Today's MLB Rundown + Best Bets

We deliver concise MLB previews with key takeaways for every matchup, so you’re informed without the hassle. Our AI-driven analysis simulates sports traders’ betting strategies to identify the best bets.

We’re most active on Twitter. Reply to this email with your thoughts, bets, or anything else — we respond to every reply.

Brewers ML (-188) @ Nationals – 4:05 PM ET
Brandon Woodruff has allowed two or fewer earned runs in each start and owns a 1.29 ERA lifetime vs Washington. With Milwaukee leading MLB and the Nats reeling after allowing 25 hits Friday, this is a clear edge for the Brewers.

Marlins/Yankees Over 8.0 (-105) – 4:10 PM ET
Cam Schlittler’s 13.2% walk rate and lefties hitting .343 against him put New York in a dangerous spot against Miami’s lineup. Eury Pérez is sharp, but the Yankees’ bats (.457 SLG vs RHP) can push this total over.

Guardians ML (-163) vs Twins – 4:10 PM ET
Cleveland rides Tanner Bibee’s three straight wins against a Minnesota team gutted by deadline trades and trotting out a rusty Bailey Ober. The Twins’ bullpen is in shambles, giving Cleveland a strong edge at home.

✅ Best Bet: Over 8.5 (-123)
🔹 Blake Snell (LAD): 1-0, 2.00 ERA — returning sharp from shoulder inflammation
🔹 Drew Rasmussen (TB): 8-5, 2.96 ERA — solid but vulnerable to hard contact
🔍 The Dodgers lead MLB with an .872 OPS with RISP and face a Rays team with a 5.02 ERA over the last 10. With both offenses in play, this looks primed to clear the total.
💰 Odds: Dodgers -121, Rays -101 | Total: 8.5

✅ Best Bet: Under 7.5 (-121)
🔹 Tomoyuki Sugano (BAL): 8-5, 4.38 ERA — 21 HR allowed in 109 IP
🔹 Matthew Boyd (CHC): 11-4, 2.47 ERA — 9-0 with 1.95 ERA at home
🔍 Baltimore’s lineup is depleted, and Boyd dominates at Wrigley. With wind favoring pitchers, the under is the play.
💰 Odds: Cubs -226, Orioles +182 | Total: 7.5

✅ Best Bet: Under 8.0 (-112)
🔹 Noah Cameron (KC): 5-4, 2.44 ERA — five straight outings of 5+ innings
🔹 Max Scherzer (TOR): 1-1, 4.89 ERA — veteran with strong track record vs KC
🔍 Toronto has lost five of six and struggles to keep the ball in the yard. Sharp money has hit the under, expecting a tight contest.
💰 Odds: Blue Jays -144, Royals +119 | Total: 8.0

✅ Best Bet: Over 10.5 (-103)
🔹 Paul Skenes (PIT): 6-8, 1.83 ERA — six straight starts of 5+ innings, three scoreless
🔹 Austin Gomber (COL): 0-5, 6.28 ERA — still searching for a quality start
🔍 After yesterday’s wild 17-16 finish, expect more fireworks in the altitude. Coors Field plus shaky bullpens screams over.
💰 Odds: Pirates -220, Rockies +178 | Total: 10.5

🔥 Top Pick: Under 6.5 (-102)
🔹 Tarik Skubal (DET): 10-3, 2.09 ERA — blanked Philly in previous start
🔹 Zack Wheeler (PHI): 9-4, 2.56 ERA — NL leader with 172 strikeouts
🔍 Two Cy Young front-runners collide in a rare duel with history on the line. Both pens are shaky, but these arms should keep runs scarce.
💰 Odds: Phillies -115, Tigers -105 | Total: 6.5

🔥 Top Pick: Brewers ML (-188)
🔹 Brandon Woodruff (MIL): 2-0, 2.01 ERA — 4-0, 1.29 ERA vs Washington
🔹 Jake Irvin (WSH): 8-5, 4.69 ERA — 0-4, 5.84 ERA vs Milwaukee
🔍 Milwaukee’s dominance and Washington’s collapse make this lopsided. Woodruff’s track record seals it.
💰 Odds: Brewers -188, Nationals +153 | Total: 8.5

✅ Best Bet: Over 9.5 (-102)
🔹 Colton Gordon (HOU): 4-3, 4.74 ERA — first start vs Boston
🔹 Walker Buehler (BOS): 6-6, 5.72 ERA — high ERA, shaky control
🔍 Both starters are hittable, and Fenway boosts runs. The line favors a slugfest.
💰 Odds: Red Sox -126, Astros +104 | Total: 9.5

✅ Best Bet: Under 8.5 (-110)
🔹 Kai-Wei Teng (SF): Season debut — posted 9.82 ERA in last MLB stint
🔹 Kodai Senga (NYM): 7-3, 2.00 ERA — dominant, 10 of 13 starts with ≤2 ER
🔍 Mets are rolling at home, and Senga should silence the Giants’ struggling bats. Under fits with SF’s weak offense.
💰 Odds: Mets -199, Giants +162 | Total: 8.5

✅ Best Bet: Under 7.5 (-110)
🔹 Merrill Kelly (TEX): 9-6, 3.22 ERA — threw six scoreless vs SEA in June
🔹 Luis Castillo (SEA): 8-6, 3.19 ERA — four straight quality starts vs Texas
🔍 Both aces have dominated this matchup, and early series games stayed under. Expect another tight one.
💰 Odds: Mariners -125, Rangers +103 | Total: 7.5

🔥 Top Pick: Guardians ML (-163)
🔹 Bailey Ober (MIN): 4-6, 5.28 ERA — returning from injury, likely on limit
🔹 Tanner Bibee (CLE): 7-9, 4.39 ERA — three straight wins, 3.84 ERA at home
🔍 Cleveland is stable; Minnesota’s roster is decimated and bullpen gutted. The Guardians should control this.
💰 Odds: Guardians -163, Twins +133 | Total: 7.0

🔥 Top Pick: Over 8.0 (-105)
🔹 Cam Schlittler (NYY): 1-1, 4.91 ERA — 13.2% walk rate, struggles vs LHB
🔹 Eury Pérez (MIA): 3-3, 3.07 ERA — allowed 4 ER in last 5 starts combined
🔍 Miami’s bats can exploit Schlittler, while Stanton’s hot streak boosts the Yanks. This total is too low.
💰 Odds: Marlins -115, Yankees -106 | Total: 8.0

✅ Best Bet: Over 8.0 (-114)
🔹 Spencer Strider (ATL): 5-8, 3.71 ERA — 2.91 ERA over last nine starts
🔹 Chase Burns (CIN): 0-3, 6.26 ERA — rookie with growing pains
🔍 The historic Bristol Motor Speedway stage plus Burns’ struggles point to runs. Expect fireworks in front of 100K fans.
💰 Odds: Braves -123, Reds +101 | Total: 8.0

✅ Best Bet: Over 10.0 (-115)
🔹 Zac Gallen (AZ): 7-12, 5.60 ERA — 23 HR allowed, 16 runs in last 3 starts
🔹 J.T. Ginn (OAK): 2-2, 3.89 ERA — coming off six shutout innings
🔍 Oakland’s hot bats (18 HR in eight games) and Gallen’s HR issues make this a strong over play in hitter-friendly Sacramento.
💰 Odds: Athletics -120, Diamondbacks -102 | Total: 10.0

✅ Best Bet: Under 9.0 (-105)
🔹 Aaron Civale (CWS): 2-6, 4.38 ERA — solid lately, controls contact
🔹 Kyle Hendricks (LAA): 6-7, 4.73 ERA — owns 8.50 ERA vs White Sox lifetime
🔍 Despite recent Sox scoring, seven of last ten meetings stayed under. Pitching trends suggest another low total.
💰 Odds: Angels -150, White Sox +123 | Total: 9.0

✅ Best Bet: Under 8.5 (-102)
🔹 Michael McGreevy (STL): 2-2, 4.91 ERA — inconsistent, roughed up by SD last start
🔹 Randy Vásquez (SD): 3-4, 3.65 ERA — sharper at home
🔍 Padres are surging, but recent matchups have stayed low scoring. Expect another under with SD’s strong home arms.
💰 Odds: Padres -149, Cardinals +123 | Total: 8.5

Preview every MLB game today with our short-form write-ups. Each newsletter has:

🔮 Best Bets at the top.
📊 Game Previews below.
👀 Plus, we’re building tools to let you experiment on your own - more coming soon…

Are you a sportsbook operator? Reply to this email to discuss integrating our live game write-ups into your platform or explore our B2B site: montecarmelo.info

Interested in making your own newsletter? Use the link below to receive a 30-day trial + 20% OFF for 3 months on Beehiiv! Reply to this email, and we’ll even help you get started with AI tips and tricks to jumpstart your journey