Today's MLB Rundown + Best Bets

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Tigers ML (-122) @ Guardians – 7:10 PM ET
Reese Olson (2.96 ERA) returns from the IL against a Cleveland team batting just .195 in righty-righty matchups and mired in a 7-game skid. Detroit’s offense is clicking (.297 over last 10) and owns MLB’s best numbers vs. lefties.

Brewers ML (-126) @ Marlins – 7:10 PM ET
Quinn Priester (3.35 ERA) has allowed 3 or fewer in 8 straight starts and faces Sandy Alcantara, who’s posted a brutal 6.98 ERA. Even with Miami’s recent surge, Milwaukee’s elite bullpen and RISP dominance should carry the day.

Over 9.5 (-101) Yankees @ Mets – 3:10 PM ET
Both lineups are dangerous, and Marcus Stroman (8.16 ERA) has been shaky since returning. The Yankees’ defensive lapses and the Mets’ .474 OBP Juan Soto make the Over attractive in this crosstown clash.

All times EDT

✅ Best Bet: Over 8.5 (-115)
🔹 Lucas Giolito (BOS): 4-1, 3.99 ERA — 2.15 ERA in 5 road starts
🔹 Michael Soroka (WSH): 3-5, 4.70 ERA — 10 HR allowed in 11 starts
🔍 Both teams have won 3 of their last 5, but Boston’s bullpen (3.61 ERA) is a big edge over Washington’s (5.89). With Giolito solid on the road and James Wood red-hot for the Nats, expect some runs.
💰 Odds: Red Sox -112, Nationals -108 | Total: 8.5

✅ Best Bet: Under 8.0 (-104)
🔹 Andrew Abbott (CIN): 7-1, 1.79 ERA — 1.42 ERA on the road
🔹 Jesús Luzardo (PHI): 7-4, 4.06 ERA — 2.71 ERA at home
🔍 Two lefties in form, with Abbott holding opponents to 2 or fewer in 13 of 15 starts. Both lineups have pop, but Citizens Bank has seen the under cash in Abbott’s road games.
💰 Odds: Phillies -164, Reds +134 | Total: 8.0

✅ Best Bet: Over 10.0 (-105)
🔹 Miles Mikolas (STL): 4-5, 4.76 ERA — 3+ ER in 7 of last 10
🔹 Colin Rea (CHC): 5-3, 4.37 ERA — 3.89 ERA at home
🔍 Cubs are hot at Wrigley and lead the division, while Cardinals have lost 3 straight. Warm weather and winds favor hitters, and both starters are vulnerable.
💰 Odds: Cubs -143, Cardinals +118 | Total: 10.0

🔥 Top Pick: Over 9.5 (-101)
🔹 Marcus Stroman (NYY): 1-1, 8.16 ERA — shaky since return
🔹 Mets SP: TBD
🔍 The Yankees have been in high-scoring games lately, while the Mets are rolling at home with a .700 winning percentage. Both lineups are capable of big innings.
💰 Odds: Mets -133, Yankees +109 | Total: 9.5

✅ Best Bet: Under 7.5 (-115)
🔹 Bailey Falter (PIT): 6-3, 3.62 ERA — solid vs Seattle in past
🔹 Bryan Woo (SEA): 7-4, 2.75 ERA — 96 Ks, great at home
🔍 Pirates have won 6 straight, Mariners have struggled with RISP. T-Mobile Park suppresses runs, and both starters are in form.
💰 Odds: Mariners -187, Pirates +152 | Total: 7.0

✅ Best Bet: Under 9.5 (-102)
🔹 Zack Littell (TB): 7-7, 3.61 ERA — coming off dominant start
🔹 Chris Paddack (MIN): 3-7, 4.70 ERA — won once in last 8
🔍 Rays are chasing AL East lead, while Minnesota has scored just 3 runs in their last 4 games. Tampa’s OPS vs righties gives them a matchup edge.
💰 Odds: Twins -115, Rays -105 | Total: 9.5

✅ Best Bet: Under 8.5 (+100)
🔹 Kumar Rocker (TEX): 3-4, 6.13 ERA — better on the road
🔹 Randy Vásquez (SD): 3-4, 3.84 ERA — excellent at Petco
🔍 Petco Park favors pitchers and both offenses have been inconsistent. Rangers’ bullpen has been one of MLB’s best in OBP allowed.
💰 Odds: Padres -110, Rangers -110 | Total: 8.5

✅ Best Bet: Over 9.5 (-105)
🔹 Angels SP: TBD
🔹 Eric Lauer (TOR): 4-1, 2.60 ERA — sharp at home
🔍 Blue Jays have swept 5 straight with George Springer on fire, while Angels’ bullpen struggles and their OBP with two strikes is the worst in MLB.
💰 Odds: Blue Jays -167, Angels +137 | Total: 9.5

🔥 Top Pick: Tigers ML (-122)
🔹 Reese Olson (DET): 4-3, 2.96 ERA — returning from IL
🔹 Slade Cecconi (CLE): 3-3, 3.64 ERA — 3.00 K/BB ratio
🔍 Detroit is surging while Cleveland has lost 7 straight. Olson’s return and the Tigers’ dominance against lefties set the table for another W.
💰 Odds: Tigers -122, Guardians +100 | Total: 8.0

🔥 Top Pick: Brewers ML (-126)
🔹 Quinn Priester (MIL): 6-2, 3.35 ERA — 8 straight with ≤3 ER
🔹 Sandy Alcantara (MIA): 4-8, 6.98 ERA — 1.48 WHIP
🔍 Milwaukee is steady while Miami has heated up, but the Brewers’ elite RISP pitching and Priester’s consistency give them the edge.
💰 Odds: Brewers -126, Marlins +104 | Total: 8.0

✅ Best Bet: Over 9.0 (-105)
🔹 Charlie Morton (BAL): 4-7, 5.63 ERA — 6.21 ERA on road
🔹 Spencer Strider (ATL): 3-6, 3.86 ERA — excellent at home
🔍 Morton has been battered in 7 of his last 10, while Strider shines at Truist Park. Matt Olson’s bat vs righties gives Atlanta a big edge.
💰 Odds: Braves -180, Orioles +147 | Total: 9.0

✅ Best Bet: Over 11.0 (-107)
🔹 Adrian Houser (CWS): 3-2, 1.90 ERA — dominant but limited sample
🔹 Antonio Senzatela (COL): 3-11, 6.69 ERA — routinely hammered
🔍 Coors Field, bad bullpens, and Senzatela’s struggles should inflate the scoreboard despite Houser’s solid numbers.
💰 Odds: White Sox -127, Rockies +104 | Total: 11.0

✅ Best Bet: Over 9.5 (-101)
🔹 Lance McCullers Jr. (HOU): 1-3, 6.61 ERA — vulnerable to RHH
🔹 Ben Casparius (LAD): 6-2, 3.97 ERA — 2.85 ERA at home
🔍 McCullers has allowed 3+ in 4 of 5 starts, while Dodgers have scored 5+ in 7 of last 10. Offenses should thrive here.
💰 Odds: Dodgers -187, Astros +152 | Total: 9.5

✅ Best Bet: Under 8.5 (-122)
🔹 Kris Bubic (KC): 6-6, 2.25 ERA — strong but cooling off
🔹 Eduardo Rodriguez (ARI): 3-4, 5.13 ERA — better recently
🔍 Royals’ bats have been ice-cold (last in MLB scoring), and both starters have shown flashes of control.
💰 Odds: Diamondbacks -115, Royals -105 | Total: 8.0

✅ Best Bet: Under 10.0 (-106)
🔹 Justin Verlander (SF): 0-5, 4.26 ERA — coming off quality start
🔹 JP Sears (OAK): 6-7, 5.09 ERA — solid last time out
🔍 Both teams have struggled offensively and the Giants rank last in MLB vs lefties (.211). Expect a low-scoring, scrappy game.
💰 Odds: Giants -110, Athletics -110 | Total: 10.0

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