Today's MLB Rundown + Best Bets

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Tigers/Phillies Over 7.5 (-115) – 6:45 PM
Jack Flaherty’s road ERA balloons to 6.28, and Citizens Bank Park punishes hard-hit rates like his. Detroit mashes lefties (.773 OPS), and Philly’s bats are dangerous at home. Expect runs.

Brewers ML (-155) @ Nationals – 6:45 PM
Jose Quintana owns a 1.91 ERA in eight career starts vs Washington, while Mitchell Parker has a 9.53 ERA in three career outings against Milwaukee. The Brewers swept the Nats earlier and should keep rolling.

Padres/Cardinals Under 7.5 (-112) – 9:40 PM
Nick Pivetta’s 2.07 ERA at Petco pairs with the park’s 0.889 run factor to favor low scoring. St. Louis struggles on the road (1-4 last five), and San Diego has gone under in 28 of 47 home games.

✅ Best Bet: Under 9.5 (-122)
🔹 Bryce Elder (ATL): 4-7, 6.29 ERA — 20% HR/FB rate makes every fly ball dangerous
🔹 Brady Singer (CIN): 8-8, 4.60 ERA — coming off 7⅓ IP gem vs Tampa
🔍 Yesterday’s slugfest (23 runs) was an outlier. Elder’s contact issues meet Singer’s recent form, but expect fewer fireworks today.
💰 Odds: Braves +113, Reds -137 | Total: 9.5

✅ Best Bet: Over 7.0 (-121)
🔹 Trevor Rogers (BAL): 4-1, 1.49 ERA — five straight quality starts
🔹 Cade Horton (CHC): 4-3, 3.67 ERA — back-to-back scoreless outings
🔍 Despite strong starting arms, Chicago’s offense leads MLB in runs (570) and Baltimore’s rotation owns a 5.07 ERA. Runs could pile up late.
💰 Odds: Orioles +128, Cubs -157 | Total: 7.0

🔥 Top Pick: Over 7.5 (-115)
🔹 Jack Flaherty (DET): 6-10, 4.51 ERA — 6.28 road ERA vs 3.38 home ERA
🔹 Ranger Suárez (PHI): 8-4, 2.59 ERA — steady command and control at home
🔍 Detroit’s four-game win streak meets Philly’s home-field edge. With Flaherty’s hard-hit issues and both lineups capable, the over has value.
💰 Odds: Tigers +128, Phillies -156 | Total: 7.5

🔥 Top Pick: Brewers ML (-155)
🔹 Jose Quintana (MIL): 7-4, 3.50 ERA — 4-1, 1.91 ERA career vs Washington
🔹 Mitchell Parker (WSH): 7-10, 4.91 ERA — 9.53 ERA in three career starts vs Milwaukee
🔍 Milwaukee dominates Washington historically and boasts MLB’s top winning percentage. The Nats’ bullpen (5.58 ERA) remains a liability.
💰 Odds: Brewers -155, Nationals +127 | Total: 8.5

✅ Best Bet: Under 8.0 (-110)
🔹 Michael Wacha (KC): 4-9, 3.53 ERA — nine quality starts this year
🔹 Blue Jays SP: TBD
🔍 With Wacha limiting damage and both teams’ pitchers holding opponents under .700 OPS, the total trends under barring an offensive outburst.
💰 Odds: Royals +129, Blue Jays -157 | Total: 8.0

✅ Best Bet: Under 8.0 (-110)
🔹 Hunter Brown (HOU): 9-5, 2.54 ERA — 5-2, 2.70 ERA on the road
🔹 Red Sox SP: TBD
🔍 Brown’s road dominance and Boston’s unknown starter suggest a low-scoring edge. Houston’s lineup upgrades may tilt the game, but the under holds.
💰 Odds: Astros -137, Red Sox +112 | Total: 8.0

✅ Best Bet: Over 7.5 (-101)
🔹 Robbie Ray (SF): 9-5, 2.93 ERA — solid but faces tough matchup
🔹 David Peterson (NYM): 7-4, 2.83 ERA — 1.91 home ERA
🔍 Mets have won 7 of 10, Giants have lost six straight. Both pitchers are sharp, but New York’s bats could break through late.
💰 Odds: Giants +122, Mets -149 | Total: 7.5

✅ Best Bet: Over 7.0 (-110)
🔹 Joe Ryan (MIN): 10-5, 2.82 ERA — shaky last start (4 ER vs WSH)
🔹 Gavin Williams (CLE): 6-4, 3.51 ERA — 3-2 career vs Twins
🔍 With Minnesota’s depleted roster and Cleveland’s shaky walk rates (9%), runs may sneak across. Recent form points to the over.
💰 Odds: Twins +104, Guardians -126 | Total: 7.0

✅ Best Bet: Under 8.0 (-119)
🔹 Carlos Rodón (NYY): 11-7, 3.18 ERA — 2.12 ERA vs Miami
🔹 Janson Junk (MIA): 5-2, 3.28 ERA — rough career vs Yankees
🔍 Miami’s offense ranks 20th, and New York is without Judge. This has pitchers’ duel written all over it.
💰 Odds: Yankees -176, Marlins +144 | Total: 8.0

✅ Best Bet: Over 9.0 (-107)
🔹 Clayton Kershaw (LAD): 4-2, 3.62 ERA — vulnerable last outing (4 ER)
🔹 Shane Baz (TB): 8-7, 4.61 ERA — allows hard contact
🔍 Dodgers’ .505 slugging with RISP meets Baz’s inconsistency. Tampa’s slump might not matter with LA’s bats primed to rake.
💰 Odds: Dodgers -132, Rays +108 | Total: 9.0

✅ Best Bet: Over 11.5 (-115)
🔹 Andrew Heaney (PIT): 5-9, 4.79 ERA — allows 3+ ER often
🔹 Antonio Senzatela (COL): 4-14, 6.68 ERA — MLB-high 14 losses
🔍 Coors Field plus two struggling starters equals fireworks. Both staffs allow runs in bunches.
💰 Odds: Pirates -143, Rockies +118 | Total: 11.5

✅ Best Bet: Under 9.5 (-121)
🔹 White Sox SP: TBD (Shane Smith expected)
🔹 Tyler Anderson (LAA): 2-6, 4.41 ERA — winless in last 17 starts
🔍 Chicago’s offense struggles (.224 vs RHP), and LA ranks bottom-third in scoring. Even with pitching uncertainties, runs should be limited.
💰 Odds: White Sox +112, Angels -137 | Total: 9.5

🔥 Top Pick: Under 7.5 (-112)
🔹 Matthew Liberatore (STL): 6-8, 4.04 ERA — decent last outing vs SD
🔹 Nick Pivetta (SD): 10-3, 2.81 ERA — 2.07 ERA at home
🔍 Petco’s pitcher-friendly environment pairs with Pivetta’s dominance to favor the under. Cards’ road struggles add to the case.
💰 Odds: Cardinals +154, Padres -189 | Total: 7.5

✅ Best Bet: Over 9.5 (-110)
🔹 Merrill Kelly (ARI): 9-6, 3.22 ERA — faces weak Oakland pen
🔹 Athletics SP: TBD (Jacob Lopez expected)
🔍 Both bullpens are shaky (Oakland 5.05 ERA, Arizona late relief 5.58). Offensive edge tilts this total high.
💰 Odds: Diamondbacks +104, Athletics -126 | Total: 9.5

✅ Best Bet: Under 7.5 (-110)
🔹 Jack Leiter (TEX): 7-6, 4.09 ERA — 4.4 BB/9, prone to HRs
🔹 Logan Gilbert (SEA): 3-4, 3.36 ERA — 2.77 ERA at home
🔍 T-Mobile Park suppresses runs, and the Mariners have gone under in 7 of 10 vs Texas here. Gilbert holds the key edge.
💰 Odds: Rangers +156, Mariners -192 | Total: 7.5

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