Today's MLB Rundown + Best Bets

We deliver concise MLB previews with key takeaways for every matchup, so you’re informed without the hassle. Our AI-driven analysis simulates sports traders’ betting strategies to identify the best bets.

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Tigers/Nationals Over 9.5 (-101) – 6:45 PM ET
Dietrich Enns has just one MLB start since 2017 and Jake Irvin allowed 9 ER his last time out. Add in Washington’s MLB-worst bullpen ERA (5.72) and hard-hit rate, and this game sets up for plenty of runs.

Brewers/Mets Under 8.0 (-103) – 7:10 PM ET
Quintana and Peterson both own 3.30 ERAs and generate grounders in a pitcher-friendly Citi Field. With the Brewers holding MLB’s best RISP defense (.198 BAA), expect a low-scoring duel.

Giants/Diamondbacks Under 8.5 (-118) – 9:40 PM ET
Robbie Ray (2.75 ERA) and Chase Field’s homer-suppressing park factor (0.772 HR) favor the under. Ray has held opponents to ≤2 ER in 7 of 9 starts, and Pfaadt’s home ERA (4.23) is solid.

All times EDT

✅ Best Bet: Over 7.5 (-119)
🔹 David Festa (MIN): 2-2, 5.40 ERA — struggled in lone start vs. MIA (4 R in 4.1 IP)
🔹 Eury Pérez (MIA): 0-2, 6.19 ERA — pitch count still climbing post-TJ
🔍 Miami’s 8-game win streak ended yesterday, but Stowers (.406 in 9-game streak) stays hot. Both pitchers are shaky and bullpens may be needed early.
💰 Odds: Twins -119, Marlins -102 | Total: 7.5

✅ Best Bet: Over 11.0 (-120)
🔹 Brandon Walter (HOU): 1-1, 3.34 ERA — strong command, 9.1 K/9
🔹 Kyle Freeland (COL): 1-9, 5.56 ERA — 7.34 home ERA
🔍 Houston’s won 8 of 9, Rockies are 2-10 in last 12. With Coors Field and Freeland’s struggles, another high-scoring game looms.
💰 Odds: Astros -194, Rockies +157 | Total: 11.0

🔥 Top Pick: Over 9.5 (-101)
🔹 Dietrich Enns (DET): 1-0, 0.00 ERA — only 1 MLB start since 2017
🔹 Jake Irvin (WSH): 6-3, 4.73 ERA — coming off 9 ER outing
🔍 Detroit’s 22 games over .500 with elite numbers vs. lefties (.792 OPS). Washington’s bullpen and hard-hit issues make this a good over spot.
💰 Odds: Tigers -151, Nationals +124 | Total: 9.5

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✅ Best Bet: Under 8.5 (-110)
🔹 Clarke Schmidt (NYY): 4-4, 3.09 ERA — 7 runs allowed in last 32.1 IP
🔹 Chris Bassitt (TOR): 7-4, 4.29 ERA — shaky of late (17 ER in 28 IP)
🔍 Toronto has taken 3 straight over NY, scoring 28 runs this series. Schmidt has been sharp, Rogers Centre suppresses scoring.
💰 Odds: Yankees -127, Blue Jays +104 | Total: 8.5

🔥 Top Pick: Under 8.0 (-103)
🔹 Jose Quintana (MIL): 6-2, 3.30 ERA — limits damage, strong RISP numbers
🔹 David Peterson (NYM): 5-4, 3.30 ERA — but on 3-game losing streak
🔍 Brewers on a 7-3 tear while Mets are 3-7 in last 10. Both pitchers induce grounders at Citi Field, favoring the under.
💰 Odds: Mets -158, Brewers +129 | Total: 8.0

✅ Best Bet: Under 9.0 (-105)
🔹 José Soriano (LAA): 5-5, 3.99 ERA — bounced back after rough start
🔹 Bryce Elder (ATL): 2-5, 5.82 ERA — 18 ER in last 10⅔ IP
🔍 Angels have been scoring but their bullpen is shaky. Elder’s struggles are concerning, but Truist Park dampens runs, leaning under.
💰 Odds: Braves -156, Angels +128 | Total: 9.0

✅ Best Bet: Under 8.5 (-110)
🔹 Luis L. Ortiz (CLE): 4-9, 4.37 ERA — worse on the road (5.18 ERA)
🔹 Cade Horton (CHC): 3-2, 4.80 ERA — better at home (3.38 ERA)
🔍 Cleveland’s lost 6 straight and bats just .197 in RvR matchups. Cubs have won 5 of 7 and Horton faces MLB’s lowest-contact offense.
💰 Odds: Cubs -155, Guardians +127 | Total: 8.5

🔥 Top Pick: Under 8.5 (-118)
🔹 Robbie Ray (SF): 8-3, 2.75 ERA — ≤2 ER in 7 of 9 starts
🔹 Brandon Pfaadt (ARI): 8-5, 5.38 ERA — better at home (4.23 ERA)
🔍 Giants have dropped 8 of 10 but Ray’s elite form and Chase Field’s HR suppression favor a low total. Marte remains hot for Arizona.
💰 Odds: Giants -123, Diamondbacks +101 | Total: 8.5

✅ Best Bet: Under 7.5 (-112)
🔹 Seth Lugo (KC): 5-5, 2.74 ERA — allowed ≤2 ER in 10 of 15 starts
🔹 Bryan Woo (SEA): 7-4, 2.93 ERA — excellent command
🔍 Royals rank last in runs and HRs, while T-Mobile Park is MLB’s most pitcher-friendly park. Both starters are in form.
💰 Odds: Mariners -132, Royals +108 | Total: 7.5

✅ Best Bet: Over 9.0 (-111)
🔹 Aaron Civale (CHW): 1-4, 4.74 ERA — 5.92 road ERA
🔹 Dustin May (LAD): 4-5, 4.68 ERA — allowed ≥3 ER in 4 of last 5
🔍 Dodgers are MLB’s best team and have walked off two straight. With shaky starters and hot bats, the over makes sense even at Dodger Stadium.
💰 Odds: Dodgers -301, White Sox +237 | Total: 9.0

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