Today's MLB Rundown + Best Bets

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Brewers -1.5 (+102) vs Marlins – 4:10 PM ET
Milwaukee has won 9 of its last 10 and sends Freddy Peralta (12-4, 2.85 ERA) to the mound against Cal Quantrill, who owns just one quality start in his last 19 outings. With Miami's offense ranked 23rd in wRC+ this month, this has blowout potential.

Blue Jays ML (-103) @ Tigers – 7:10 PM ET
Toronto’s offense ranks 8th in MLB in runs scored and leads the league in strikeout rate (17%). They face Keider Montero, who’s given up 13 homers in fewer than 70 innings. The Blue Jays are riding a 4-game win streak, while Detroit's lost 10 of 11.

Nationals/Twins Over 8.5 (-102) – 8:10 PM ET
Zebby Matthews has a 6.26 ERA and has allowed 16 earned runs in 23 innings, while Washington's bullpen ranks last in MLB with a 5.65 ERA. Nine of Washington’s last 9 AL matchups have gone over—expect fireworks.

🔥 Top Pick: Brewers -1.5 (+102)
🔹 Cal Quantrill (MIA): 3-8, 5.24 ERA – just 1 quality start in 19 outings
🔹 Freddy Peralta (MIL): 12-4, 2.85 ERA – 1.08 WHIP, top 13% in hard-hit rate allowed
🔍 Milwaukee is rolling with the best record in baseball and a deep, aggressive lineup, while Quantrill’s metrics and Miami’s weak offensive July point to a mismatch.
💰 Odds: Brewers -225, Marlins +182 | Total: 8.0

✅ Best Bet: Over 9.0 (+100)
🔹 Ryne Nelson (ARI): 6-2, 3.52 ERA – 5 of last 7 starts with ≤1 ER
🔹 Mike Burrows (PIT): 1-3, 4.70 ERA – 0 quality starts in 10 tries
🔍 Arizona's elite .463 SLG vs RHP meets Burrows' inefficiency, while both teams come in off offensive surges. Expect this one to climb over.
💰 Odds: D-backs -112, Pirates -109 | Total: 9.0

✅ Best Bet: Under 9.5 (-119)
🔹 Kyle Freeland (COL): 2-10, 5.19 ERA – 3.73 xFIP on the road
🔹 Dean Kremer (BAL): 8-7, 4.06 ERA – 2.51 ERA last 7 starts
🔍 Both starters have shown recent stability, and despite weak overall pitching, neither lineup has capitalized often.
💰 Odds: Orioles -206, Rockies +167 | Total: 9.5

✅ Best Bet: Over 10.0 (-115)
🔹 Taijuan Walker (PHI): 3-5, 3.75 ERA – only 1 HR allowed on road
🔹 Will Warren (NYY): 6-5, 4.91 ERA – 47 BB in 99 IP
🔍 Harper’s July OPS is 1.118, Judge leads MLB with 37 HR, and Warren can’t stay in games. This sets up for a classic Bronx slugfest.
💰 Odds: Yankees -158, Phillies +129 | Total: 10.0

✅ Best Bet: Under 9.5 (-112)
🔹 Emmet Sheehan (LAD): 1-1, 4.41 ERA – 46% zone rate in July
🔹 Brayan Bello (BOS): 6-4, 3.23 ERA – 35% hard-hit rate on fastballs
🔍 Both teams are struggling at the plate (.216 and .199 averages last 10), and Boston's elite bullpen (.630 OPS allowed) should limit damage late.
💰 Odds: Dodgers -120, Red Sox -102 | Total: 9.5

✅ Best Bet: Under 9.5 (-112)
🔹 Zack Littell (TB): 8-7, 3.53 ERA – 6-3 on road with 3.68 ERA
🔹 Nick Martinez (CIN): 8-9, 4.73 ERA – inconsistent but serviceable
🔍 Neither lineup is hot, and both bullpens rank top 5 in batting average allowed. Smart market movement backs the under.
💰 Odds: Reds -112, Rays -108 | Total: 9.5

🔥 Top Pick: Blue Jays ML (-103)
🔹 José Berríos (TOR): 6-4, 3.87 ERA – shaky last start but elite strikeout control
🔹 Keider Montero (DET): 4-2, 4.28 ERA – 13 HR allowed in <70 IP
🔍 Vlad Jr. is 12-for-24 during his 6-game hit streak, and the Blue Jays rank No. 1 in MLB in K% (17%). Red-hot offense vs a homer-prone arm.
💰 Odds: Tigers -117, Blue Jays -103 | Total: 9.0

✅ Best Bet: Under 8.5 (-112)
🔹 Nick Pivetta (SD): 10-2, 2.81 ERA – opponents hitting .133 vs his high fastball
🔹 Miles Mikolas (STL): 5-7, 5.20 ERA – inconsistent but capable vs weak SLG team
🔍 Padres slug just .380 vs RHP (3rd-worst in MLB), giving Mikolas a path to success. A bounce-back after a 9-7 opener feels likely.
💰 Odds: Padres -131, Cardinals +107 | Total: 8.5

✅ Best Bet: Over 8.0 (-111)
🔹 Shota Imanaga (CHC): 7-3, 2.40 ERA – 1.33 ERA in 7 road starts
🔹 Adrian Houser (CHW): 5-2, 1.89 ERA – 0.69 ERA at home
🔍 Both pitchers are sharp, but recent offensive surges and bullpen cracks suggest scoring late. White Sox have scored 5+ in 6 of last 7.
💰 Odds: Cubs -180, White Sox +147 | Total: 8.0

✅ Best Bet: F5 Under 4.5 (-115)
🔹 Joey Wentz (ATL): 2-1, 5.71 ERA – 7.11 career ERA vs TEX
🔹 Nathan Eovaldi (TEX): 7-3, 1.58 ERA – 1 run or fewer in 10 of last 11 starts
🔍 Texas leads MLB in starter OPS allowed (.637), and Eovaldi’s been lights out. Expect a slow start to scoring.
💰 Odds: Rangers -156, Braves +128 | Total: 8.0

✅ Best Bet: Under 8.0 (-103)
🔹 Gavin Williams (CLE): 6-4, 3.54 ERA – 2.70 ERA vs KC last 5 starts
🔹 Michael Wacha (KC): 4-9, 3.62 ERA – 3.00 ERA vs CLE last 5
🔍 Both lineups struggle vs RHP, and Cleveland owns the league’s lowest RHP vs RHB OPS (.554). Tight, low-scoring AL Central tilt.
💰 Odds: Royals -114, Guardians -106 | Total: 8.0

✅ Best Bet: Under 8.5 (-117)
🔹 Jeffrey Springs (OAK): 8-7, 4.18 ERA – poor vs HOU historically
🔹 Ryan Gusto (HOU): 6-3, 4.46 ERA – 8 K in 5 IP vs OAK earlier this year
🔍 Astros bullpen leads MLB in K% and opp AVG (.215), while Oakland’s road bullpen ERA is league-worst (5.53). But Houston's lineup is depleted.
💰 Odds: Astros -144, A’s +118 | Total: 8.5

🔥 Top Pick: Over 8.5 (-102)
🔹 MacKenzie Gore (WSH): 4-9, 3.59 ERA – 140 K, 6+ K in 9 of last 10 road starts
🔹 Zebby Matthews (MIN): 1-2, 6.26 ERA – 16 ER in 23 IP
🔍 Washington’s bullpen has MLB’s worst ERA (5.65), and Matthews has yet to show consistency. All signs point to an over in Target Field.
💰 Odds: Twins -171, Nationals +140 | Total: 8.5

✅ Best Bet: Over 8.0 (-119)
🔹 Bryan Woo (SEA): 8-5, 2.91 ERA – 1-0 with 3.38 ERA vs LAA career
🔹 José Soriano (LAA): 7-7, 3.83 ERA – 5.65 ERA at home
🔍 Mariners have hit the over in 7 of their last 8 road games, and the Angels have gone over in 6 of 7 vs AL West. Add in Soriano’s home splits, and the over’s the play.
💰 Odds: Mariners -126, Angels +104 | Total: 8.0

✅ Best Bet: Under 7.5 (-108)
🔹 Clay Holmes (NYM): 8-5, 3.48 ERA – 4 straight Mets wins entering Friday
🔹 Logan Webb (SF): 9-7, 3.08 ERA – 2.23 ERA at home
🔍 Pitcher-friendly park, elite home splits for Webb, and both teams are top-tier in pitching ERA. This one has low-scoring written all over it.
💰 Odds: Giants -136, Mets +112 | Total: 7.5

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