Today's MLB Rundown + Best Bets

We deliver concise MLB previews with key takeaways for every matchup, so you’re informed without the hassle. Our AI-driven analysis simulates sports traders’ betting strategies to identify the best bets.

We’re most active on Twitter. Reply to this email with your thoughts, bets, or anything else — we respond to every reply.

Phillies ML (-119) vs Yankees – 1:05 PM ET
Ranger Suárez (2.66 ERA) has dominated on the road while Marcus Stroman’s 5.64 ERA and bottom-10 percentile hard-hit metrics set up a favorable spot for Philadelphia’s surging bats.

Tigers ML (-199) vs Blue Jays – 6:10 PM ET
Tarik Skubal (10-3, 2.19 ERA) has been unhittable at home, and he faces a Toronto team that’s cooled despite Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s hot bat. Detroit needs this to snap a five-game skid.

Brewers/Marlins Under 8.5 (-116) – 7:10 PM ET
Janson Junk’s 1.03 WHIP and Jose Quintana’s 2.83 home ERA set the stage for a low-scoring affair. Milwaukee’s starters limit OPS with RISP to .551, the best mark in MLB.

Cleveland and Kansas City square off twice today at Kauffman Stadium (2:40 PM & 7:15 PM). Expect low scoring, with both Guardians starters owning strong numbers vs the Royals this season.

🔥 Top Pick: Phillies ML (-119)
🔹 Ranger Suárez (PHI): 7-4, 2.66 ERA — top percentile in limiting hard contact
🔹 Marcus Stroman (NYY): 2-1, 5.64 ERA — struggles with whiffs and contact quality
🔍 Philly’s offense has put up 20 runs in their last two games, while the Yankees’ arms have given up the same in their past two. With Suárez cruising, the visitors hold the edge.
💰 Odds: Phillies -119, Yankees -102 | Total: 9.5

✅ Best Bet: Under 8.0 (-113)
🔹 Gavin Williams (CLE): 6-4, 3.54 ERA — 2.14 ERA in six career starts vs KC
🔹 Michael Wacha (KC): 4-9, 3.62 ERA — strong in last two outings with 1 ER allowed each
🔍 Cleveland struggles in righty-righty matchups (.180 AVG, 31% K rate), and both starters have recent success against these opponents. Runs should be scarce in the opener.
💰 Odds: Royals -137, Guardians +112 | Total: 8.0

✅ Best Bet: Under 8.0 (-113)
🔹 Tanner Bibee (CLE): 6-9, 4.27 ERA — 10.1 scoreless innings vs KC this year
🔹 Kris Bubic (KC): 8-6, 2.38 ERA — anchors the Royals’ rotation with ace-level results
🔍 Game 2 of the doubleheader features Bibee’s dominance against Kansas City and Bubic’s home consistency. Expect another tight, low-scoring contest.
💰 Odds: Royals -137, Guardians +112 | Total: 8.0

🔥 Top Pick: Tigers ML (-199)
🔹 Kevin Gausman (TOR): 7-7, 4.01 ERA — inconsistent despite flashes of brilliance
🔹 Tarik Skubal (DET): 10-3, 2.19 ERA — 164 SO, 0.81 WHIP, overpowering at home
🔍 Detroit’s offense has been ice cold (.207 AVG last 10), but Skubal’s ace form gives them the rebound edge against Toronto’s strikeout-averse lineup.
💰 Odds: Tigers -199, Blue Jays +162 | Total: 7.0

✅ Best Bet: Over 8.5 (-121)
🔹 Merrill Kelly (ARI): 9-5, 3.32 ERA — steady veteran arm
🔹 Andrew Heaney (PIT): 4-9, 5.03 ERA — vulnerable to right-handed bats
🔍 Arizona crushes righties (.459 SLG vs RHP), while Pittsburgh’s offense will look to bounce back against Kelly despite his strong season numbers
💰 Odds: D-backs -137, Pirates +113 | Total: 8.5

✅ Best Bet: Under 9.0 (-103)
🔹 Ryan Pepiot (TB): 6-8, 3.59 ERA — first career start vs CIN
🔹 Andrew Abbott (CIN): 8-1, 2.13 ERA — dominant at home with sub-2.20 ERA
🔍 Abbott’s hot streak and Tampa Bay’s road struggles point to a tight, low-scoring duel at Great American Ball Park.
💰 Odds: Reds -125, Rays +103 | Total: 9.0

✅ Best Bet: Over 9.5 (-107)
🔹 Antonio Senzatela (COL): 4-13, 6.41 ERA — part of MLB’s worst rotation by ERA
🔹 Trevor Rogers (BAL): 3-1, 1.74 ERA — lone bright spot in a shaky Orioles staff
🔍 Baltimore’s pitching woes meet Colorado’s bats that have heated up post-break (.274 AVG). Camden Yards should see runs.
💰 Odds: Orioles -268, Rockies +213 | Total: 9.5

✅ Best Bet: Under 8.5 (-110)
🔹 Grant Holmes (ATL): 4-9, 3.81 ERA — control issues on the road
🔹 Kumar Rocker (TEX): 4-4, 5.66 ERA — improving command, still HR-prone
🔍 Texas is on a 12-3 run with a shutdown bullpen, while Atlanta can’t buy road wins. Despite Globe Life’s hitter tag, pitching trends favor the Under.
💰 Odds: Rangers -116, Braves -104 | Total: 8.5

✅ Best Bet: Under 7.5 (-105)
🔹 Jacob Lopez (OAK): 3-6, 4.60 ERA — solid vs HOU earlier this year
🔹 Hunter Brown (HOU): 9-4, 2.57 ERA — dominant overall, recent rough patch
🔍 Houston’s elite bullpen and Lopez’s past success against the Astros suggest a low-scoring tilt despite recent blowouts.
💰 Odds: Astros -193, Athletics +157 | Total: 7.5

✅ Best Bet: Over 9.0 (-101)
🔹 Mitchell Parker (WSH): 6-10, 5.00 ERA — road struggles continue
🔹 Joe Ryan (MIN): 10-4, 2.63 ERA — 11 quality starts in 19 appearances
🔍 Washington’s bullpen owns the league’s worst ERA (5.60), and Joe Ryan gives Minnesota a strong edge on the mound against Mitchell Parker.
💰 Odds: Twins -252, Nationals +201 | Total: 9.0

✅ Best Bet: Over 9.0 (-123)
🔹 Cade Horton (CUBS): 3-3, 4.04 ERA — HR stingy in July
🔹 Aaron Civale (SOX): 2-6, 4.76 ERA — owns Cubs historically (1.61 ERA)
🔍 Crosstown slugfest? White Sox average 7.3 runs in their last 10, Cubs hit .463 on the road. Runs should pile up again at Rate Field.
💰 Odds: Cubs -194, White Sox +157 | Total: 9.0

🔥 Top Pick: Under 8.5 (-116)
🔹 Janson Junk (MIA): 4-2, 3.09 ERA — 1.03 WHIP, elite control
🔹 Jose Quintana (MIL): 7-3, 3.49 ERA — 2.83 ERA at home
🔍 Miami rides a 3-game win streak, but with these arms and Milwaukee’s RISP suppression, runs will be at a premium.
💰 Odds: Brewers -169, Marlins +138 | Total: 8.5

✅ Best Bet: Under 8.5 (-110)
🔹 Clayton Kershaw (LAD): 4-1, 3.27 ERA — first career start vs BOS
🔹 Garrett Crochet (BOS): 11-4, 2.19 ERA — MLB’s strikeout leader
🔍 Two strikeout artists face off in a park trending Over, but quality arms and clutch pitching favor the Under despite hot bats on both sides.
💰 Odds: Red Sox -149, Dodgers +122 | Total: 8.5

✅ Best Bet: Over 9.0 (-115)
🔹 Randy Vásquez (SD): 3-4, 3.73 ERA — reliable in the middle innings
🔹 Matthew Liberatore (STL): 6-7, 4.13 ERA — trending better with 3.33 ERA last 5
🔍 With Busch seeing more runs lately and both offenses clicking, this game projects Over the total.
💰 Odds: Cardinals -156, Padres +128 | Total: 9.0

✅ Best Bet: Under 7.5 (-107)
🔹 David Peterson (NYM): 6-4, 2.90 ERA — career struggles at Oracle (7.36 ERA)
🔹 Robbie Ray (SF): 9-4, 2.92 ERA — dominant at home (2.53 ERA)
🔍 Two All-Star lefties and Oracle’s pitcher-friendly conditions should keep this one tight and low-scoring.
💰 Odds: Giants -115, Mets -106 | Total: 7.5

✅ Best Bet: Under 8.5 (-105)
🔹 George Kirby (SEA): 4-5, 4.65 ERA — steady WHIP (1.13)
🔹 Tyler Anderson (LAA): 2-6, 4.43 ERA — struggles with traffic (1.41 WHIP)
🔍 Mariners crush on the road (.786 OPS), but both starters and the park factor point to a total staying Under.
💰 Odds: Mariners -137, Angels +113 | Total: 8.5

Preview every MLB game today with our short-form write-ups. Each newsletter has:

🔮 Best Bets at the top.
📊 Game Previews below.
👀 Plus, we’re building tools to let you experiment on your own - more coming soon…

Are you a sportsbook operator? Reply to this email to discuss integrating our live game write-ups into your platform or explore our B2B site: montecarmelo.info

Interested in making your own newsletter? Use the link below to receive a 30-day trial + 20% OFF for 3 months on Beehiiv! Reply to this email, and we’ll even help you get started with AI tips and tricks to jumpstart your journey