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🔥 Top Picks
Phillies ML (-156) @ Reds – 6:40 PM ET
Ranger Suárez owns a 2.12 ERA in 9 career starts vs Cincy and ranks in the 99th percentile in exit velocity allowed. He leads a Phillies squad that’s 8-2 over their last 10 and dominating on the road.
Brewers/Pirates Under 6.5 (+102) – 7:40 PM ET
Paul Skenes (1.94 ERA) leads MLB in ERA, and Freddy Peralta (3.03 ERA) has 13 wins. Both starters dominate, and Pittsburgh ranks last in runs scored. Expect a low-scoring grind at AmFam.
Tigers/White Sox Over 8.5 (-112) – 7:40 PM ET
Detroit ranks tied 4th in MLB in slugging vs LHP (.436), and faces a depleted Sox pitching staff. Flaherty has a 1.54 ERA vs Chicago, but uncertainty around the White Sox starter plus their league-worst .228 batting average point to scoring chances on both sides.
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⚾ Game Previews
Seattle Mariners (66-53) @ Baltimore Orioles (53-65) – 6:35 PM
✅ Best Bet: Under 9.0 (-106)
🔹 George Kirby (SEA): 7-5, 4.04 ERA – 2.66 ERA over last 8 starts
🔹 Dean Kremer (BAL): 8-8, 4.35 ERA – elite contact suppression metrics
🔍 Seattle's riding a 10-game heater behind elite pitching and top AL road OBP (.337). Baltimore’s offense has slumped and ranks near the bottom in walk rate. Kirby’s strikeout bump and Kremer’s control suggest a tight game.
💰 Odds: Mariners -175, Orioles +143 | Total: 9.0
Philadelphia Phillies (69-49) @ Cincinnati Reds (62-58) – 6:40 PM
🔥 Top Pick: Phillies ML (-156)
🔹 Ranger Suárez (PHI): 8-5, 2.94 ERA – 2.12 ERA vs CIN in 9 starts
🔹 Brady Singer (CIN): 9-9, 4.53 ERA – allowed 11 hits in only prior PHI start
🔍 Philly has the best road starter ERA (2.82) in MLB and has won 8 of 10. Suárez ranks in the 99th percentile in exit velocity and has owned Cincy.
💰 Odds: Phillies -156, Reds +127 | Total: 9.5
Miami Marlins (57-61) @ Cleveland Guardians (61-56) – 6:40 PM
✅ Best Bet: Under 9.0 (-120)
🔹 Janson Junk (MIA): 6-2, 3.97 ERA – just 8 BB in 70.1 IP
🔹 Logan Allen (CLE): 7-9, 3.96 ERA – 3.40 ERA at home
🔍 Cleveland has won 9 of 11 behind a strong bullpen and faces Junk’s excellent command. With both offenses in the bottom third in runs scored, the Under looks strong.
💰 Odds: Guardians -136, Marlins +112 | Total: 9.0
Minnesota Twins (56-62) @ New York Yankees (63-56) – 7:05 PM
✅ Best Bet: Under 9.0 (-105)
🔹 Twins SP: Bullpen game (4.36 ERA, .263 BAA)
🔹 Carlos Rodón (NYY): 11-7, 3.35 ERA – 3.00 ERA at home
🔍 Rodón's 17 of 24 starts have stayed under 9 runs, and Minnesota’s bullpen, while shaky, hasn’t been implosive. The Yankees' patient approach could slow the game down.
💰 Odds: Yankees -259, Twins +207 | Total: 9.0
Chicago Cubs (67-50) @ Toronto Blue Jays (69-50) – 7:07 PM
✅ Best Bet: Over 9.0 (-111)
🔹 Ben Brown (CHC): 5-7, 6.04 ERA – 6.29 ERA on road
🔹 José Berríos (TOR): 8-4, 3.89 ERA – 6.20 ERA in 4 starts vs CHC
🔍 Cubs lead MLB in road slugging (.455), and Toronto has the AL's top home batting average (.271). This sets up for runs on both sides.
💰 Odds: Blue Jays -125, Cubs +103 | Total: 9.0
Atlanta Braves (51-67) @ New York Mets (63-55) – 7:10 PM
✅ Best Bet: Under 8.0 (-106)
🔹 Spencer Strider (ATL): 5-9, 4.04 ERA – 98 SO in 82 IP
🔹 Clay Holmes (NYM): 9-6, 3.46 ERA – 7 of last 8 overs on outs line
🔍 The Mets have lost 7 straight and average under 4 runs/game in that stretch. Holmes and Strider should keep bats in check, especially with both teams struggling offensively.
💰 Odds: Mets -144, Braves +118 | Total: 8.0
Washington Nationals (47-71) @ Kansas City Royals (59-60) – 7:40 PM
✅ Best Bet: Under 9.0 (-118)
🔹 Mitchell Parker (WSH): 7-12, 5.43 ERA – shaky control
🔹 Michael Wacha (KC): 6-9, 3.36 ERA – 2 ER in last outing
🔍 Washington has MLB’s worst bullpen ERA (5.79), but their bats have gone quiet. With Wacha dealing and KC’s offense middling, Under is a safe lean.
💰 Odds: Royals -199, Nationals +162 | Total: 9.0
Detroit Tigers (69-51) @ Chicago White Sox (43-76) – 7:40 PM
🔥 Top Pick: Over 8.5 (-112)
🔹 Jack Flaherty (DET): 6-11, 4.56 ERA – 1.54 ERA vs CHW this year
🔹 White Sox SP: TBD
🔍 Detroit mashes lefties (.436 SLG, 4th in MLB), and the White Sox are down bad at .228 team AVG (worst in MLB). Flaherty’s success vs CHW offsets Sox pitching uncertainty, but expect runs.
💰 Odds: Tigers -182, White Sox +148 | Total: 8.5
Pittsburgh Pirates (51-69) @ Milwaukee Brewers (74-44) – 7:40 PM
🔥 Top Pick: Under 6.5 (+102)
🔹 Paul Skenes (PIT): 7-8, 1.94 ERA – MLB ERA & FIP leader
🔹 Freddy Peralta (MIL): 13-5, 3.03 ERA – 141 SO
🔍 Both aces are dealing, and Pirates have MLB's lowest slugging vs RHP (.348). With Milwaukee on a 10-game win streak and Skenes blanking 5 of his last 7 opponents, this has shutdown written all over it.
💰 Odds: Brewers -132, Pirates +108 | Total: 6.5
Colorado Rockies (30-88) @ St. Louis Cardinals (61-59) – 7:45 PM
✅ Best Bet: Over 8.5 (-105)
🔹 Kyle Freeland (COL): 2-12, 5.53 ERA – opponents hitting .317 off COL starters
🔹 Matthew Liberatore (STL): 6-9, 3.98 ERA – just 5 Ks in last 3 starts
🔍 Rockies rank top-5 in OPS vs LHP since June and project 9 righties vs Liberatore. Both rotations rank near the bottom in opponent AVG and ERA.
💰 Odds: Cardinals -191, Rockies +156 | Total: 8.5
Arizona Diamondbacks (57-62) @ Texas Rangers (61-59) – 8:05 PM
✅ Best Bet: Over 8.5 (-115)
🔹 Anthony DeSclafani (ARI): 1-2, 4.20 ERA – 5 scoreless outings this season
🔹 Jack Leiter (TEX): 7-6, 4.05 ERA – 5 quality starts in 20 appearances
🔍 D-backs lead MLB in SLG (.458) vs RHP and posted 3 HRs Monday. Arizona’s bullpen ranks worst in MLB in late-game ERA.
💰 Odds: Rangers -149, Diamondbacks +123 | Total: 8.5
Boston Red Sox (65-55) @ Houston Astros (67-52) – 8:10 PM
✅ Best Bet: Over 8.5 (-102)
🔹 Dustin May (BOS): 6-8, 4.93 ERA – 5.66 ERA since early season
🔹 Spencer Arrighetti (HOU): 1-2, 7.43 ERA – 11 H in last start
🔍 Two struggling arms face two of MLB’s hottest lineups. With both teams top-10 in OPS over last 15 days, expect fireworks.
💰 Odds: Astros -116, Red Sox -104 | Total: 8.5
Los Angeles Dodgers (68-51) @ Los Angeles Angels (57-62) – 9:38 PM
✅ Best Bet: Over 10.0 (-106)
🔹 Emmet Sheehan (LAD): 3-2, 3.00 ERA – solid in limited action
🔹 Victor Mederos (LAA): 0-0, 4.50 ERA – bullpen game incoming
🔍 Dodgers bats, led by red-hot Ohtani, should feast on an Angels bullpen with a 4.86 ERA (27th in MLB). LAA has outscored LAD 30-19 this year.
💰 Odds: Dodgers -192, Angels +156 | Total: 10.0
San Diego Padres (67-52) @ San Francisco Giants (59-60) – 9:45 PM
✅ Best Bet: Under 7.5 (-109)
🔹 Nestor Cortes (SD): 1-1, 7.11 ERA – decent in SD debut
🔹 Robbie Ray (SF): 9-5, 2.85 ERA – 2 ER or less in 5 of last 6
🔍 Giants are batting .211 vs LHP (worst in MLB), and 4 of last 5 matchups at Oracle have gone Under. Ray’s been sharp, and both teams struggle vs lefties.
💰 Odds: Giants -120, Padres -102 | Total: 7.5
Tampa Bay Rays (58-62) @ Oakland Athletics (53-68) – 10:05 PM
✅ Best Bet: Under 10.0 (-114)
🔹 Shane Baz (TB): 8-8, 4.92 ERA – 21 HR allowed in 23 starts
🔹 Jacob Lopez (OAK): 5-6, 3.59 ERA – 17 scoreless IP in last 3 starts
🔍 Monday’s 11-run game skewed this line, but Lopez has been lights out, and Baz hasn’t allowed double-digit totals often. With both pens trending opposite directions, the Under has value.
💰 Odds: Athletics -113, Rays -108 | Total: 10.0
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