Today's MLB Rundown + Best Bets (8/13/25)

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Tigers/White Sox Over 8.0 (-117) – 2:10 PM ET
Detroit's offense ranks top 10 in OPS and runs per game and gets a gift matchup vs Shane Smith, who owns an 8.78 ERA over his last seven starts. Even Chicago’s bats have tagged Detroit’s bullpen this season.

Brewers/Pirates Under 7.5 (-121) – 2:10 PM ET
Woodruff’s 2.29 ERA has powered a perfect 6-0 Milwaukee record in his starts. Pittsburgh owns MLB’s lowest slugging percentage (.345) and OPS (.647), and Keller's in strong form.

Phillies/Reds Over 8.0 (-119) – 5:10 PM ET
With Hunter Greene returning on a pitch count and Sánchez facing a hot Reds lineup, this sets up well for runs. Philly’s offense ranks top 3 in OPS and wRC+ this month, and both starters may exit early.

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🔹 Jake Irvin (WSH): 8-7, 4.90 ERA, 91 SO – 2.60 ERA over last 3 road starts
🔹 Seth Lugo (KC): 8-6, 3.46 ERA, 108 SO – hit hard in last outing (15.75 ERA)
KC goes for the sweep as Irvin looks to continue his strong road form. Lugo needs a bounce-back after getting shelled last start, but he’ll face a Nats bullpen with MLB’s worst ERA (5.81).
💰 Odds: Royals -171, Nationals +140 | Total: 9.0
✅ Best Bet: Under 9.0 (-118)

🔹 Troy Melton (DET): 2-1, 3.63 ERA, 15 SO – bullpen game
🔹 Shane Smith (CWS): 3-7, 4.22 ERA, 93 SO – 8.78 ERA over last 7 starts
Smith's regression and Detroit's top-5 OPS vs LHPs set up a slugfest. The Tigers' bullpen is shaky, and Chicago’s lineup has hit them well this season.
💰 Odds: Tigers -144, White Sox +118 | Total: 8.0
🔥 Top Pick: Over 8.0 (-117)

🔹 Mitch Keller (PIT): 5-10, 3.86 ERA, 107 SO – 4-game personal win streak
🔹 Brandon Woodruff (MIL): 4-0, 2.29 ERA, 45 SO – Brewers 6-0 in his starts
Milwaukee’s won 11 straight and crushed the Pirates 21-1 in the first two games. Woodruff hasn’t allowed more than 2 ER in any start, while Keller’s in solid form, making this a rare value under.
💰 Odds: Brewers -261, Pirates +208 | Total: 7.5
🔥 Top Pick: Under 7.5 (-121)

🔹 Austin Gomber (COL): 0-6, 6.52 ERA, 30 SO – 7.11 ERA over last 5 starts
🔹 Michael McGreevy (STL): 4-2, 4.40 ERA, 26 SO – coming off shutout vs Cubs
The Rockies snapped their 8-game skid, but they’re 15-46 on the road. McGreevy already handled Colorado once, and STL crushes lefties with the second-best wRC+ over the last month.
💰 Odds: Cardinals -245, Rockies +196 | Total: 8.5
✅ Best Bet: Under 8.5 (-110)

🔹 Zac Gallen (ARI): 9-12, 5.31 ERA, 130 SO – 1 ER over 6 IP in last start
🔹 Merrill Kelly (TEX): 9-7, 3.38 ERA, 131 SO – faces former team
D-backs slug righties better than any team in baseball (.458 SLG), but Kelly may have the edge in this revenge spot. Gallen's been shaky all year, especially on the road.
💰 Odds: Rangers -155, Diamondbacks +127 | Total: 8.0
✅ Best Bet: Under 8.0 (-115)

🔹 Nick Pivetta (SD): 11-4, 2.94 ERA, 139 SO – rough last start, but strong season
🔹 Kai-Wei Teng (SF): 1-1, 5.40 ERA, 8 SO – 8.1 IP in MLB career
San Diego’s won 4 straight and outscored SF 9-2 this series. Pivetta had 7 straight dominant outings before his last one, and Giants bats have gone cold.
💰 Odds: Padres -156, Giants +128 | Total: 8.0
✅ Best Bet: Under 8.0 (-118)

🔹 Cristopher Sánchez (PHI): 11-3, 2.36 ERA, 151 SO – 1 ER in last start
🔹 Hunter Greene (CIN): 4-3, 2.72 ERA, 73 SO – first start since June 3
Philly’s offense is scorching and gets Greene in his return from injury. Both teams can hit, and Greene is likely on a pitch count.
💰 Odds: Phillies -126, Reds +104 | Total: 8.0
🔥 Top Pick: Over 8.0 (-119)

🔹 Logan Gilbert (SEA): 3-4, 3.35 ERA, 118 SO – 0.98 WHIP over last 37.2 IP
🔹 Trevor Rogers (BAL): 5-2, 1.44 ERA, 54 SO – just 5 ER over last 40.1 IP
Seattle's won 8 straight, and Baltimore's lost 7 of 10. With two hot arms, and all four meetings this year staying under, the trend should hold.
💰 Odds: Mariners -144, Orioles +118 | Total: 8.5
✅ Best Bet: Under 8.5 (-118)

🔹 Eury Pérez (MIA): 4-3, 3.25 ERA, 52 SO – dominant prior to last outing
🔹 Gavin Williams (CLE): 7-4, 3.17 ERA, 123 SO – nearly threw no-hitter last start
With Cleveland hitting .229 (tied for worst in MLB) and Miami struggling vs lefties (.639 OPS), runs may be scarce. Two strong starters in a quiet-hitting spot.
💰 Odds: Guardians -137, Marlins +113 | Total: 8.0
✅ Best Bet: Under 8.0 (-116)

🔹 Joe Ryan (MIN): 11-5, 2.79 ERA, 146 SO – 0.92 WHIP
🔹 Cam Schlittler (NYY): 1-2, 4.38 ERA, 24 SO – 7 H, 2 ER last outing
The Yankees have won 9 straight over Minnesota and smashed 3 homers Tuesday. Ryan gives the Twins an edge on the mound, but New York’s bats are heating up.
💰 Odds: Yankees -156, Twins +128 | Total: 8.5
✅ Best Bet: Over 8.5 (-111)

🔹 Cade Horton (CHC): 6-3, 3.18 ERA, 59 SO – 17 scoreless IP in last 3 starts
🔹 Kevin Gausman (TOR): 8-8, 3.85 ERA, 135 SO – 2.42 ERA post-break
The Jays are 39-19 at home and hitting well, while Chicago's offense has cooled. Both starters are in form, and the Cubs strike out a lot vs Gausman’s splitter.
💰 Odds: Blue Jays -136, Cubs +112 | Total: 8.5
✅ Best Bet: Under 8.5 (-105)

🔹 Walker Buehler (BOS): 7-6, 5.40 ERA, 75 SO – 6 scoreless IP in last start
🔹 Hunter Brown (HOU): 9-5, 2.51 ERA, 160 SO – 2 ER in last outing
Boston torched Houston 14-1 on Tuesday and ranks second in hard-hit rate (46%). With both teams showing offense and bullpen vulnerabilities, it leans over.
💰 Odds: Astros -158, Red Sox +129 | Total: 8.0
✅ Best Bet: Over 8.0 (-105)

🔹 Carlos Carrasco (ATL): 2-2, 6.18 ERA, 32 SO – 6 ER in last start
🔹 David Peterson (NYM): 7-5, 2.98 ERA, 112 SO – 7 SO in last start
The Mets ended their 9-game skid by smashing 6 homers Tuesday. Carrasco is a liability, and Atlanta’s bats rank bottom-5 with 2 strikes.
💰 Odds: Mets -206, Braves +167 | Total: 9.0
✅ Best Bet: Over 9.0 (-103)

🔹 Shohei Ohtani (LAD): 0-0, 2.37 ERA, 25 SO – 1 ER over 4 IP in last start
🔹 Kyle Hendricks (LAA): 6-8, 4.63 ERA, 78 SO – 7.56 ERA vs LAD in 2024
The Angels are 5-0 vs the Dodgers this year and have scored at least 6 runs in all 5 games. With Ohtani on the mound and both teams slugging, this sets up for fireworks.
💰 Odds: Dodgers -206, Angels +167 | Total: 9.5
✅ Best Bet: Over 9.5 (-105)

🔹 Drew Rasmussen (TB): 9-5, 2.66 ERA, 97 SO – 0 ER in last start
🔹 J.T. Ginn (OAK): 2-4, 4.39 ERA, 58 SO – 9 SO last outing
Oakland’s bullpen walks more batters than any team in baseball, while Tampa's pen has MLB’s lowest OBP allowed with 2 strikes. With Rasmussen rolling, the under makes sense.
💰 Odds: Rays -137, Athletics +113 | Total: 9.5
✅ Best Bet: Under 9.5 (-119)

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