA): 8-6, 3.48 ERA, 125 SO — shelled for 6 ER in last start
🔹 Jesús Luzardo (PHI): 11-6, 4.21 ERA, 158 SO — 2.52 ERA over last four starts
🔍 Castillo and Luzardo both allow hard contact inconsistently, but Luzardo’s recent form and Seattle’s cold bats (18 runs allowed in this series) tilt this low. Schwarber is 6-for-20 with 4 HR vs Castillo.
💰 Odds: PHI -156, SEA +128 | Total: 9.0
Houston Astros (69-57) @ Detroit Tigers (75-53) – 1:10 PM ET
🔥 Top Pick: Under 8.0 (+100)
🔹 Framber Valdez (HOU): 11-6, 3.01 ERA, 151 SO — 7 straight starts w/ ≤3 ER
🔹 Charlie Morton (DET): 8-10, 5.20 ERA, 122 SO — 48 BB in 101.1 IP
🔍 Detroit’s won 7 of 8 and has shut out Houston two straight. Valdez should slow the Tigers’ bats, and with Houston scoreless in three straight, expect a conservative approach in a quick turnaround.
💰 Odds: HOU -131, DET +107 | Total: 8.5
Cleveland Guardians (64-61) @ Arizona Diamondbacks (61-66) – 3:40 PM ET
✅ Best Bet: Under 9.0 (-112)
🔹 Parker Messick (CLE): MLB debut — 3.47 ERA in Triple-A
🔹 Brandon Pfaadt (ARI): 12-8, 5.08 ERA, 108 SO — 4 ER in last outing
🔍 Cleveland is averaging 2.6 runs over their last five and has MLB’s lowest batting average. Arizona leads MLB with a .785 OPS vs righties but is 1-4 in their last five.
💰 Odds: ARI -121, CLE -101 | Total: 9.0
St. Louis Cardinals (63-64) @ Miami Marlins (59-67) – 6:40 PM ET
✅ Best Bet: Over 8.5 (-108)
🔹 Andre Pallante (STL): 6-10, 5.04 ERA — 1-4 with 6.46 ERA in last five
🔹 Sandy Alcantara (MIA): 6-11, 6.31 ERA — improved 3.60 ERA in last five
🔍 St. Louis has plated 15 runs over the last two games and Miami starters own MLB’s worst RISP batting average allowed (.310). This one should open up early.
💰 Odds: MIA -126, STL +104 | Total: 8.5
New York Mets (67-58) @ Washington Nationals (50-75) – 6:45 PM ET
✅ Best Bet: Over 9.0 (-105)
🔹 Kodai Senga (NYM): 7-4, 2.35 ERA, 95 SO — anchors strong Mets rotation
🔹 Brad Lord (WSH): 3-6, 3.26 ERA — facing hot Mets lineup
🔍 Washington’s bullpen ranks worst in MLB by opponent AVG (.276) and OPS (.806). Juan Soto’s red-hot (.357 in last 10) bat could break this one open.
💰 Odds: NYM -172, WSH +141 | Total: 9.0
Chicago White Sox (45-81) @ Atlanta Braves (57-69) – 7:15 PM ET
✅ Best Bet: Over 9.0 (-112)
🔹 Martín Pérez (CWS): 1-2, 3.09 ERA — hasn’t gone past 5 IP in 3 of 5
🔹 Hurston Waldrep (ATL): 3-0, 1.02 ERA — 2-game QS streak
🔍 The last two games totaled 43 runs. Atlanta is averaging 7.2 runs over their last 10, and Chicago’s poor .663 OPS vs RHP spells more trouble against Waldrep.
💰 Odds: ATL -194, CWS +157 | Total: 9.0
New York Yankees (68-57) @ Tampa Bay Rays (61-65) – 7:35 PM ET
✅ Best Bet: Under 8.5 (-108)
🔹 Cam Schlittler (NYY): 1-2, 3.94 ERA — 4 BB in last outing vs TB
🔹 Drew Rasmussen (TB): 10-5, 2.60 ERA — 2-0 with 0.52 ERA in August
🔍 Rasmussen has held opponents to 1 ER or less in 14 of 24 starts. After New York’s 13-run outburst Tuesday, expect regression vs a Rays arm they’ve never solved.
💰 Odds: TB -121, NYY -101 | Total: 8.5
Texas Rangers (62-65) @ Kansas City Royals (65-61) – 7:40 PM ET
✅ Best Bet: Royals ML (-101)
🔹 Rangers SP: TBD
🔹 Noah Cameron (KC): 7-5, 2.47 ERA — Royals have won 4 of his last 5
🔍 Texas owns the AL’s worst OPS vs LHP (.629) and the Royals have dominated this season series (5-0). With KC 7-1 in their last eight, edge leans to the hosts.
💰 Odds: KC -101, TEX -121 | Total: 8.0
Oakland Athletics (57-70) @ Minnesota Twins (58-67) – 7:40 PM ET
✅ Best Bet: Over 9.0 (-116)
🔹 J.T. Ginn (OAK): 2-5, 5.04 ERA — first career start vs MIN
🔹 Bailey Ober (MIN): 4-7, 5.15 ERA — 3-0, 1.33 ERA vs OAK in career
🔍 Both starters carry ERAs over 5.00, and Oakland brings a quietly powerful lineup featuring Rooker and Kurtz. Minnesota’s looking to bounce back from a 6-3 loss.
💰 Odds: MIN -126, OAK +104 | Total: 9.0
Milwaukee Brewers (79-47) @ Chicago Cubs (72-54) – 8:05 PM ET
🔥 Top Pick: Under 7.0 (-125)
🔹 Jacob Misiorowski (MIL): 4-1, 3.89 ERA — 7.36 road ERA
🔹 Colin Rea (CHC): 9-5, 3.99 ERA — just 1 ER in last outing
🔍 Cubs hitters bat .218 vs SP the third time through, and Milwaukee's bats have cooled since their 14-game win streak. Wrigley’s run factor and wind conditions scream under.
💰 Odds: MIL -115, CHC -105 | Total: 7.0
Los Angeles Dodgers (72-54) @ Colorado Rockies (36-90) – 8:40 PM ET
✅ Best Bet: Over 11.5 (-117)
🔹 Shohei Ohtani (LAD): 0-0, 3.47 ERA — hasn’t thrown 5 IP in any outing
🔹 Tanner Gordon (COL): 3-5, 7.98 ERA — 1.80 WHIP
🔍 Gordon’s been shelled repeatedly, and Coors Field (1.317 run factor) makes this a slugfest waiting to happen. Dodgers are 9-2 as -300+ favorites.
💰 Odds: LAD -327, COL +255 | Total: 11.5
Cincinnati Reds (67-60) @ Los Angeles Angels (60-66) – 9:38 PM ET
✅ Best Bet: Over 8.5 (-120)
🔹 Nick Martinez (CIN): 10-9, 4.73 ERA — allowed 6 ER in 2⅔ IP last outing
🔹 Yusei Kikuchi (LAA): 6-8, 3.52 ERA — 2.40 ERA at home
🔍 Reds have won 10 straight vs the Angels and are pushing for a Wild Card spot. LA has allowed 4+ runs in 13 straight games.
💰 Odds: LAA -137, CIN +113 | Total: 9.0
San Francisco Giants (61-65) @ San Diego Padres (70-56) – 9:40 PM ET
✅ Best Bet: Under 8.0 (-112)
🔹 Landen Roupp (SF): 7-6, 3.45 ERA — shut out SD earlier this year
🔹 JP Sears (SD): 7-10, 5.12 ERA — allowed 3 H in 6 IP vs SF on July 4
🔍 SF is hitting .212 vs LHP (worst in MLB), and the Padres' bullpen has MLB’s lowest ERA and .211 opponent AVG. This series has leaned heavily under, and tonight should follow.
💰 Odds: SD -157, SF +128 | Total: 8.0
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