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🔥 Top Picks
Tigers ML (-172) vs Astros – 6:40 PM ET
Detroit is 40-24 at home and sends Tarik Skubal (11-3, 2.42 ERA) to the mound despite recent hiccups. Houston’s offense ranks 24th in OPS over the last 15 games and just .709 vs righties—tough matchup against Detroit’s elite arms.
Brewers-Cubs Game 1 Under 7.5 (-124) – 2:20 PM ET
Chad Patrick faces Matthew Boyd in a Wrigley matinee with 12–15 mph winds blowing in. Milwaukee is on a 15-1 run and boasts a 31.4% ROI vs top-10 offenses. With both pitchers trending down and conditions favoring arms, the Under is live.
Cardinals/Marlins Over 8.0 (-103) – 6:40 PM ET
loanDepot Park is playing 13% above league average for runs, and St. Louis’s contact-heavy starter McGreevy (4.41 ERA, 28 K in 51 IP) faces a Miami team looking to bounce back. Both clubs flashed life offensively Monday, making this a good Over spot.
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⚾ Game Previews
Doubleheader Note: The Brewers and Cubs will play two at Wrigley today due to Monday’s rainout. Milwaukee has won 15 of 16 and holds a 9-game lead in the NL Central.
Milwaukee Brewers (79-45) @ Chicago Cubs (70-54) – 2:20 PM (Game 1)
🔹 Chad Patrick (MIL): 3-7, 3.52 ERA, 95 SO
🔹 Matthew Boyd (CHC): 11-6, 2.46 ERA, 126 SO
📍 Boyd owns a 9.68 ERA in four career starts vs MIL and was tagged for five runs in his last outing against them. Patrick returns from a long layoff, facing a Cubs team that’s slumping against top-tier staffs. Winds blowing in + Wrigley’s 0.898 run factor =
🔥 Top Pick: Under 7.5 (-124)
💰 Odds: Brewers -115, Cubs -105 | Total: 7.0
Toronto Blue Jays (73-53) @ Pittsburgh Pirates (53-73) – 6:40 PM
🔹 Max Scherzer (TOR): 3-2, 3.83 ERA, 52 SO
🔹 Mitch Keller (PIT): 5-11, 4.13 ERA, 112 SO
📍 Scherzer’s in dominant form (1.89 ERA last 3 starts), and Pittsburgh owns MLB’s lowest OPS (.648). With Vlad Jr. questionable, Toronto will lean on pitching in a game that trends low scoring.
✅ Best Bet: Under 8.0 (-117)
💰 Odds: Blue Jays -150, Pirates +123 | Total: 8.0
Houston Astros (69-56) @ Detroit Tigers (74-53) – 6:40 PM
🔹 Hunter Brown (HOU): 10-5, 2.45 ERA, 164 SO
🔹 Tarik Skubal (DET): 11-3, 2.42 ERA, 190 SO
📍 Detroit’s 7-2 in their last 9 and ranks 1st in AL Central. Skubal’s recent dip (10 ER in last 3) is offset by Houston's slumping offense (.393 SLG vs RHP).
🔥 Top Pick: Tigers ML (-172)
💰 Odds: Tigers -172, Astros +141 | Total: 7.0
St. Louis Cardinals (62-64) @ Miami Marlins (59-66) – 6:40 PM
🔹 Michael McGreevy (STL): 4-2, 4.41 ERA, 28 SO
🔹 Edward Cabrera (MIA): 6-6, 3.34 ERA, 120 SO
📍 Cabrera’s command is the edge, but both clubs lit up the scoreboard Monday. loanDepot is trending as a hitter’s park and STL starters rank 2nd worst in K%.
🔥 Top Pick: Over 8.0 (-103)
💰 Odds: Marlins -137, Cardinals +113 | Total: 8.0
New York Mets (66-58) @ Washington Nationals (50-74) – 6:45 PM
🔹 David Peterson (NYM): 7-5, 3.30 ERA, 117 SO
🔹 Jake Irvin (WSH): 8-7, 5.14 ERA, 94 SO
📍 Mets are 6-1 in Peterson’s starts vs WSH; Irvin’s rocking a 9.45 ERA this month. Add in the league’s worst bullpen (5.75 ERA), and the Over gets real appealing.
✅ Best Bet: Over 9.0 (-105)
💰 Odds: Mets -206, Nationals +167 | Total: 9.0
Seattle Mariners (68-58) @ Philadelphia Phillies (72-53) – 6:45 PM
🔹 Bryce Miller (SEA): 2-5, 5.73 ERA, 39 SO
🔹 Cristopher Sánchez (PHI): 11-4, 2.45 ERA, 157 SO
📍 Phillies are 5-0 at home with Sánchez starting, and Seattle has dropped 4 of 5. With both teams slugging and Miller returning from injury, the total's in play.
✅ Best Bet: Over 8.0 (-115)
💰 Odds: Phillies -187, Mariners +152 | Total: 8.0
Baltimore Orioles (58-67) @ Boston Red Sox (68-58) – 7:10 PM
🔹 Tomoyuki Sugano (BAL): 10-5, 4.13 ERA, 82 SO
🔹 Walker Buehler (BOS): 7-7, 5.43 ERA, 78 SO
📍 Sugano’s trending up, Buehler’s trending wild (50 BB in 106 IP). Fenway’s 1.093 run factor and warm air tilt this one toward fireworks.
✅ Best Bet: Over 9.0 (-117)
💰 Odds: Red Sox -144, Orioles +118 | Total: 9.0
Chicago White Sox (45-80) @ Atlanta Braves (56-69) – 7:15 PM
🔹 Shane Smith (CHW): 3-7, 4.01 ERA, 98 SO
🔹 Bryce Elder (ATL): 5-9, 5.89 ERA, 87 SO
📍 Elder owns a 6.66 ERA at home; Smith just spun 5 scoreless. With 22 total runs in Monday’s game, this matchup screams Over.
✅ Best Bet: Over 8.5 (-113)
💰 Odds: Braves -176, White Sox +144 | Total: 8.5
New York Yankees (67-57) @ Tampa Bay Rays (61-64) – 7:35 PM
🔹 Carlos Rodón (NYY): 12-7, 3.25 ERA, 164 SO
🔹 Shane Baz (TB): 8-9, 4.93 ERA, 140 SO
📍 Baz owns a 6.51 ERA over his last seven starts. With the Yankees mashing lefties (.788 OPS, best in MLB), they’ve got the edge.
✅ Best Bet: Yankees ML (-144)
💰 Odds: Yankees -144, Rays +118 | Total: 8.0
Texas Rangers (62-64) @ Kansas City Royals (64-61) – 7:40 PM
🔹 Merrill Kelly (TEX): 9-7, 3.36 ERA, 136 SO
🔹 Seth Lugo (KC): 8-6, 3.77 ERA, 110 SO
📍 Rangers are ice cold (2 wins last 10), but KC has won 6 of 7. Both starters are inconsistent, and bullpens may decide it late.
✅ Best Bet: Under 8.5 (-103)
💰 Odds: Royals -112, Rangers -108 | Total: 8.5
Oakland Athletics (56-70) @ Minnesota Twins (58-66) – 7:40 PM
🔹 Jacob Lopez (OAK): 6-6, 3.30 ERA, 103 SO
🔹 Joe Ryan (MIN): 12-5, 2.72 ERA, 153 SO
📍 Minnesota has the fly-ball heavy staff and the better starter. Their offense is sputtering at 3.7 runs/game over the last 10.
✅ Best Bet: Under 8.5 (-112)
💰 Odds: Twins -144, Athletics +118 | Total: 8.5
Milwaukee Brewers (79-45) @ Chicago Cubs (70-54) – 8:05 PM (Game 2)
🔹 Brandon Woodruff (MIL): 4-0, 2.06 ERA, 49 SO
🔹 Jameson Taillon (CHC): 7-6, 4.44 ERA, 74 SO
📍 Woodruff’s been electric since returning, and Milwaukee’s won 15 of 16. Taillon’s allowed 4+ runs in 3 of his last 4, putting the edge squarely with the visitors.
✅ Best Bet: Brewers ML (-115)
💰 Odds: Brewers -115, Cubs -105 | Total: 7.0
Los Angeles Dodgers (71-54) @ Colorado Rockies (36-89) – 8:40 PM
🔹 Emmet Sheehan (LAD): 3-2, 3.86 ERA, 37 SO
🔹 Austin Gomber (COL): 0-6, 6.75 ERA, 32 SO
📍 Gomber’s 0-6, hasn’t won in nearly a year, and faces Ohtani & Co. at Coors Field. This total is huge for a reason.
✅ Best Bet: Over 12.0 (-110)
💰 Odds: Dodgers -287, Rockies +227 | Total: 12.0
Cincinnati Reds (66-60) @ Los Angeles Angels (60-65) – 9:38 PM
🔹 Hunter Greene (CIN): 5-3, 2.47 ERA, 79 SO
🔹 Kyle Hendricks (LAA): 6-8, 4.88 ERA, 82 SO
📍 Angels have allowed 4+ runs in 12 straight, and Greene’s power arm feasts on high-K lineups like LAA (MLB-high 27% K rate vs LHP).
✅ Best Bet: Reds ML (-150)
💰 Odds: Reds -150, Angels +123 | Total: 8.5
Cleveland Guardians (64-60) @ Arizona Diamondbacks (60-66) – 9:40 PM
🔹 Tanner Bibee (CLE): 9-9, 4.54 ERA, 124 SO
🔹 Eduardo Rodriguez (ARI): 5-7, 5.40 ERA, 111 SO
📍 Guardians are riding strong road form (6-1 last 7) and get Rodriguez at Chase Field, where he holds a 5.73 ERA. Cleveland’s offense is bottom in AVG, but recent travel form gives them the edge.
✅ Best Bet: Guardians ML (-105)
💰 Odds: Diamondbacks -115, Guardians -105 | Total: 8.5
San Francisco Giants (61-64) @ San Diego Padres (69-56) – 9:40 PM
🔹 Kai-Wei Teng (SF): 1-2, 9.90 ERA, 8 SO
🔹 Nick Pivetta (SD): 12-4, 2.87 ERA, 144 SO
📍 Pivetta is 7-1 with a 2.41 ERA at Petco. Teng got shelled for 7 runs in less than 2 innings vs SD last week.
✅ Best Bet: Padres -1.5 (-110)
💰 Odds: Padres -245, Giants +196 | Total: 8.0
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