Today's MLB Rundown + Best Bets

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Tigers/Pirates Under 7 (-109) – 6:40 PM ET
Skenes has held opponents under 3 runs in 17 of 20 starts with a 2.01 ERA and .187 opponent average. Detroit’s offense is scuffling (2.5 runs/game last 6) in a game set up for a pitcher’s duel.

Brewers ML (+104) @ Mariners – 9:40 PM ET
Woodruff (2.61 ERA, 18 Ks in 10.1 IP) is rounding into form and Milwaukee has won 10 straight behind Chourio’s 14-game hit streak. Seattle struggles at home (.303 OBP), making the Brewers undervalued.

Reds ML (-137) @ Nationals – 6:45 PM ET
Singer (3.58 ERA last 7 starts) faces Irvin, who’s carrying a 5.22 home ERA. Washington has dropped 10 of 12 and struggles badly with runners on, opening the door for Cincinnati.

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All times EDT

✅ Best Bet: Under 8.5 (-119)
🔹 Tomoyuki Sugano (BAL): 7-5, 4.44 ERA — 3.71 ERA last 5 starts
🔹 Tanner Bibee (CLE): 5-9, 4.29 ERA — 3 straight quality starts at home
🔍 Cleveland (8-2 last 10) leans on José Ramírez (.517 SLG) and Bibee’s home success. Baltimore’s rotation has cratered (5.16 ERA, 2nd-worst MLB), but Progressive Field dampens scoring.
💰 Odds: Orioles +113, Guardians -137 | Total: 8.5

🔥 Top Pick: Under 7 (-109)
🔹 Jack Flaherty (DET): 5-9, 4.65 ERA — high strikeouts (124) but inconsistent
🔹 Paul Skenes (PIT): 4-8, 2.01 ERA — 131 Ks, 0.93 WHIP, All-Star
🔍 Detroit snapped a 6-game skid Sunday but still ranks 2nd-worst offensively over last week. Skenes (.187 opponent AVG) faces a Tigers team that’s hit just .263 vs LHP this year.
💰 Odds: Tigers +108, Pirates -132 | Total: 7

✅ Best Bet: Under 8.5 (-115)
🔹 Randy Vásquez (SD): 3-4, 3.80 ERA — 1.39 WHIP with control issues
🔹 Eury Pérez (MIA): 3-2, 3.18 ERA — 0.91 WHIP, strong command
🔍 Miami’s Stowers (.448 last 10) provides pop, but loanDepot Park plays pitcher-friendly. Both starters limit hard contact and keep the ball in the park.
💰 Odds: Padres +112, Marlins -136 | Total: 8.5

🔥 Top Pick: Reds ML (-137)
🔹 Brady Singer (CIN): 7-7, 4.32 ERA — 3.58 ERA last 7 starts
🔹 Jake Irvin (WSH): 7-5, 4.58 ERA — 5.72 ERA last 8 starts, struggles at home
🔍 Reds have won 4 of 5 on the road while Washington’s staff ranks last with runners on base. Elly De La Cruz (18 HR) should thrive in this matchup.
💰 Odds: Reds -137, Nationals +113 | Total: 9

✅ Best Bet: Under 8.5 (-115)
🔹 Walker Buehler (BOS): 6-6, 6.12 ERA — inconsistent but Red Sox are 9-7 in his starts
🔹 Zack Wheeler (PHI): 9-3, 2.36 ERA — Phillies 13-6 in his starts
🔍 Boston’s bullpen leads MLB in OPS allowed (.635), and the Under has cashed in 4 of their last 5. Philly bats have cooled, going 4-6 in their last 10.
💰 Odds: Red Sox +176, Phillies -218 | Total: 8.5

✅ Best Bet: Over 8.0 (-118)
🔹 Carlos Rodón (NYY): 10-6, 3.08 ERA — steady season with 135 Ks
🔹 Kevin Gausman (TOR): 6-7, 4.19 ERA — struggled last outing
🔍 Judge (.407 vs TOR this year) leads a Yankee lineup averaging over 8.5 runs/game in 9 of last 10. Jays ride a 10-game home win streak into this one.
💰 Odds: Yankees -120, Blue Jays -102 | Total: 8

✅ Best Bet: Under 8.0 (-105)
🔹 Tyler Anderson (LAA): 2-6, 4.34 ERA — worse on the road (5.12 ERA)
🔹 Kodai Senga (NYM): 7-3, 1.39 ERA — dominant at home (1.07 ERA)
🔍 Senga’s ghost fork should neutralize the Angels, who strike out at the 2nd-highest rate in MLB. Mets have scored just 25 runs in their last 8.
💰 Odds: Angels +157, Mets -193 | Total: 8

✅ Best Bet: Under 9.5 (-110)
🔹 Hayden Birdsong (SF): 4-3, 4.11 ERA — 68 Ks but 33 BB
🔹 Bryce Elder (ATL): 3-6, 5.65 ERA — rough season, 1.51 WHIP
🔍 Both offenses have sputtered — Giants averaging 3.2 runs last 10 games, Braves inconsistent. Truist Park slightly suppresses scoring.
💰 Odds: Giants +104, Braves -126 | Total: 9.5

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✅ Best Bet: Over 9.0 (-101)
🔹 Sean Burke (CWS): 4-8, 4.36 ERA — 4+ runs allowed in 3 of last 5 road starts
🔹 Shane Baz (TB): 8-5, 4.17 ERA — HR-prone (13 HR last 10 starts)
🔍 Tampa’s bullpen dominates with 2-strike situations, but hot weather and Steinbrenner Field’s hitter-friendly park favor runs.
💰 Odds: White Sox +186, Rays -231 | Total: 9

✅ Best Bet: Under 7.5 (-102)
🔹 Noah Cameron (KC): 3-4, 2.31 ERA — 1.00 WHIP, 2 ER or less in 8 of 10 starts
🔹 Ryan Brasier (CHC): 0-0, 1.04 ERA — opener role
🔍 Wrigley Field playing pitcher-friendly with winds in. Both teams pitching well (ERAs under 3.60 last 10).
💰 Odds: Royals +122, Cubs -148 | Total: 7.5

✅ Best Bet: Over 8.5 (-116)
🔹 Jacob Lopez (OAK): 3-5, 4.20 ERA — shaky control
🔹 Jack Leiter (TEX): 5-6, 4.37 ERA — inconsistent but flashes upside
🔍 Oakland’s bullpen leads MLB in walk rate (11%). Globe Life has played hitter-friendly lately.
💰 Odds: Athletics +104, Rangers -126 | Total: 8.5

✅ Best Bet: Over 11.5 (-115)
🔹 Michael McGreevy (STL): 1-1, 4.22 ERA — rookie debut at Coors
🔹 Austin Gomber (COL): 0-3, 5.65 ERA — 7.36 ERA at home
🔍 Coors Field inflates runs (highest park factor, 1.317). Rockies are 12-37 at home but games tend to go Over here.
💰 Odds: Cardinals -156, Rockies +128 | Total: 11.5

✅ Best Bet: Over 9.0 (-105)
🔹 Colton Gordon (HOU): 3-2, 4.67 ERA — better on road (3.82)
🔹 Zac Gallen (ARI): 7-10, 5.40 ERA — 24 HR allowed
🔍 Arizona’s Suárez (4 HR in last 2 games) anchors a lineup slugging .464 vs RHP (best in MLB). Chase Field’s gaps favor offense.
💰 Odds: Astros +122, Diamondbacks -149 | Total: 9

🔥 Top Pick: Brewers ML (+104)
🔹 Brandon Woodruff (MIL): 1-0, 2.61 ERA — 18 Ks in 10.1 IP
🔹 George Kirby (SEA): 4-4, 4.50 ERA — vulnerable to HR
🔍 Brewers are on a 10-game win streak with Chourio riding a 14-game hit streak. Milwaukee has NL’s best road OBP (.337) and handles close games well (19-12 in 1-run games).
💰 Odds: Brewers +104, Mariners -127 | Total: 7

✅ Best Bet: Over 9.0 (-102)
🔹 David Festa (MIN): 3-3, 5.25 ERA — shaky but solid last outing
🔹 Shohei Ohtani (LAD): 0-0, 1.00 ERA — ~75–80 pitch limit in 2nd start
🔍 Both lineups have shown pop lately, and Ohtani is still ramping up. Twins rank dead-last hitting vs pitchers 3rd time through.
💰 Odds: Twins +160, Dodgers -198 | Total: 9

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