Today's MLB Rundown + Best Bets (8/17/25)

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Brewers ML (-107) @ Reds – 1:40 PM ET
Milwaukee’s riding a franchise-best 14-game win streak and sends Quintana (3.44 ERA) against Abbott, who’s dropped back-to-back starts. The Brewers lead the season series 7–2 and just outlasted the Reds in extras Saturday.

Tigers ML (-132) @ Twins – 2:10 PM ET
Detroit’s won four straight and leads the season series 8–4. They face an unknown Twins starter while leaning on a red-hot offense (603 runs, 8th in MLB) that’s crushed lefties with a .767 OPS.

Rangers/Blue Jays Under 8.0 (-112) – 1:37 PM ET
Eovaldi (1.71 ERA) vs. Berríos (3.74 ERA) should deliver a pitchers' duel. Both teams have under trends with Toronto allowing just 2 runs over the last 2 games and Texas hitting .231 on their 4-game skid.

Philadelphia Phillies (70-53) @ Washington Nationals (50-73) – 11:35 AM ET
🔹 Aaron Nola (PHI): 1-7, 6.16 ERA, 52 SO – returns from IL after 11 Ks in final rehab start
🔹 Mitchell Parker (WSH): 7-13, 5.55 ERA, 84 SO – 10.67 ERA in 3 August starts
💡 Parker’s been shelled lately, and Philly gets back Nola in a soft landing. Schwarber’s 13 HR in his last 26 and Turner’s 8-for-14 in this series point to a bounce-back.
💰 Odds: PHI -175, WSH +143 | Total: 9.5
✅ Best Bet: Over 9.5 (-114)

Miami Marlins (58-65) @ Boston Red Sox (68-56) – 1:35 PM ET
🔹 Janson Junk (MIA): 6-2, 4.06 ERA, 52 SO – 12 ER allowed in 15 August innings
🔹 Garrett Crochet (BOS): 13-5, 2.48 ERA, 188 SO – 2.43 ERA at Fenway
💡 Boston has won 16 of its last 18 at home, and Crochet is dominating. Miami’s allowed the second-highest exit velocity in MLB and now faces the hardest-hitting lineup in the league.
💰 Odds: BOS -252, MIA +202 | Total: 8.5
✅ Best Bet: Under 8.5 (-116)

Texas Rangers (61-63) @ Toronto Blue Jays (73-51) – 1:37 PM ET
🔹 Nathan Eovaldi (TEX): 10-3, 1.71 ERA, 114 SO – 0.89 WHIP in last 7 starts
🔹 José Berríos (TOR): 9-4, 3.74 ERA, 119 SO – 0 ER in last start vs CHW
💡 Two strong starters and Texas has lost four straight while Toronto’s outfield exploded in Saturday’s 14–2 blowout. This one sets up for a regression to the mean offensively.
💰 Odds: TEX -112, TOR -108 | Total: 8.0
🔥 Top Pick: Under 8.0 (-112)

Atlanta Braves (55-68) @ Cleveland Guardians (63-59) – 1:40 PM ET
🔹 Erick Fedde (ATL): 4-12, 5.40 ERA, 70 SO – 11 ER in last 15 IP
🔹 Logan Allen (CLE): 7-9, 3.94 ERA, 92 SO – just 3 ER in last 10 IP
💡 Braves are on a 4-game win streak and averaging .265 at the plate in their last 10. Allen’s in better form than Fedde, and Cleveland’s low hard-hit rate suggests a quieter run environment.
💰 Odds: CLE -131, ATL +107 | Total: 9.0
✅ Best Bet: Under 9.0 (-119)

Milwaukee Brewers (78-44) @ Cincinnati Reds (64-60) – 1:40 PM ET
🔹 Jose Quintana (MIL): 10-4, 3.44 ERA – 2.71 career ERA vs CIN
🔹 Andrew Abbott (CIN): 8-3, 2.41 ERA – dropped back-to-back starts
💡 Milwaukee's won 14 straight and leads MLB in runs scored (636). Reds have dropped 6 of 10 and face a team that knows how to win tight games.
💰 Odds: CIN -113, MIL -107 | Total: 9.0
🔥 Top Pick: Brewers ML (-107)

Baltimore Orioles (56-67) @ Houston Astros (69-54) – 2:10 PM ET
🔹 Dean Kremer (BAL): 8-9, 4.17 ERA, 116 SO – 4.77 ERA by O's SPs this year
🔹 Cristian Javier (HOU): 1-0, 3.60 ERA, 5 SO – limited action this season
💡 Astros have won 6 of their last 10, including a 12-inning walk-off Saturday. Baltimore’s hit the under in 8 of their last 10 and has covered in 5 straight ATS.
💰 Odds: HOU -132, BAL +108 | Total: 8.5
✅ Best Bet: Under 8.5 (-115)

Detroit Tigers (73-52) @ Minnesota Twins (57-66) – 2:10 PM ET
🔹 Chris Paddack (DET): 4-10, 4.76 ERA – 9.00 ERA vs MIN this season
🔹 Twins SP: TBD
💡 Tigers are hot, winners of four straight and 8-4 vs Minnesota this year. Their .767 OPS vs LHP and league-best 603 runs fuel a potent offense.
💰 Odds: DET -132, MIN +108 | Total: 8.5
🔥 Top Pick: Tigers ML (-132)

Chicago White Sox (44-79) @ Kansas City Royals (62-61) – 2:10 PM ET
🔹 Davis Martin (CHW): 4-9, 4.17 ERA – 8 ER in last 10 IP
🔹 Ryan Bergert (KC): 1-1, 2.87 ERA – first start vs CHW
💡 Royals have won 10 straight home games vs CHW after a win. Chicago has MLB’s worst OPS (.666) and batting average with 2 outs (.208).
💰 Odds: KC -171, CHW +140 | Total: 9.5
✅ Best Bet: Under 9.5 (-119)

New York Yankees (66-57) @ St. Louis Cardinals (61-63) – 2:15 PM ET
🔹 Will Warren (NYY): 7-5, 4.34 ERA – 3 ER in last 17.2 IP
🔹 Miles Mikolas (STL): 6-9, 4.97 ERA – 67 ER in 117 IP
💡 The Yankees are rolling with four wins in five and just put up 12 runs Saturday. Mikolas has been hit hard, and St. Louis has dropped four straight.
💰 Odds: NYY -150, STL +123 | Total: 9.0
✅ Best Bet: Over 9.0 (-105)

Pittsburgh Pirates (52-72) @ Chicago Cubs (69-53) – 2:20 PM ET
🔹 Carmen Mlodzinski (PIT): 2-7, 4.20 ERA – 0 quality starts in 9 tries
🔹 Javier Assad (CHC): 0-1, 9.00 ERA – 4 ER in 4 IP last time out
💡 Cubs have taken 6 of 9 in the series and the Pirates have the worst OPS (.648) in MLB. Neither starter is sharp, but the bats aren’t reliable either.
💰 Odds: CHC -198, PIT +161 | Total: 7.5
✅ Best Bet: Under 7.5 (-102)

Arizona Diamondbacks (60-64) @ Colorado Rockies (34-89) – 3:10 PM ET
🔹 Nabil Crismatt (ARI): Season debut – unknown form
🔹 Antonio Senzatela (COL): 4-14, 7.34 ERA – 8 ER in 0.2 IP in last start
💡 Rockies have won two straight but still have the worst record in MLB. Diamondbacks slug .456 vs RHP, best in MLB, and this is Coors.
💰 Odds: ARI -132, COL +108 | Total: 12.5
✅ Best Bet: Over 12.5 (-119)

Los Angeles Angels (59-64) @ Oakland Athletics (56-69) – 4:05 PM ET
🔹 José Soriano (LAA): 8-9, 3.84 ERA – 7 ER vs TB last start
🔹 Jeffrey Springs (OAK): 10-8, 4.06 ERA – 4 ER in last outing vs LAA
💡 Angels lead MLB in K% vs LHP (27%), and A’s bullpen leads MLB in walk rate (11%). This one’s shaping up wild.
💰 Odds: LAA -114, OAK -106 | Total: 10.0
✅ Best Bet: Over 10.0 (-105)

Tampa Bay Rays (61-63) @ San Francisco Giants (59-64) – 4:05 PM ET
🔹 Ryan Pepiot (TB): 8-9, 3.86 ERA – 1.55 ERA vs NL in 5 starts
🔹 Logan Webb (SF): 10-9, 3.34 ERA – 3.01 ERA at home
💡 Giants have lost 6 straight, but Webb has been reliable at home. Rays have MLB’s best bullpen metrics with two strikes, and this looks like a low-scorer.
💰 Odds: SF -158, TB +129 | Total: 7.5
✅ Best Bet: Under 7.5 (-111)

San Diego Padres (69-54) @ Los Angeles Dodgers (70-53) – 4:10 PM ET
🔹 Yu Darvish (SD): 2-3, 5.61 ERA – 1 ER in last start vs SF
🔹 Tyler Glasnow (LAD): 1-1, 3.08 ERA – 2 ER in last start vs TOR
💡 Dodgers lead the series 7–2 and have won 5 of 6 vs SD. The under is 2–0 this weekend, and both bullpens are clicking.
💰 Odds: LAD -157, SD +129 | Total: 8.0
✅ Best Bet: Under 8.0 (-103)

Seattle Mariners (68-56) @ New York Mets (65-58) – 7:10 PM ET
🔹 George Kirby (SEA): 8-5, 3.71 ERA – M’s have won 7 of last 10
🔹 Clay Holmes (NYM): 9-6, 3.71 ERA – SP debut season trending down
💡 Mariners’ staff leads MLB with a .284 OBP allowed to RHB, while Mets rank dead last in batting average on grounders with runners on. Seattle’s offense just dropped 11 on Friday.
💰 Odds: SEA -126, NYM +104 | Total: 8.0
✅ Best Bet: Under 8.0 (-108)

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