Today's MLB Rundown + Best Bets

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Tigers ML (-238) @ Guardians – 1:40 PM ET
Tarik Skubal (10-2, 2.15 ERA) has been lights-out, and Detroit is 39-4 when out-hitting opponents. Cleveland’s offense is ice-cold, batting just .179 over their last 10.

Brewers/Marlins Over 8.0 (-110) – 1:40 PM ET
Woodruff returns from the IL, and Miami has surged to 8-2 with a .268 average recently. Cabrera has been solid, but both lineups have been hot enough to push this over.

Pirates/Mariners Under 6.5 (-119) – 4:10 PM ET
Paul Skenes (2.03 ERA) and Pittsburgh’s woeful road offense (.590 OPS) against George Kirby’s control make this a strong under spot in a low-total game.

All times EDT

✅ Best Bet: Over 9.0 (-102)
🔹 Trevor Rogers (BAL): 1-0, 2.05 ERA — sharp in limited innings
🔹 Grant Holmes (ATL): 4-7, 3.47 ERA — high workload, 113 Ks
🔍 Orioles have won two straight over Atlanta and aim for the sweep. Both lineups showed pop Saturday in a 9-6 game, and Orioles’ rotation has MLB’s second-worst ERA this year.
💰 Odds: Braves -156, Orioles +128 | Total: 9.0

✅ Best Bet: Over 8.0 (-120)
🔹 Garrett Crochet (BOS): 8-4, 2.34 ERA — 11 quality starts
🔹 Shinnosuke Ogasawara (WSH): MLB debut
🔍 Boston’s offense exploded for 21 runs in two games against MLB’s worst bullpen. The rookie starter faces a hot Red Sox lineup led by Roman Anthony.
💰 Odds: Red Sox -273, Nationals +217 | Total: 8.0

✅ Best Bet: Under 8.5 (-102)
🔹 Chase Burns (CIN): 0-1, 13.50 ERA — rough debut
🔹 Zack Wheeler (PHI): 8-3, 2.27 ERA — 136 Ks, dominant
🔍 Wheeler’s strikeout-heavy profile and Reds’ struggles vs. righties make the under appealing despite Philly’s big bats.
💰 Odds: Phillies -231, Reds +186 | Total: 8.5

✅ Best Bet: Over 9.5 (-108)
🔹 Tyler Anderson (LAA): 2-5, 4.12 ERA — career struggles vs TOR
🔹 Kevin Gausman (TOR): 6-6, 4.18 ERA — excellent history vs Angels
🔍 Blue Jays are on a 7-game win streak, averaging nearly 5 runs/game. Springer’s bat is scorching hot, while Angels’ offense struggles with two strikes.
💰 Odds: Blue Jays -196, Angels +160 | Total: 9.5

🔥 Top Pick: Tigers ML (-238)
🔹 Tarik Skubal (DET): 10-2, 2.15 ERA — dominant, .196 BAA
🔹 Gavin Williams (CLE): 5-4, 3.86 ERA — decent, little run support
🔍 Tigers are 6-4 in their last 10 and feast on lefties. Cleveland’s 8-game skid and .179 average make Skubal a clear edge.
💰 Odds: Tigers -238, Guardians +191 | Total: 7.5

✅ Best Bet: Under 9.0 (-115)
🔹 Max Fried (NYY): 10-2, 2.13 ERA — 13 quality starts
🔹 Chris Devenski (NYM): 0-0, 3.38 ERA — spot start
🔍 Yankees have lost 6 straight while the Mets have been slightly better, but Fried vs. a struggling lineup points to a low score.
💰 Odds: Yankees -200, Mets +162 | Total: 9.0

🔥 Top Pick: Over 8.0 (-110)
🔹 Brandon Woodruff (MIL): returning from IL
🔹 Edward Cabrera (MIA): 3-2, 3.41 ERA — steady
🔍 Miami is 8-2 in their last 10, while Milwaukee counters with an uncertain Woodruff. Both lineups have shown offensive life lately.
💰 Odds: Brewers -115, Marlins -106 | Total: 8.0

✅ Best Bet: Under 8.0 (-112)
🔹 Drew Rasmussen (TB): 7-5, 2.78 ERA — strong 1.00 WHIP
🔹 Joe Ryan (MIN): 8-4, 2.75 ERA — excels at home
🔍 Both starters are dealing, and Minnesota’s bullpen has limited division foes to a .210 average. Could be a pitching duel.
💰 Odds: Twins -130, Rays +107 | Total: 8.0

✅ Best Bet: Under 11.0 (-108)
🔹 Shane Smith (CWS): 3-6, 3.86 ERA — 3.60 road ERA
🔹 Chase Dollander (COL): 2-9, 6.65 ERA — brutal at Coors
🔍 Rockies have MLB’s lowest win % and struggle at home, while White Sox pitching has improved of late.
💰 Odds: White Sox -113, Rockies -108 | Total: 11.0

✅ Best Bet: Under 9.5 (-115)
🔹 Michael Lorenzen (KC): 4-8, 4.95 ERA — inconsistent
🔹 Anthony DeSclafani (ARI): 0-0, 4.82 ERA — first start of year
🔍 Royals hitters make contact (19% K rate), and D-backs’ bullpen struggles vs. righties. Both teams have slumped offensively.
💰 Odds: D-backs -156, Royals +128 | Total: 9.5

✅ Best Bet: Over 9.0 (-115)
🔹 TBD (HOU):
🔹 Emmet Sheehan (LAD): 0-0, 2.25 ERA — just second start
🔍 Astros won first two games by a combined 24-5. Both offenses are clicking, and the over has hit in five of their last seven matchups.
💰 Odds: Dodgers -199, Astros +162 | Total: 9.0

🔥 Top Pick: Under 6.5 (-119)
🔹 Paul Skenes (PIT): 4-7, 2.03 ERA — dominant rookie
🔹 George Kirby (SEA): 2-4, 4.85 ERA — inconsistent
🔍 Mariners thrive when scoring five+, but Pittsburgh’s offense is dead last in road OPS (.590). Skenes could stifle them enough to stay under.
💰 Odds: Mariners -115, Pirates -106 | Total: 6.5

✅ Best Bet: Under 7.5 (-119)
🔹 Erick Fedde (STL): 3-8, 4.56 ERA — winless since May
🔹 Matthew Boyd (CHC): 8-3, 2.65 ERA — 7-1 since late April
🔍 Cubs are hot at Wrigley with Boyd anchoring the staff. St. Louis bats have been quiet lately, making this a likely low-scoring affair.
💰 Odds: Cubs -207, Cardinals +168 | Total: 7.5

✅ Best Bet: Under 8.5 (-110)
🔹 Jack Leiter (TEX): 4-5, 4.29 ERA — struggles in decisions
🔹 TBD (SD):
🔍 Padres and Rangers both trend under in interleague play, and both bullpens rank top-5 in ERA. Offenses may stay quiet.
💰 Odds: Padres -137, Rangers +112 | Total: 8.5

✅ Best Bet: Over 10.0 (-115)
🔹 Hayden Birdsong (SF): 3-3, 4.30 ERA — average form
🔹 Jacob Lopez (OAK): 2-4, 3.88 ERA — decent vs. righties
🔍 Giants struggle vs. lefties (.212 average), but both staffs have been giving up homers. High total makes sense in a hitter-friendly park.
💰 Odds: Athletics -115, Giants -105 | Total: 10.0

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