Today's MLB Rundown + Best Bets

Baltimore Orioles (44-55) @ Cleveland Guardians (49-50) – 6:40 PM
✅ Best Bet: Over 8 (-113)
🔹 Brandon Young (BAL): 0-4, 7.52 ERA, 1.78 WHIP – 7 ER in 4.1 IP last time out
🔹 Joey Cantillo (CLE): 1-0, 4.17 ERA, 54 SO in 41 IP
Seven of the last eight meetings cleared this number and Cleveland’s averaged 6.2 R/G over its 9-2 surge. Young’s .286 BAA sets the table for more crooked numbers.
💰 ML: BAL +118 / CLE -144

Detroit Tigers (60-41) @ Pittsburgh Pirates (40-61) – 6:40 PM
🔥 Top Pick: Under 8 (-113)
🔹 Casey Mize (DET): 9-3, 3.15 ERA, 77 SO – All-Star comeback story
🔹 Mitch Keller (PIT): 3-10, 3.48 ERA, 92 SO – 1.14 WHIP, poorest run support in MLB (2.97 R/GS)
Pittsburgh has scored 3-or-fewer in eight of 10; Detroit just three runs total in its last four. Two sharp arms, ice-cold bats, pitcher-friendly PNC.
💰 ML: DET -132 / PIT +108

San Diego Padres (55-45) @ Miami Marlins (46-53) – 6:40 PM
✅ Best Bet: Under 8 (-105)
🔹 Stephen Kolek (SD): 3-4, 4.24 ERA, 49 SO
🔹 Edward Cabrera (MIA): 3-4, 3.61 ERA, 86 SO
Padres bullpen owns MLB-best 3.15 ERA and both clubs sit bottom-three in July SLG. Miami is 37-19 only when it reaches 8 hits; SD pitching hasn’t let many lineups get there.
💰 ML: SD -105 / MIA -115

Cincinnati Reds (52-49) @ Washington Nationals (40-60) – 6:45 PM
✅ Best Bet: Over 9 (-101)
🔹 Chase Burns (CIN): 0-1, 6.19 ERA, 25 SO – rookie’s second start
🔹 Brad Lord (WSH): 2-5, 3.46 ERA, 56 SO
Monday’s opener produced 18 runs and the Nats bullpen carries MLB’s worst 5.71 ERA. Both clubs hit lefties well and Lord faces a righty-heavy lineup.
💰 ML: CIN -142 / WSH +117

Boston Red Sox (54-48) @ Philadelphia Phillies (57-43) – 6:45 PM
✅ Best Bet: Under 8.5 (-111)
🔹 Richard Fitts (BOS): 1-3, 4.28 ERA, 28 SO in 33.2 IP
🔹 Cristopher Sánchez (PHI): 8-2, 2.50 ERA, 122 SO, 1.14 WHIP
Boston’s bullpen leads MLB with a .325 SLG allowed, while Sánchez hasn’t yielded more than 3 ER in any of his 17 starts. Pitching edges trump the bandbox tonight.
💰 ML: BOS +167 / PHI -205

New York Yankees (55-45) @ Toronto Blue Jays (59-41) – 7:07 PM
✅ Best Bet: Over 9 (-112)
🔹 Cam Schlittler (NYY): 1-0, 5.06 ERA – first road start
🔹 Max Scherzer (TOR): 1-0, 4.70 ERA, 24 SO
Toronto rides an 11-game home win streak and ranks first in MLB K-rate (17%). Ten of the last 11 in this park have gone over; expect more with two 4.70+ ERAs on the bump.
💰 ML: NYY +107 / TOR -131

Los Angeles Angels (49-51) @ New York Mets (57-44) – 7:10 PM
✅ Best Bet: Over 9.5 (+100)
🔹 Kyle Hendricks (LAA): 5-6, 4.88 ERA, 1.29 WHIP on road
🔹 Frankie Montas (NYM): 2-1, 5.03 ERA, 4 HR allowed in <20 IP
Mets average 5.0 R/G at Citi, Angels strike out 26% (2nd-highest) but slug when they connect. Montas still building up; long ball risk on both sides.
💰 ML: LAA +144 / NYM -176

San Francisco Giants (52-49) @ Atlanta Braves (44-55) – 7:15 PM
✅ Best Bet: Under 9.5 (-115)
🔹 Landen Roupp (SF): 6-6, 3.27 ERA, 89 SO – 4.04 xERA hints at regression
🔹 Davis Daniel (ATL): 0-0, 1.80 ERA in first start, 6 SO
Seven of the last 10 head-to-head have stayed under. San Francisco owns an 87 wRC+ since June 22, while Atlanta’s lineup is 21st in OPS vs RHP.
💰 ML: SF -102 / ATL -119

Chicago White Sox (36-65) @ Tampa Bay Rays (52-49) – 7:35 PM
✅ Best Bet: Over 8 (-119)
🔹 Davis Martin (CWS): 2-7, 3.79 ERA – multiple runs in 7 of last 8 outings
🔹 Drew Rasmussen (TB): 7-5, 2.86 ERA, 1.03 WHIP
Chicago’s .218 AVG vs RHP is worst in MLB, but Tampa just tagged them for 8 runs and faces a taxed bullpen. Four-game Sox win streak has hit the over every time.
💰 ML: CWS +186 / TB -231

Kansas City Royals (49-52) @ Chicago Cubs (59-41) – 8:05 PM
✅ Best Bet: Over 9 (-103)
🔹 Rich Hill (KC): first 2025 start – 4.91 ERA last season
🔹 Matthew Boyd (CHC): 10-3, 2.34 ERA, 102 SO – three shutouts in last four
Cubs own a 10-3 bounce-back mark after series-opening losses; KC’s bullpen game leaked 12 runs Monday. Wrigley winds plus unknown Hill tilt to runs.
💰 ML: KC +216 / CHC -272

Athletics (42-60) @ Texas Rangers (51-50) – 8:05 PM
✅ Best Bet: Under 7.5 (-105)
🔹 J.T. Ginn (OAK): 1-2, 4.91 ERA, 41 SO
🔹 Jacob deGrom (TEX): 9-2, 2.32 ERA, .194 BAA
Oakland’s 25th-ranked offense now faces a 37-year-old ace with a 32% K-rate. DeGrom’s last five starts have averaged 5.8 total runs.
💰 ML: OAK +192 / TEX -239

St. Louis Cardinals (52-49) @ Colorado Rockies (24-76) – 8:40 PM
🔥 Top Pick: Over 12 (-112)
🔹 Erick Fedde (STL): 3-9, 4.83 ERA, 58 SO
🔹 Bradley Blalock (COL): 0-2, 9.97 ERA, .313 BAA vs COL SPs this season
Coors boosts runs by 34%, and both rotations are bottom-three in OPS allowed. Contreras vs Blalock and a historically leaky Rockies pen should light up the board.
💰 ML: STL -157 / COL +129

Houston Astros (58-42) @ Arizona D-backs (50-51) – 9:40 PM
✅ Best Bet: Over 8.5 (-105)
🔹 Framber Valdez (HOU): 10-4, 2.75 ERA – five straight road wins
🔹 Eduardo Rodriguez (ARI): 3-6, 5.94 ERA – 6.48 ERA in last five vs HOU
Astros have cleared this number in three straight vs Arizona, and Rodriguez’s 1.54 HR/9 invites trouble against Altuve & friends.
💰 ML: HOU -120 / ARI -102

Milwaukee Brewers (60-40) @ Seattle Mariners (53-47) – 9:40 PM
🔥 Top Pick: Under 6.5 (+103)
🔹 Jacob Misiorowski (MIL): 4-1, 2.81 ERA, 12 K vs LAD last start
🔹 Logan Gilbert (SEA): 2-3, 3.39 ERA, 88 SO in 61 IP
Brewers have allowed ≤3 runs in eight of 11 on their win streak; Seattle’s offense is 25th in OPS vs RHP. A fresh Milwaukee pen and a park that suppresses HRs (0.89 HR factor) keep this tight.
💰 ML: MIL +104 / SEA -126

Minnesota Twins (48-52) @ Los Angeles Dodgers (59-42) – 10:10 PM
✅ Best Bet: Over 8.5 (-110)
🔹 Simeon Woods Richardson (MIN): 5-4, 3.95 ERA – 1 ER in last start
🔹 Yoshinobu Yamamoto (LAD): 8-7, 2.59 ERA, 116 SO – 7.0 scoreless last outing
Dodgers lead MLB at 5.78 R/G at home and just snapped a skid with a Smith two-HR night. Minnesota’s bullpen owns a 4.62 ERA on the road; late insurance runs push this past the number.
💰 ML: MIN +182 / LAD -226