Today's MLB Rundown + Best Bets

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Tigers ML (-132) vs Diamondbacks – 6:40 PM ET
Troy Melton’s debut was rough, but Detroit’s bats just snapped a six-game skid with a 10-run outburst. Arizona’s Eduardo Rodriguez has been hit hard with a 5.50 ERA, and the Tigers’ home edge is real here.

Cubs/Brewers Under 8.0 (-119) – 7:40 PM ET
Matthew Boyd hasn’t allowed a run in three straight starts, while Milwaukee’s Jacob Misiorowski has fanned 21 in 13.1 July innings. With both rotations hot, this division showdown shapes up as a low-scoring duel.

Rangers ML (-199) vs Angels – 9:38 PM ET
Jacob deGrom brings a 2.28 ERA and .197 opponent average into Anaheim, facing Jack Kochanowicz, who was tagged for 8 runs by Texas earlier. Expect the Rangers’ ace to control this one from the jump.

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✅ Best Bet: Over 9.5 (-105)
🔹 Chris Bassitt (TOR): 11-4, 3.88 ERA — Toronto’s won his last four starts
🔹 Zach Eflin (BAL): 6-5, 5.78 ERA — allowed HRs vs TOR earlier this year
🔍 Toronto’s 8-2 in their last 10, crushing with a .307 average. Baltimore’s arms have a 5.07 ERA, and Eflin’s long-ball issues play right into Guerrero Jr.’s hot streak.
💰 Odds: Orioles -114, Blue Jays -107 | Total: 9.5

✅ Best Bet: Under 9.0 (-121)
🔹 Bradley Blalock (COL): 1-2, 8.67 ERA — 5+ ER in 3 of 5 starts
🔹 Slade Cecconi (CLE): 5-4, 3.76 ERA — 2.95 ERA last six home starts
🔍 Colorado’s 9-45 on the road and just traded away Ryan McMahon. Cleveland’s offense also lags, but Cecconi’s sharp command and Rockies’ road collapse point to a low total.
💰 Odds: Guardians -245, Rockies +196 | Total: 9.0

🔥 Top Pick: Tigers ML (-132)
🔹 Eduardo Rodriguez (ARI): 3-6, 5.50 ERA — poor first half
🔹 Troy Melton (DET): 0-1, 10.80 ERA — second MLB start
🔍 Detroit finally broke a six-game skid and faces a cold Arizona lineup that’s averaged just 1 run in its last five games. Rodriguez’s struggles give the Tigers an edge.
💰 Odds: Tigers -132, Dbacks +108 | Total: 9.0

✅ Best Bet: Over 8.5 (-112)
🔹 Drew Rasmussen (TB): 7-5, 2.93 ERA — strong WHIP but faces NY’s .831 OPS vs grounders
🔹 Cam Schlittler (NYY): 1-0, 4.35 ERA — 1.55 WHIP, just 10.1 IP
🔍 The Yankees’ bullpen has a 6.78 ERA in July, and Tampa’s due for a breakout. Warm Bronx weather could turn this into a slugfest.
💰 Odds: Yankees -133, Rays +109 | Total: 8.5

✅ Best Bet: Under 9.0 (-105)
🔹 Yoshinobu Yamamoto (LAD): 8-7, 2.55 ERA — just 1 HR allowed last 5 starts
🔹 Chase Burns (CIN): 0-2, 6.65 ERA — 6 ER in last outing
🔍 Reds are hot but still hit .219 vs lefties; Dodgers’ July skid keeps scoring muted. Expect Yamamoto to limit damage.
💰 Odds: Dodgers -158, Reds +129 | Total: 9.0

✅ Best Bet: Under 9.5 (-119)
🔹 Richard Fitts (BOS): 1-4, 4.86 ERA — shaky last outing
🔹 Simeon Woods Richardson (MIN): 5-4, 4.14 ERA — 3.12 ERA at home
🔍 Minnesota bats just .213 third time through the order, worst in MLB. Boston’s defense travels, pointing to a tighter contest.
💰 Odds: Twins -115, Red Sox -106 | Total: 9.5

✅ Best Bet: Under 9.5 (-111)
🔹 Spencer Strider (ATL): 4-8, 3.72 ERA — elite strikeout upside
🔹 Rich Hill (KC): 0-1, 1.80 ERA — 45-year-old in second start
🔍 Atlanta’s on a five-game skid, Royals grind contact but lack pop. Kauffman’s big outfield and Strider’s Ks support the under.
💰 Odds: Braves -170, Royals +139 | Total: 9.5

✅ Best Bet: Phillies ML (-225)
🔹 Cristopher Sánchez (PHI): 9-2, 2.40 ERA — dominant, 1 ER last outing
🔹 Davis Martin (CWS): 2-8, 3.89 ERA — struggles with control
🔍 Phillies’ road starters own a 2.88 ERA, best in MLB, and face a weak Sox lineup. Schwarber’s power keeps this one-sided.
💰 Odds: Phillies -225, White Sox +181 | Total: 8.0

🔥 Top Pick: Under 8.0 (-119)
🔹 Matthew Boyd (CHC): 11-3, 2.20 ERA — 0 runs allowed in last 3 starts
🔹 Jacob Misiorowski (MIL): 4-1, 2.45 ERA — 21 Ks in 13.1 July IP
🔍 Co-leaders in the NL Central square off with two red-hot arms. Milwaukee’s low home OPS adds to the under appeal.
💰 Odds: Cubs -119, Brewers -102 | Total: 8.0

✅ Best Bet: Under 8.0 (-102)
🔹 Edward Cabrera (MIA): 4-4, 3.48 ERA — ≤2 ER in 9 of last 10 starts
🔹 Andre Pallante (STL): 5-7, 4.91 ERA — 17 ER last 3 outings
🔍 Miami’s 15-4 in its last 19 road games and pitching has a 2.44 ERA recently. Cabrera’s form favors a low-scoring grind.
💰 Odds: Cardinals -121, Marlins -101 | Total: 8.0

✅ Best Bet: Under 7.5 (-109)
🔹 Brad Lord (WSH): 2-5, 3.39 ERA — held CIN to 1 ER in last start
🔹 Framber Valdez (HOU): 11-4, 2.67 ERA — allowed ≤1 ER in 4 of 5
🔍 Houston’s bullpen leads MLB in K% and opp. avg., and Valdez is locked in. Nationals’ weak relief won’t push this over.
💰 Odds: Astros -264, Nats +211 | Total: 7.5

🔥 Top Pick: Rangers ML (-199)
🔹 Jacob deGrom (TEX): 10-2, 2.28 ERA — 48 Ks in last 42 IP
🔹 Jack Kochanowicz (LAA): 3-9, 6.03 ERA — tagged for 8 ER by TEX previously
🔍 Texas is on a six-game heater, and deGrom dominates weak lineups. Angels’ home woes continue.
💰 Odds: Rangers -199, Angels +162 | Total: 8.5

✅ Best Bet: Over 8.0 (-111)
🔹 Frankie Montas (NYM): 3-1, 4.62 ERA — 25.1 IP this season
🔹 Dylan Cease (SD): 3-10, 4.59 ERA — inconsistent despite 144 Ks
🔍 Mets have won seven straight and mash righties with a 47% hard-hit rate. Both starters’ ERAs invite runs at Petco.
💰 Odds: Padres -131, Mets +107 | Total: 8.0

✅ Best Bet: Under 7.5 (-102)
🔹 Mitch Keller (PIT): 4-10, 3.53 ERA — 2.03 ERA over last 5
🔹 Carson Whisenhunt (SF): MLB debut — strong changeup, AAA 4.42 ERA
🔍 Giants’ bats are cold with just 20 runs in 10 games, Pirates’ offense is worst on the road. Oracle Park keeps it quiet.
💰 Odds: Giants -136, Pirates +112 | Total: 7.5

✅ Best Bet: Over 10.0 (-106)
🔹 Luis Castillo (SEA): 7-6, 3.30 ERA — 2.28 ERA in July
🔹 JP Sears (OAK): 7-8, 4.98 ERA — 10 ER last 3 starts
🔍 Oakland allows 6 runs/game at home, and Seattle owns a .340 road OBP, best in MLB. Expect runs both ways.
💰 Odds: Mariners -121, Athletics +100 | Total: 10.0

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