Today's MLB Rundown + Best Bets

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Tigers/Guardians Under 9 (-106) – 7:15 PM ET
Casey Mize has allowed more than two runs just once in his last five starts, and Cleveland's offense ranks 28th in MLB and enters on an eight-game skid. Logan Allen also struggles vs Detroit, but the Guardians' bats remain cold.

Yankees/Mets Over 9 (-105) – 4:10 PM ET
Rodón is sharp, but the Yankees have given up 42 runs during their five-game losing streak, and Montas has allowed 12 runs in his last two starts. Both offenses are alive, and trends support the Over.

Brewers/Marlins Over 8.5 (-112) – 4:10 PM ET
Cal Quantrill’s 5.42 ERA and six straight starts allowing multiple runs set this up well. Brewers are hot, road bats are much better than at home, and sharp money is backing the Over.

All times EDT

✅ Best Bet: Over 9.5 (-108)
🔹 Taj Bradley (TB): 5-6, 4.79 ERA — 3.60 ERA in last 3 vs Minnesota
🔹 Cole Sands (MIN): 3-3, 4.63 ERA — bullpen game possible if Sands isn’t ready
🔍 Rays’ offense ranks top-8 in OPS while Minnesota’s bullpen ranks bottom-half in ERA. Revenge game for Caminero fuels Tampa.
💰 Odds: Rays -126, Twins +104 | Total: 9.5

✅ Best Bet: Under 11.0 (-121)
🔹 Matthew Liberatore (STL): 6-6, 3.70 ERA — 3 straight quality starts
🔹 Drew Pomeranz (CHC): 2-1, 0.00 ERA — 23.1 IP without an earned run
🔍 Cubs demolished St. Louis yesterday with 8 HRs, but both lefties on the mound have been sharp. Cardinals’ offense slumping.
💰 Odds: Cubs -157, Cardinals +129 | Total: 11.0

✅ Best Bet: Under 9.0 (-101)
🔹 Jack Kochanowicz (LAA): 3-8, 5.44 ERA — struggled with consistency
🔹 Max Scherzer (TOR): 0-0, 4.85 ERA — on pitch count in 3rd start back
🔍 Toronto rides a 6-game win streak; Angels’ high K rate and Scherzer’s limited innings favor a low-scoring contest.
💰 Odds: Blue Jays -189, Angels +154 | Total: 9.0

✅ Best Bet: Over 10.0 (-103)
🔹 Walker Buehler (BOS): 5-6, 6.45 ERA — 10.37 ERA over last 6 starts
🔹 Mitchell Parker (WSH): 5-8, 4.63 ERA — steady but unspectacular
🔍 Both bullpens shaky, Buehler pitching for his spot with poor recent form. Story & Duran hot for Boston.
💰 Odds: Red Sox -108, Nationals -113 | Total: 10.0

✅ Best Bet: Under 8.5 (-101)
🔹 Nick Lodolo (CIN): 5-5, 3.52 ERA — 2.76 ERA vs PHI in 5 starts
🔹 Ranger Suárez (PHI): 7-2, 2.00 ERA — 0.99 ERA over last 8 starts
🔍 Both starters are in top form; Reds’ .223 average vs lefties sets up a tight, low-scoring affair.
💰 Odds: Phillies -180, Reds +146 | Total: 8.5

✅ Best Bet: Under 9.0 (-115)
🔹 Michael Wacha (KC): 4-8, 3.62 ERA — slumping, but veteran presence
🔹 Ryne Nelson (ARI): 4-2, 3.61 ERA — solid last two starts
🔍 Royals & D-backs both excel at avoiding strikeouts; Kansas City’s staff owns 3.47 ERA (2nd-best).
💰 Odds: D-backs -144, Royals +118 | Total: 9.0

✅ Best Bet: Over 8.5 (-115)
🔹 Dean Kremer (BAL): 7-7, 4.27 ERA — great last start, HR-prone
🔹 Aaron Bummer (ATL): 1-1, 2.86 ERA — first start of season, likely short outing
🔍 Both bullpens are depleted, both offenses feature hot hitters (Henderson, Olson). Over looks strong here.
💰 Odds: Braves -150, Orioles +123 | Total: 8.5

🔥 Top Pick: Over 9.0 (-105)
🔹 Carlos Rodón (NYY): 9-5, 2.95 ERA — 1.15 ERA vs Mets lifetime
🔹 Frankie Montas (NYM): 0-1, 6.00 ERA — gave up 6 runs in 4 IP last start
🔍 Yankees’ offense (Dominguez hot) & Montas’ struggles suggest fireworks. Both teams’ trends point to Over.
💰 Odds: Yankees -143, Mets +118 | Total: 9.0

🔥 Top Pick: Over 8.5 (-112)
🔹 Chad Patrick (MIL): 3-7, 3.51 ERA — steady but hittable
🔹 Cal Quantrill (MIA): 3-7, 5.42 ERA — struggling mightily
🔍 Brewers’ bats travel well; Quantrill has allowed multiple runs in 6 straight starts. Over trend continues.
💰 Odds: Brewers -144, Marlins +119 | Total: 8.5

🔥 Top Pick: Under 9.0 (-106)
🔹 Casey Mize (DET): 8-2, 2.86 ERA — allowed 2 runs or fewer in 4 of last 5
🔹 Logan Allen (CLE): 5-6, 4.27 ERA — poor vs DET, but Guardians’ bats are ice cold
🔍 Tigers’ elite offense vs lefties meets Guardians’ scoring drought & Mize’s consistency.
💰 Odds: Tigers -131, Guardians +107 | Total: 9.0

✅ Best Bet: Over 8.5 (-109)
🔹 Framber Valdez (HOU): 9-4, 2.72 ERA — Astros have won his last 10 starts
🔹 Shohei Ohtani (LAD): 0-0, 2.25 ERA — limited innings, experimental start
🔍 After Astros’ 18-1 rout yesterday & Ohtani likely exiting early, runs should come.
💰 Odds: Dodgers -148, Astros +122 | Total: 8.5

✅ Best Bet: Over 11.0 (-115)
🔹 Jonathan Cannon (CWS): 2-7, 4.59 ERA — shaky
🔹 Germán Márquez (COL): 3-9, 5.62 ERA — struggles at Coors
🔍 Coors Field + two weak starters = runs. Both pens are vulnerable.
💰 Odds: Rockies -119, White Sox -102 | Total: 11.0

✅ Best Bet: Under 8.0 (-108)
🔹 Patrick Corbin (TEX): 4-7, 4.26 ERA — 4 straight starts allowing 3+ runs
🔹 Stephen Kolek (SD): 3-3, 3.73 ERA — solid home performer
🔍 Both teams’ pitching & bullpen strength plus Padres’ home-field edge support Under.
💰 Odds: Padres -133, Rangers +109 | Total: 8.0

✅ Best Bet: Under 9.0 (-102)
🔹 Logan Webb (SF): 7-6, 2.61 ERA — elite
🔹 Luis Severino (OAK): 2-9, 5.09 ERA — struggles
🔍 Giants’ superior pitching (Webb & bullpen) should control a lower-scoring game despite Oakland’s recent offense.
💰 Odds: Giants -181, Athletics +148 | Total: 9.0

✅ Best Bet: Under 7.0 (+102)
🔹 Mike Burrows (PIT): 1-2, 4.15 ERA — Pirates 4-2 ATS in his starts
🔹 Luis Castillo (SEA): 4-5, 3.55 ERA — inconsistent but Pirates offense weak on road
🔍 Pirates’ MLB-worst road OPS meets Mariners’ home hitting struggles.
💰 Odds: Mariners -172, Pirates +141 | Total: 7.0

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