Today's MLB Rundown + Best Bets

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Brewers/Dodgers Under 8.5 (-109) – 9:10 PM
Freddy Peralta (2.66 ERA) and Emmet Sheehan (2.03 ERA) meet in LA, with Milwaukee riding an 8-game win streak and both teams combining for just 2 runs Friday. Another pitcher’s duel looms.

White Sox/Pirates Under 8.5 (-118) – 6:40 PM
Adrian Houser (1.56 ERA) faces a Pirates offense hitting just .180 over their last 10. With two of MLB’s weakest lineups and Houser’s dominance, runs should be scarce.

Orioles/Rays Over 9.0 (-110) – 7:05 PM
Dean Kremer has a 4.89 road ERA and has allowed 18 HR this year, while Tampa just put up 11 runs. With both teams flashing power and shaky pitching, expect fireworks in Tampa.

All times EDT

✅ Best Bet: Under 8.0 (-113)
🔹 Logan Webb (SF): 9-6, 2.94 ERA — allowed 6+ hits in 5 straight
🔹 Eric Lauer (TOR): 4-2, 2.78 ERA — 26.4% K rate, 6+ Ks in 4 of last 5
🔍 Toronto blanked SF 4–0 Friday and Lauer’s form combined with Giants’ league-worst .213 AVG vs LHP points to another low-scoring battle.
💰 Odds: Giants -115, Blue Jays -106 | Total: 8.0

✅ Best Bet: Over 9.0 (-122)
🔹 Nick Martinez (CIN): 7-9, 4.78 ERA — 8.47 ERA in July
🔹 Clay Holmes (NYM): 8-4, 3.31 ERA — .193 BAA at Citi Field
🔍 The Reds took Friday’s opener but Martinez’s struggles and Soto’s power (.500 SLG in last 4) suggest plenty of runs. Mets boast MLB’s best home record (.688).
💰 Odds: Reds +147, Mets -181 | Total: 9.0

✅ Best Bet: Over 8.5 (-112)
🔹 Michael Wacha (KC): 4-9, 3.74 ERA — respectable ERA despite record
🔹 Cal Quantrill (MIA): 3-8, 5.62 ERA — vulnerable vs contact-heavy KC
🔍 Royals hitters strike out just 19% of the time (2nd-best) while Miami has MLB’s lowest P/PA. KC’s disciplined bats should expose Quantrill.
💰 Odds: Royals -131, Marlins +107 | Total: 8.5

✅ Best Bet: Over 9.5 (-115)
🔹 Yusei Kikuchi (LAA): 4-6, 3.11 ERA — allowed 3 ER in last start
🔹 Taijuan Walker (PHI): 3-5, 3.55 ERA — 5.06 ERA vs LAA historically
🔍 Both teams homered 3 times Friday. With LAA’s bullpen allowing a .436 SLG and Phillies’ bats hot, the over looks strong.
💰 Odds: Angels +108, Phillies -132 | Total: 9.5

🔥 Top Pick: Under 8.5 (-118)
🔹 Adrian Houser (CWS): 5-2, 1.56 ERA — stellar season
🔹 Mike Burrows (PIT): 1-3, 4.83 ERA — inconsistent
🔍 Both offenses rank near the bottom, and Houser’s dominance gives the under serious appeal in this battle of struggling squads.
💰 Odds: White Sox +112, Pirates -137 | Total: 8.5

✅ Best Bet: Over 9.0 (-112)
🔹 Yu Darvish (SD): 0-1, 6.48 ERA — still shaking off rust
🔹 Mitchell Parker (WSH): 5-10, 5.12 ERA — Nationals bullpen: 6.36 ERA at home
🔍 With two shaky starters and MLB’s worst bullpen ERA at home, this sets up for offense, especially late.
💰 Odds: Padres -143, Nationals +118 | Total: 9.0

🔥 Top Pick: Over 9.0 (-110)
🔹 Dean Kremer (BAL): 8-7, 4.24 ERA — 18 HR allowed, poor road splits
🔹 Zack Littell (TB): 8-7, 3.56 ERA — solid control, back-to-back QS
🔍 Tampa crushed 11 runs Friday, and Kremer’s home-run issues plus Baltimore’s .281 opponent batting average points to another offensive slugfest.
💰 Odds: Orioles +104, Rays -126 | Total: 9.0

✅ Best Bet: Over 8.5 (-102)
🔹 Keider Montero (DET): 4-1, 4.02 ERA — road ERA: 4.88
🔹 Kumar Rocker (TEX): 3-4, 6.39 ERA — improving but still shaky
🔍 Both starters have WHIPs over 1.35 and the Tigers’ bullpen has unraveled recently, creating scoring chances on both sides.
💰 Odds: Tigers -102, Rangers -119 | Total: 8.5

✅ Best Bet: Over 9.0 (-102)
🔹 Luis Severino (OAK): 2-11, 5.16 ERA — struggles continue
🔹 Logan Allen (CLE): 6-7, 4.00 ERA — modest stability
🔍 Both teams have seen an uptick in offense lately, and Oakland starters own the second-worst OPS allowed vs RHB.
💰 Odds: Athletics +118, Guardians -143 | Total: 9.0

✅ Best Bet: Under 9.0 (-113)
🔹 Brayan Bello (BOS): 6-3, 3.14 ERA — 2.21 ERA in July
🔹 Shota Imanaga (CHC): 6-3, 2.65 ERA — 0.93 WHIP, 2.08 home ERA
🔍 Both pitchers are in sharp form and Wrigley’s been pitcher-friendly this year (.898 run factor).
💰 Odds: Red Sox +123, Cubs -149 | Total: 9.0

✅ Best Bet: Under 8.5 (-111)
🔹 Sonny Gray (STL): 9-3, 3.50 ERA — 2.64 ERA over last 10
🔹 Ryne Nelson (ARI): 5-2, 3.68 ERA — 2.43 ERA over last 6
🔍 Both starters have been excellent lately and Chase Field has played neutral. Contact-heavy offenses may struggle to score big.
💰 Odds: Cardinals -121, Diamondbacks -101 | Total: 8.5

✅ Best Bet: Under 9.5 (-112)
🔹 Will Warren (NYY): 6-5, 4.63 ERA — 2.86 ERA in June
🔹 Joey Wentz (ATL): 2-1, 6.32 ERA — likely short outing
🔍 Despite Friday’s 7-3 Braves win, Warren’s strikeout ability and Atlanta’s modest 4.11 RPG suggest fewer runs.
💰 Odds: Yankees -131, Braves +107 | Total: 9.5

✅ Best Bet: Over 11.5 (-110)
🔹 Zebby Matthews (MIN): 1-1, 5.21 ERA — returning from injury
🔹 Antonio Senzatela (COL): 3-13, 6.60 ERA — MLB’s loss leader
🔍 At Coors, with two vulnerable arms and Senzatela’s league-worst record, offense should come easy.
💰 Odds: Twins -192, Rockies +156 | Total: 11.5

🔥 Top Pick: Under 8.5 (-109)
🔹 Freddy Peralta (MIL): 11-4, 2.66 ERA — 7 straight QS
🔹 Emmet Sheehan (LAD): 1-0, 2.03 ERA — strong return from TJ
🔍 Brewers won 8 straight and held LA to 3 hits Friday. Both arms in form and bats quiet in the opener favor another low total.
💰 Odds: Brewers +118, Dodgers -144 | Total: 8.5

✅ Best Bet: Under 8.0 (-112)
🔹 Lance McCullers Jr. (HOU): 2-4, 6.48 ERA — but 3-0 vs SEA last 5
🔹 Logan Evans (SEA): 3-3, 3.75 ERA — 2.28 ERA at home
🔍 With T-Mobile’s run-suppressing environment and both starters having past success here, expect a tight, low-scoring AL West clash.
💰 Odds: Astros +108, Mariners -132 | Total: 8.0

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