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🔥 Top Picks
Brewers ML (-207) vs Pirates – 7:40 PM ET
Jose Quintana’s been a model of consistency at home with a 3.22 ERA, while Andrew Heaney has been torched on the road (6.55 ERA, 2.3 HR/9). Milwaukee’s won nine straight and averages 5.8 runs in that span — strong edge to keep rolling.
Yankees/Twins Over 9.0 (-102) – 7:05 PM ET
Zebby Matthews has allowed opponents to hit .294 and 3+ ER in five of his last six starts. Aaron Judge owns a career .337 average and 14 HR vs Minnesota, and the Twins have won four of five entering this one.
Tigers/White Sox Over 8.5 (-119) – 7:40 PM ET
Elvis Peguero makes his first MLB start for Chicago, facing a Detroit lineup that’s top-3 in MLB OPS vs LHP. Combined with Paddack’s 5.75 ERA lifetime vs the Sox and Chicago pitchers’ league-worst walk rate, expect plenty of baserunners.
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⚾ Game Previews
Philadelphia Phillies (68-49, .581) @ Cincinnati Reds (62-57, .521) – 6:10 PM
✅ Best Bet: Over 9.5 (-113)
🔹 Taijuan Walker (PHI): 4-5, 3.53 ERA, 60 SO — coming off 6 scoreless vs BAL
🔹 Andrew Abbott (CIN): 8-2, 2.34 ERA, 99 SO — 1.13 WHIP this season
🔍 Phillies starters lead MLB with a 2.84 road ERA, but both offenses bring proven power bats in Bryce Harper and Elly De La Cruz. With Cincy’s .318 OBP and Philadelphia’s ninth-ranked .418 SLG, run production potential is high.
💰 Odds: Reds -126, Phillies +104 | Total: 9.5
Minnesota Twins (56-61, .479) @ New York Yankees (62-56, .525) – 7:05 PM
🔥 Top Pick: Over 9.0 (-102)
🔹 Zebby Matthews (MIN): 3-3, 5.17 ERA, 48 SO — .294 opp. AVG
🔹 Will Warren (NYY): 6-5, 4.44 ERA, 133 SO — 3.18 ERA in last 4 starts
🔍 Yankees have dropped 7 of 9 while scoring 3.9 R/G, but Matthews’ contact issues and Judge’s track record vs Minnesota set up a hitter-friendly matchup. Twins enter having won four of their last five games.
💰 Odds: Yankees -184, Twins +150 | Total: 9.0
Washington Nationals (47-70, .402) @ Kansas City Royals (58-60, .492) – 7:40 PM
✅ Best Bet: Under 9.0 (-121)
🔹 Cade Cavalli (WSH): 0-0, 0.00 ERA, 6 SO — 4.1 shutout IP in debut
🔹 Bailey Falter (KC): 7-6, 4.14 ERA, 72 SO — 7 ER in Royals debut
🔍 Cavalli’s 98 mph fastball and Kauffman’s spacious gaps could keep this low-scoring. Royals average 3.68 R/G at home, and Washington’s bullpen owns MLB’s highest ERA (5.81).
💰 Odds: Royals -155, Nationals +127 | Total: 9.0
Detroit Tigers (68-51, .571) @ Chicago White Sox (43-75, .364) – 7:40 PM
🔥 Top Pick: Over 8.5 (-119)
🔹 Chris Paddack (DET): 4-10, 4.91 ERA, 88 SO — 5.75 ERA career vs CWS
🔹 Elvis Peguero (CWS): 0-0, 4.91 ERA — first MLB start
🔍 Detroit ranks third in MLB OPS vs LHP (.766) and faces a first-time starter. Chicago pitchers lead the league in walk rate (10%), which could extend innings.
💰 Odds: Tigers -148, White Sox +122 | Total: 8.5
Pittsburgh Pirates (51-68, .429) @ Milwaukee Brewers (73-44, .624) – 7:40 PM
🔥 Top Pick: Brewers ML (-207)
🔹 Andrew Heaney (PIT): 5-9, 4.77 ERA — 6.55 road ERA, 2.3 HR/9 away
🔹 Jose Quintana (MIL): 9-4, 3.57 ERA — 3.22 home ERA
🔍 Brewers have won nine straight, scoring 5.8 runs a game. Pirates own the worst OPS in MLB vs RHP (.655) and face a locked-in Isaac Collins (.387 AVG since the break).
💰 Odds: Brewers -207, Pirates +168 | Total: 8.5
Colorado Rockies (30-87, .256) @ St. Louis Cardinals (60-59, .504) – 7:45 PM
✅ Best Bet: Over 8.5 (-119)
🔹 Chase Dollander (COL): MLB debut — 23-year-old RHP
🔹 Miles Mikolas (STL): 6-9, 5.11 ERA — 5 ER in last start
🔍 Rockies starters have MLB’s worst ERA (6.52), and Mikolas has mixed results this year. With both pitchers hittable, a higher-scoring game is likely.
💰 Odds: Cardinals -219, Rockies +177 | Total: 8.5
Arizona Diamondbacks (57-61, .483) @ Texas Rangers (60-59, .504) – 8:05 PM
✅ Best Bet: Under 7.5 (-108)
🔹 Ryne Nelson (ARI): 6-3, 3.20 ERA — 1.05 WHIP
🔹 Nathan Eovaldi (TEX): 10-3, 1.38 ERA — 111 SO, 20 BB, 5 HR allowed in 111 IP
🔍 Arizona leads MLB with a .784 OPS vs RHP, but Eovaldi’s dominance (1.38 ERA) and Texas’ recent scoring drought — just 5 runs in 3 games — point to a low-run game.
💰 Odds: Rangers -168, D-backs +138 | Total: 7.5
Boston Red Sox (65-54, .546) @ Houston Astros (66-52, .559) – 8:10 PM
✅ Best Bet: Under 7.5 (-119)
🔹 Garrett Crochet (BOS): 13-4, 2.24 ERA, 183 SO — 7 IP, 2 ER in last start
🔹 Cristian Javier (HOU): first start since May 2024, likely pitch limit
🔍 Boston swept Houston earlier this year, but the Astros’ bullpen (.212 opp AVG, best in MLB) plus Javier’s return could keep scoring down.
💰 Odds: Red Sox -175, Astros +143 | Total: 7.5
Los Angeles Dodgers (68-50, .576) @ Los Angeles Angels (56-62, .475) – 9:38 PM
✅ Best Bet: Under 8.5 (-119)
🔹 Yoshinobu Yamamoto (LAD): 10-7, 2.51 ERA — 1.63 road ERA
🔹 José Soriano (LAA): 7-9, 4.01 ERA — 5.56 home ERA
🔍 Shohei Ohtani returns to Angel Stadium for the first time since signing with the Dodgers. Angels lead MLB in strikeout rate (26%), which could play into Yamamoto’s hands.
💰 Odds: Dodgers -181, Angels +148 | Total: 8.5
San Diego Padres (66-52, .559) @ San Francisco Giants (59-59, .500) – 9:45 PM
✅ Best Bet: Under 7.5 (-122)
🔹 Yu Darvish (SD): 1-3, 6.51 ERA — 10.22 road ERA
🔹 Logan Webb (SF): 10-8, 3.24 ERA — 2.78 home ERA
🔍 Padres hitters have slugged just .387 vs RHP (5th-worst in MLB), favoring Webb’s ability to limit damage. The Under has hit in three of the last four meetings.
💰 Odds: Giants -144, Padres +118 | Total: 7.5
Tampa Bay Rays (57-62, .479) @ Oakland Athletics (53-67, .442) – 10:05 PM
✅ Best Bet: Over 9.5 (-115)
🔹 Ryan Pepiot (TB): 7-9, 3.77 ERA — 5.44 ERA over last 8 starts
🔹 Jeffrey Springs (OAK): 10-7, 3.89 ERA — 2.00 ERA last 3 starts
🔍 Tampa Bay has lost 14 of its last 17 road games, and Oakland’s bullpen has a 5.14 ERA. Springs faces his former team, adding intrigue to a matchup where late scoring is possible.
💰 Odds: Athletics -113, Rays -108 | Total: 9.5
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