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🔥 Top Picks
Brewers ML (+104) @ Cubs – 2:20 PM ET
Freddy Peralta is locked in with a 2.90 ERA and 148 strikeouts, and Milwaukee leads MLB in road batting average (.275). Cade Horton has been solid, but Peralta owns Chicago with 16 Ks across three starts this year. The Brewers’ recent 14-game win streak wasn’t a fluke.
Blue Jays/Pirates Under 7.0 (-117) – 6:40 PM ET
Kevin Gausman has gone at least six innings in five straight, while Paul Skenes holds a 2.13 ERA and is the NL Cy Young favorite despite poor run support. Toronto avoids strikeouts better than anyone, and Pittsburgh can’t score—MLB-worst 3.5 runs per game. This is an old-school pitchers' duel.
Red Sox/Orioles Under 8.0 (-102) – 7:10 PM ET
Trevor Rogers has a dominant 1.43 ERA and elite ground ball and walk rates. Baltimore’s offense owns the worst wRC+ (63) in August. Despite a 12-run outburst Sunday, they're still ice cold overall, and Boston's pen shuts down lefty bats.
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⚾ Game Previews
📌 Makeup Game Note:
Brewers @ Cubs (Game 1) – 2:20 PM ET is a make-up game from June 18.
Milwaukee Brewers (78-45) @ Chicago Cubs (70-53) – 2:20 PM ET
🔥 Top Pick: Brewers ML (+104)
🔹 Freddy Peralta (MIL): 14-5, 2.90 ERA, 148 SO — 16 Ks vs Cubs in 3 starts
🔹 Cade Horton (CHC): 7-3, 3.07 ERA, 67 SO — Cubs 11-5 in his starts
🔍 Peralta has struck out 16 batters in 15 innings across three starts vs the Cubs this year, and Milwaukee’s lineup leads MLB in road OBP (.344). With Chicago struggling third time through the order and Horton facing MLB’s hottest team, edge goes to the Brew Crew.
💰 Odds: Cubs -126, Brewers +104 | Total: 9.0
Houston Astros (69-55) @ Detroit Tigers (73-53) – 6:40 PM ET
✅ Best Bet: Under 8.5 (-115)
🔹 Spencer Arrighetti (HOU): 1-3, 6.38 ERA — 12.27 ERA on road
🔹 Jack Flaherty (DET): 6-12, 4.76 ERA — 3.79 ERA at home
🔍 Detroit has won 6 of 8 and boasts a solid home mark behind Flaherty’s consistency. Houston’s bullpen is elite (27% K rate), but Arrighetti has struggled away from home. This shapes up as a low-scoring matchup.
💰 Odds: Tigers -158, Astros +129 | Total: 8.5
Toronto Blue Jays (73-52) @ Pittsburgh Pirates (52-73) – 6:40 PM ET
🔥 Top Pick: Under 7.0 (-117)
🔹 Kevin Gausman (TOR): 8-9, 3.79 ERA — 4 straight 6+ IP, 2 ER or fewer
🔹 Paul Skenes (PIT): 7-9, 2.13 ERA, 166 SO — dominant with no run support
🔍 Toronto avoids strikeouts better than any team in MLB, while Pittsburgh has the league's worst run production. Skenes and Gausman should both thrive in this low-scoring spot.
💰 Odds: Pirates -112, Blue Jays -108 | Total: 7.0
St. Louis Cardinals (61-64) @ Miami Marlins (59-65) – 6:40 PM ET
✅ Best Bet: Under 7.5 (-110)
🔹 Matthew Liberatore (STL): 6-10, 4.08 ERA
🔹 Eury Pérez (MIA): 5-3, 3.58 ERA
🔍 Both teams are under .500 over their last 10, and the Cardinals' .221 batting average with two outs is tied for worst in the NL. With Miami’s 5.64 ERA over its last 10, expect runs to be hard to come by.
💰 Odds: Marlins -147, Cardinals +121 | Total: 7.5
Seattle Mariners (68-57) @ Philadelphia Phillies (71-53) – 6:45 PM ET
✅ Best Bet: Under 7.5 (-103)
🔹 Logan Gilbert (SEA): 3-4, 3.31 ERA — 4.08 ERA on road
🔹 Ranger Suárez (PHI): 8-6, 3.28 ERA — 14 runs allowed in last 3 home starts
🔍 Gilbert has been dependable on the bounce back, and Suarez has struggled at Citizens Bank. Both lineups can strike early, but pitching should win late.
💰 Odds: Phillies -116, Mariners -104 | Total: 7.5
Baltimore Orioles (57-67) @ Boston Red Sox (68-57) – 7:10 PM ET
🔥 Top Pick: Under 8.0 (-102)
🔹 Trevor Rogers (BAL): 5-2, 1.43 ERA — 47.8% GB rate, 87th percentile BB rate
🔹 Dustin May (BOS): 7-8, 4.67 ERA — 6 scoreless innings last outing
🔍 Baltimore ranks dead last with a .192 AVG and 63 wRC+ in August. Rogers has been elite, and Boston’s bullpen dominates lefty hitters (.305 SLG against). Lean under.
💰 Odds: Red Sox -124, Orioles +102 | Total: 8.0
Chicago White Sox (44-80) @ Atlanta Braves (56-68) – 7:15 PM ET
✅ Best Bet: Over 8.5 (-119)
🔹 Yoendrys Gómez (CHW): 2-1, 5.56 ERA
🔹 Spencer Strider (ATL): 5-10, 4.69 ERA — 100 SO
🔍 Atlanta’s bats are heating up, averaging 6.2 runs over their last 10. Chicago’s offense is bottom-tier, but Gomez’s ERA and Braves’ form (8-2 last 10) tilt this game toward the over.
💰 Odds: Braves -206, White Sox +167 | Total: 8.5
Texas Rangers (62-63) @ Kansas City Royals (63-61) – 7:40 PM ET
✅ Best Bet: Over 9.5 (-101)
🔹 Jack Leiter (TEX): 7-6, 3.94 ERA — 2.55 ERA last 5 starts
🔹 Michael Wacha (KC): 7-9, 3.35 ERA — 3-0, 2.00 ERA last 6
🔍 Kansas City has won 13 of its last 18 at home and recently swept the White Sox in a three-game series. With both teams surging offensively, especially KC, and Leiter's past struggles vs this lineup, the over makes sense.
💰 Odds: Royals -132, Rangers +108 | Total: 9.5
Los Angeles Dodgers (71-53) @ Colorado Rockies (35-89) – 8:40 PM ET
✅ Best Bet: Over 11.0 (-112)
🔹 Yoshinobu Yamamoto (LAD): 10-8, 2.84 ERA — 3-0 vs COL this season
🔹 Kyle Freeland (COL): 3-12, 5.18 ERA — 15.6% K rate, .307 xBA
🔍 The Dodgers have won 10 straight vs Colorado and demolished Freeland in prior matchups. Add in Coors Field and LA’s red-hot bats, and this leans heavily toward the over.
💰 Odds: Dodgers -304, Rockies +239 | Total: 11.0
Cincinnati Reds (65-60) @ Los Angeles Angels (60-64) – 9:38 PM ET
✅ Best Bet: Under 9.0 (-102)
🔹 Brady Singer (CIN): 10-9, 4.31 ERA — 3-2 in last 5 starts
🔹 Victor Mederos (LAA): 0-0, 5.63 ERA — only one start
🔍 Cincinnati’s pitching has a 2.44 ERA over its last five, and Angels hitters strike out in 26% of PAs vs righties—worst in MLB. The Reds' staff keeps it tight even if the matchup isn’t flashy.
💰 Odds: Reds -112, Angels -108 | Total: 9.0
Cleveland Guardians (63-60) @ Arizona D-backs (60-65) – 9:40 PM ET
✅ Best Bet: Over 9.0 (-105)
🔹 Gavin Williams (CLE): 7-4, 3.38 ERA — lasted just three innings in his most recent outing against Miami, surrendering four runs
🔹 Zac Gallen (ARI): 9-12, 5.31 ERA — 22 straight 5+ IP starts
🔍 Gallen has been inconsistent and Williams was hit hard in his last start. Cleveland’s .184 AVG vs righties may hurt, but Arizona’s bullpen could open the door late.
💰 Odds: D-backs -123, Guardians +101 | Total: 9.0
San Francisco Giants (60-64) @ San Diego Padres (69-55) – 9:40 PM ET
✅ Best Bet: Under 7.5 (-109)
🔹 Robbie Ray (SF): 9-6, 2.98 ERA — Giants 5-2 as underdogs in his starts
🔹 Nestor Cortes (SD): 1-1, 5.71 ERA — Padres 2-0 when favored with him
🔍 The Giants rank dead last in MLB batting avg vs lefties (.211), and the Padres bullpen leads MLB in OPS allowed (.621). Combine that with Ray's dominance, and this one should stay low scoring.
💰 Odds: Padres -150, Giants +123 | Total: 7.5
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