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🔥 Top Picks
Brewers -1.5 (+125) @ Reds – 6:40 PM ET
Quinn Priester has led Milwaukee to five straight multi-run wins and now draws a Reds team hitting just .218 against division opponents. The Brewers are riding a 13-game win streak and lead MLB in road batting average.
Phillies ML (-144) @ Nationals – 4:05 PM ET
Washington owns MLB’s worst bullpen ERA (5.77) and faces Taijuan Walker, who’s quietly steady. With Schwarber and Harper locked in, Philly has a big edge over a green Cade Cavalli making just his second start of the year.
Under 8.0 (-105): Padres @ Dodgers – 9:10 PM ET
Cease has struggled on the road, but Snell's been sharp since returning, and both teams have leaned Under—13 of the Padres’ last 14 night games as dogs and 7 of the Dodgers’ last 8 as NL West favorites have hit the Under.
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⚾ Game Previews
Pittsburgh Pirates (52-71) @ Chicago Cubs (68-53) – 2:20 PM ET
✅ Best Bet: Over 9.0 (-106)
🔹 Mike Burrows (PIT): 1-4, 4.66 ERA — Pirates have allowed 8+ runs in 4 of his last 6
🔹 Shota Imanaga (CHC): 8-5, 3.19 ERA — 0 ER allowed in 19 IP vs PIT career
🔍 Despite Imanaga's dominance vs Pittsburgh, Burrows’ recent struggles and wind-friendly Wrigley lean this toward a higher-scoring afternoon. Suwinski homered Friday, but the Pirates remain MLB’s lowest OPS team (.649).
💰 Odds: Cubs -232, Pirates +187 | Total: 9.0
Texas Rangers (61-62) @ Toronto Blue Jays (72-51) – 3:07 PM ET
✅ Best Bet: Over 8.5 (-123)
🔹 Patrick Corbin (TEX): 6-8, 4.00 ERA — 5.48 ERA in 4 starts vs TOR
🔹 Eric Lauer (TOR): 7-2, 2.82 ERA — 2.16 ERA in 2 outings vs TEX
🔍 Lauer's been sharp, but Toronto’s lineup is rolling behind a red-hot Guerrero Jr. and MLB’s lowest K-rate. Texas has dropped 7 of 8 and could get buried early.
💰 Odds: Blue Jays -163, Rangers +133 | Total: 8.5
Philadelphia Phillies (70-52) @ Washington Nationals (49-73) – 4:05 PM ET
🔥 Top Pick: Phillies ML (-144)
🔹 Taijuan Walker (PHI): 4-5, 3.39 ERA — experienced arm vs shaky opponent
🔹 Cade Cavalli (WSH): 0-0, 3.86 ERA — just 9.1 IP this season
🔍 Philly snapped a mini-slide and faces MLB’s worst bullpen (5.77 ERA). Schwarber launched No. 43 Friday and Harper stayed hot.
💰 Odds: Phillies -144, Nationals +118 | Total: 10.0
Seattle Mariners (68-55) @ New York Mets (64-58) – 4:10 PM ET
✅ Best Bet: Under 8.5 (-111)
🔹 Bryan Woo (SEA): 10-6, 3.08 ERA — 145 K, elite road metrics
🔹 Nolan McLean (NYM): MLB debut — strong MiLB numbers
🔍 Woo gets the edge against a Mets team debuting McLean. Seattle’s second in road OPS (.770), but Woo should control things against MLB’s lowest groundball AVG lineup.
💰 Odds: Mariners -132, Mets +109 | Total: 8.5
Miami Marlins (58-64) @ Boston Red Sox (67-56) – 4:10 PM ET
✅ Best Bet: Over 9.5 (+100)
🔹 Cal Quantrill (MIA): 4-9, 5.09 ERA — 4.60 ERA vs BOS in 5 career starts
🔹 Brayan Bello (BOS): 8-6, 3.25 ERA — 1.32 ERA vs MIA in 5 starts
🔍 Boston’s gone Over in 8 of 10 games, and Miami’s poor splits vs lefties (.342 SLG, 3rd worst in MLB) should help Bello. Still, the Red Sox bullpen and recent trends suggest this total is reachable.
💰 Odds: Red Sox -181, Marlins +148 | Total: 9.5
Milwaukee Brewers (77-44) @ Cincinnati Reds (64-59) – 6:40 PM ET
🔥 Top Pick: Brewers -1.5 (+125)
🔹 Quinn Priester (MIL): 11-2, 3.49 ERA — team has won his last 5 by 2+ runs
🔹 Zack Littell (CIN): 9-8, 3.60 ERA — solid but outmatched here
🔍 Milwaukee leads MLB in road average (.278) and has won 13 straight. Yelich’s heating up and the Brewers’ bats have buried CIN in this season series.
💰 Odds: Brewers -137, Reds +113 | Total: 9.0
Baltimore Orioles (56-66) @ Houston Astros (68-54) – 7:10 PM ET
✅ Best Bet: Under 8.5 (-106)
🔹 Rico Garcia (BAL): 0-0, 3.71 ERA — low strikeout rate, limited sample
🔹 Jason Alexander (HOU): 3-1, 5.02 ERA — elevated ERA, but Orioles’ road OPS is .650 (lowest in AL)
🔍 Baltimore’s offense struggles away from Camden Yards, and Houston’s pitching staff has held firm at home. Altuve and Westburg could swing it, but this shapes up as a low-scoring tilt.
💰 Odds: Astros -145, Orioles +119 | Total: 8.5
Atlanta Braves (54-68) @ Cleveland Guardians (63-58) – 7:10 PM ET
✅ Best Bet: Under 8.5 (-110)
🔹 Joey Wentz (ATL): 3-3, 5.03 ERA — inconsistent form
🔹 Slade Cecconi (CLE): 5-5, 4.11 ERA — more reliable of the two
🔍 Cleveland’s offense hits just .186 in RHP vs RHB matchups (worst in MLB). Acuña Jr. is back but still searching for impact swings. Friday’s 2-0 finish looks like a trend.
💰 Odds: Guardians -120, Braves -101 | Total: 8.5
Chicago White Sox (44-78) @ Kansas City Royals (61-61) – 7:10 PM ET
✅ Best Bet: Under 9.5 (-115)
🔹 Sean Burke (CHW): 4-9, 4.26 ERA — 8 straight losses for CHW
🔹 Michael Lorenzen (KC): 5-8, 4.61 ERA — fresh off IL with success vs CHW
🔍 White Sox rank last in MLB in AVG (.228) and slugging vs fastballs (.226). KC has the emotional edge and superior lineup.
💰 Odds: Royals -163, White Sox +133 | Total: 9.5
Detroit Tigers (72-52) @ Minnesota Twins (57-65) – 7:15 PM ET
✅ Best Bet: Under 8.5 (-105)
🔹 Casey Mize (DET): 11-4, 3.50 ERA — .213 AVG allowed to Twins
🔹 Zebby Matthews (MIN): 3-4, 5.11 ERA — gave up 3 HR to NYY in last outing
🔍 Tigers are 5th in MLB in slugging vs lefties (.438), but have hit the Under in three straight. Mize’s track record vs MIN suggests a quieter night.
💰 Odds: Tigers -113, Twins -108 | Total: 8.5
New York Yankees (65-57) @ St. Louis Cardinals (61-62) – 7:15 PM ET
✅ Best Bet: Under 8.0 (-115)
🔹 Max Fried (NYY): 12-5, 2.94 ERA — 1.0 ER avg in 3 recent vs STL
🔹 Sonny Gray (STL): 11-5, 4.06 ERA — strong vs NYY last two starts
🔍 Both pitchers know these lineups well and come in with favorable matchups. NY leads MLB in OPS (.774), but STL has dropped three straight.
💰 Odds: Yankees -144, Cardinals +119 | Total: 8.0
Arizona Diamondbacks (60-63) @ Colorado Rockies (33-89) – 8:10 PM ET
✅ Best Bet: Over 11.5 (-115)
🔹 Ryne Nelson (ARI): 6-3, 3.46 ERA — 6 quality starts in last 8
🔹 Chase Dollander (COL): 2-9, 6.35 ERA — 7.74 ERA in last 10 team games
🔍 Arizona leads MLB in SLG vs RHP (.457) and faces a COL staff with lowest K rate and highest ERA in MLB. At Coors, expect fireworks.
💰 Odds: D-backs -188, Rockies +152 | Total: 11.5
Tampa Bay Rays (60-63) @ San Francisco Giants (59-63) – 9:05 PM ET
✅ Best Bet: Under 8.0 (-104)
🔹 Adrian Houser (TB): 6-4, 2.84 ERA — 7.59 ERA in 2 starts with Rays
🔹 Justin Verlander (SF): 1-9, 4.53 ERA — Giants 1-8 in his last 9 home starts
🔍 SF has lost 12 of 13 at home and struggles badly vs lefties (.607 OPS). Rays bullpen has been elite with two strikes.
💰 Odds: Giants -132, Rays +108 | Total: 8.0
San Diego Padres (69-53) @ Los Angeles Dodgers (69-53) – 9:10 PM ET
🔥 Top Pick: Under 8.0 (-105)
🔹 Dylan Cease (SD): 5-10, 4.52 ERA — 0-7, 5.52 ERA on the road
🔹 Blake Snell (LAD): 2-1, 2.37 ERA — 3 ER allowed in last 10 IP
🔍 Two teams tied atop the NL West with playoff-level intensity. Dodgers slug .479 at home, but trends lean Under in this one.
💰 Odds: Dodgers -132, Padres +108 | Total: 8.0
Los Angeles Angels (59-63) @ Oakland Athletics (55-69) – 10:05 PM ET
✅ Best Bet: Over 10.5 (-116)
🔹 Tyler Anderson (LAA): 2-7, 4.63 ERA — Angels 16-7 ATS with him starting
🔹 Luis Morales (OAK): 0-0, 1.93 ERA — limited data, high-variance
🔍 Angels have hit the Over in 66 of 120 games, and Oakland allows 5.67 runs per game at home (3rd highest in MLB). Fireworks expected in Sacramento.
💰 Odds: Athletics -115, Angels -105 | Total: 10.5
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The acquisition pattern is predictable. The opportunity to get in before it happens is not.
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