We deliver concise MLB previews with key takeaways for every matchup, so you’re informed without the hassle. Our AI-driven analysis simulates sports traders’ betting strategies to identify the best bets.

We’re most active on Twitter. Reply to this email with your thoughts, bets, or anything else — we respond to every reply.

🔥 Top Picks

Tigers ML (-122) @ Guardians – 7:10 PM ET
Reese Olson (2.96 ERA) returns from the IL against a Cleveland team batting just .195 in righty-righty matchups and mired in a 7-game skid. Detroit’s offense is clicking (.297 over last 10) and owns MLB’s best numbers vs. lefties.

Brewers ML (-126) @ Marlins – 7:10 PM ET
Quinn Priester (3.35 ERA) has allowed 3 or fewer in 8 straight starts and faces Sandy Alcantara, who’s posted a brutal 6.98 ERA. Even with Miami’s recent surge, Milwaukee’s elite bullpen and RISP dominance should carry the day.

Over 9.5 (-101) Yankees @ Mets – 3:10 PM ET
Both lineups are dangerous, and Marcus Stroman (8.16 ERA) has been shaky since returning. The Yankees’ defensive lapses and the Mets’ .474 OBP Juan Soto make the Over attractive in this crosstown clash.

🎯 Boost Your Edge with Novig

Looking for better odds and a smarter way to play? Check out Novig — the #1 Sports Prediction Market in the U.S.

🧠 On Novig, you trade, not bet. That means:

  • You play against other users, not the house

  • You can set your own odds or take the best available

  • You can play with Coins for fun, or trade Cash for the chance to win real rewards

💸 Use code MONTE on your first purchase to get a 50% match up to $25.
Available in 42 states | Must be 21+ | No purchase necessary

Join the future of sports trading → Join Novig

⚾ Game Previews

All times EDT

Boston Red Sox (43-45) @ Washington Nationals (37-50) – 11:05 AM

Best Bet: Over 8.5 (-115)
🔹 Lucas Giolito (BOS): 4-1, 3.99 ERA — 2.15 ERA in 5 road starts
🔹 Michael Soroka (WSH): 3-5, 4.70 ERA — 10 HR allowed in 11 starts
🔍 Both teams have won 3 of their last 5, but Boston’s bullpen (3.61 ERA) is a big edge over Washington’s (5.89). With Giolito solid on the road and James Wood red-hot for the Nats, expect some runs.
💰 Odds: Red Sox -112, Nationals -108 | Total: 8.5

Cincinnati Reds (45-42) @ Philadelphia Phillies (51-36) – 1:05 PM

Best Bet: Under 8.0 (-104)
🔹 Andrew Abbott (CIN): 7-1, 1.79 ERA — 1.42 ERA on the road
🔹 Jesús Luzardo (PHI): 7-4, 4.06 ERA — 2.71 ERA at home
🔍 Two lefties in form, with Abbott holding opponents to 2 or fewer in 13 of 15 starts. Both lineups have pop, but Citizens Bank has seen the under cash in Abbott’s road games.
💰 Odds: Phillies -164, Reds +134 | Total: 8.0

St. Louis Cardinals (47-41) @ Chicago Cubs (52-35) – 2:20 PM

Best Bet: Over 10.0 (-105)
🔹 Miles Mikolas (STL): 4-5, 4.76 ERA — 3+ ER in 7 of last 10
🔹 Colin Rea (CHC): 5-3, 4.37 ERA — 3.89 ERA at home
🔍 Cubs are hot at Wrigley and lead the division, while Cardinals have lost 3 straight. Warm weather and winds favor hitters, and both starters are vulnerable.
💰 Odds: Cubs -143, Cardinals +118 | Total: 10.0

New York Yankees (48-39) @ New York Mets (50-38) – 3:10 PM

🔥 Top Pick: Over 9.5 (-101)
🔹 Marcus Stroman (NYY): 1-1, 8.16 ERA — shaky since return
🔹 Mets SP: TBD
🔍 The Yankees have been in high-scoring games lately, while the Mets are rolling at home with a .700 winning percentage. Both lineups are capable of big innings.
💰 Odds: Mets -133, Yankees +109 | Total: 9.5

Pittsburgh Pirates (38-50) @ Seattle Mariners (45-42) – 4:10 PM

Best Bet: Under 7.5 (-115)
🔹 Bailey Falter (PIT): 6-3, 3.62 ERA — solid vs Seattle in past
🔹 Bryan Woo (SEA): 7-4, 2.75 ERA — 96 Ks, great at home
🔍 Pirates have won 6 straight, Mariners have struggled with RISP. T-Mobile Park suppresses runs, and both starters are in form.
💰 Odds: Mariners -187, Pirates +152 | Total: 7.0

Tampa Bay Rays (48-39) @ Minnesota Twins (41-46) – 4:10 PM

Best Bet: Under 9.5 (-102)
🔹 Zack Littell (TB): 7-7, 3.61 ERA — coming off dominant start
🔹 Chris Paddack (MIN): 3-7, 4.70 ERA — won once in last 8
🔍 Rays are chasing AL East lead, while Minnesota has scored just 3 runs in their last 4 games. Tampa’s OPS vs righties gives them a matchup edge.
💰 Odds: Twins -115, Rays -105 | Total: 9.5

Texas Rangers (43-44) @ San Diego Padres (46-40) – 6:40 PM

Best Bet: Under 8.5 (+100)
🔹 Kumar Rocker (TEX): 3-4, 6.13 ERA — better on the road
🔹 Randy Vásquez (SD): 3-4, 3.84 ERA — excellent at Petco
🔍 Petco Park favors pitchers and both offenses have been inconsistent. Rangers’ bullpen has been one of MLB’s best in OBP allowed.
💰 Odds: Padres -110, Rangers -110 | Total: 8.5

Los Angeles Angels (43-43) @ Toronto Blue Jays (49-38) – 7:07 PM

Best Bet: Over 9.5 (-105)
🔹 Angels SP: TBD
🔹 Eric Lauer (TOR): 4-1, 2.60 ERA — sharp at home
🔍 Blue Jays have swept 5 straight with George Springer on fire, while Angels’ bullpen struggles and their OBP with two strikes is the worst in MLB.
💰 Odds: Blue Jays -167, Angels +137 | Total: 9.5

Detroit Tigers (54-34) @ Cleveland Guardians (40-45) – 7:10 PM

🔥 Top Pick: Tigers ML (-122)
🔹 Reese Olson (DET): 4-3, 2.96 ERA — returning from IL
🔹 Slade Cecconi (CLE): 3-3, 3.64 ERA — 3.00 K/BB ratio
🔍 Detroit is surging while Cleveland has lost 7 straight. Olson’s return and the Tigers’ dominance against lefties set the table for another W.
💰 Odds: Tigers -122, Guardians +100 | Total: 8.0

Milwaukee Brewers (48-39) @ Miami Marlins (39-46) – 7:10 PM

🔥 Top Pick: Brewers ML (-126)
🔹 Quinn Priester (MIL): 6-2, 3.35 ERA — 8 straight with ≤3 ER
🔹 Sandy Alcantara (MIA): 4-8, 6.98 ERA — 1.48 WHIP
🔍 Milwaukee is steady while Miami has heated up, but the Brewers’ elite RISP pitching and Priester’s consistency give them the edge.
💰 Odds: Brewers -126, Marlins +104 | Total: 8.0

Baltimore Orioles (37-49) @ Atlanta Braves (39-47) – 7:15 PM

Best Bet: Over 9.0 (-105)
🔹 Charlie Morton (BAL): 4-7, 5.63 ERA — 6.21 ERA on road
🔹 Spencer Strider (ATL): 3-6, 3.86 ERA — excellent at home
🔍 Morton has been battered in 7 of his last 10, while Strider shines at Truist Park. Matt Olson’s bat vs righties gives Atlanta a big edge.
💰 Odds: Braves -180, Orioles +147 | Total: 9.0

Chicago White Sox (28-59) @ Colorado Rockies (20-67) – 8:10 PM

Best Bet: Over 11.0 (-107)
🔹 Adrian Houser (CWS): 3-2, 1.90 ERA — dominant but limited sample
🔹 Antonio Senzatela (COL): 3-11, 6.69 ERA — routinely hammered
🔍 Coors Field, bad bullpens, and Senzatela’s struggles should inflate the scoreboard despite Houser’s solid numbers.
💰 Odds: White Sox -127, Rockies +104 | Total: 11.0

🎯 Boost Your Betting Research with Jaxon 2.0

Looking to make smarter picks faster? Meet Jaxon 2.0 — Pine Sports’ AI-powered research assistant.

🧠 With Jaxon, you can:

  • Ask game-specific questions and get instant insights

  • Explore player matchups, trends, and prop recommendations

  • Access real data from the last 10 years — no spreadsheets needed

💡 Trusted by bettors, creators, and live broadcasters alike.

💸 Use code MONTE for 25% off your first subscription (Sponsored)
Subscribe now →

Houston Astros (52-35) @ Los Angeles Dodgers (56-32) – 9:10 PM

Best Bet: Over 9.5 (-101)
🔹 Lance McCullers Jr. (HOU): 1-3, 6.61 ERA — vulnerable to RHH
🔹 Ben Casparius (LAD): 6-2, 3.97 ERA — 2.85 ERA at home
🔍 McCullers has allowed 3+ in 4 of 5 starts, while Dodgers have scored 5+ in 7 of last 10. Offenses should thrive here.
💰 Odds: Dodgers -187, Astros +152 | Total: 9.5

Kansas City Royals (41-47) @ Arizona Diamondbacks (43-44) – 9:40 PM

Best Bet: Under 8.5 (-122)
🔹 Kris Bubic (KC): 6-6, 2.25 ERA — strong but cooling off
🔹 Eduardo Rodriguez (ARI): 3-4, 5.13 ERA — better recently
🔍 Royals’ bats have been ice-cold (last in MLB scoring), and both starters have shown flashes of control.
💰 Odds: Diamondbacks -115, Royals -105 | Total: 8.0

San Francisco Giants (47-41) @ Oakland Athletics (36-53) – 10:05 PM

Best Bet: Under 10.0 (-106)
🔹 Justin Verlander (SF): 0-5, 4.26 ERA — coming off quality start
🔹 JP Sears (OAK): 6-7, 5.09 ERA — solid last time out
🔍 Both teams have struggled offensively and the Giants rank last in MLB vs lefties (.211). Expect a low-scoring, scrappy game.
💰 Odds: Giants -110, Athletics -110 | Total: 10.0

👀 New to Monte Carmelo?

Preview every MLB game today with our short-form write-ups. Each newsletter has:

🔮 Best Bets at the top.
📊 Game Previews below.
👀 Plus, we’re building tools to let you experiment on your own - more coming soon…

Are you a sportsbook operator? Reply to this email to discuss integrating our live game write-ups into your platform or explore our B2B site: montecarmelo.info

Does our content and format appeal to you and make you want to read again tomorrow?

We want to hear from you!

Login or Subscribe to participate

Tackle your credit card debt with 0% interest

Pay no interest until nearly 2027 with some of the best hand-picked credit cards this year. They are perfect for anyone looking to pay down their debt, and not add to it! Click here to see what all of the hype is about.

Interested in making your own newsletter? Use the link below to receive a 30-day trial + 20% OFF for 3 months on Beehiiv! Reply to this email, and we’ll even help you get started with AI tips and tricks to jumpstart your journey

Keep Reading

No posts found